I still expect a correction into March, but I think I've been too early on this one.
I'm going to say something here, and I don't want you to think it as being condescending as was the case before:
When the McClellan Summation Index is as high as it is right now, it is downright impossible for an opposing trend to develop, no less, more than anything of a 2 day rest against the direction of the prevailing trend. It is what it is. It's the physics that drives the markets. Today was a good example of this buoyancy...a hard sell off followed by an equal and opposite move once the selling pressure was relived. It's like taking a basketball into the deep end of a swimming pool - you may be able to push it below the water level, but if you let up in any way, its going to rise back up to the surface. The more energy you apply to this same object, and the deeper you try to go, the faster and higher the rebound will be once it moves back up above the surface.
So...you might get your correction into March, but the real question becomes: from what level will this correction start?
Then you'll have these additional questions: how much will this correction cover? Will it be one of price, time, or both?
Without knowing the trend of liquidity and its buoyancy, questions like this are extremely difficult to answer no matter how good you are or how much experience you have. Your opinion, my opinion, everyone's opinion is only tradable IF the market dynamics suggest that it can be accomplished. This is why it's highly important to follow the rhythm of the markets and fight the urge of trying to outsmart it. You won't be able to. Far better to go with what the market gives you than to try to force your opinion on what it should do and when it should do it.
You'll eventually be right, I suppose, it's logical and reasonable. But everything in this business is based on timing. You can either swim with the tide, or fight your way to shore. Personally, I've found it's far easier to just go with flow and let others battle it out between the whys and wherefores as personal opinion is given little respect towards your trading accounts bottom line.
Fib