35 replies to this topic

[arbman]

It only bounced back to 1141 or previous support to test it as resistance so far, I am thinking we will double this drop down tomorrow 1147-(1147-1137)x2 = 1127... Kind of makes sense if this is a corrective C-wave of the A-B-C since Monday's high for now, if it is still on an uptrend... If we open below 1137, it will be fast and furious --it seems like this is what they are trying... Some of this decline may conclude on Tuesday, but more importantly, if SPX cash 1131 is taken next week with some momentum, the top should remain for 5-6 weeks from here at least until March, in my measures, it opens the door to sub-1100 toward the 1050-1060 target for my I/T top expectation... I really do not think then the supports around 1115 gap, or 1090 gap will hold for the correction, ideally 100 points from 1150...

Edited by arbman, 15 January 2010 - 07:43 AM.

[zoropb]

not sure yet arbs working on it but ti has been fast traded for 3 fast ones and drop to 40% on 1138.75

[zoropb]

arbs I am 50/50 here this drop ends around 1137 or 33 and up into next week. I do not like that we did not make a new high that is why I am not trusting this drop much past 37 It is looking like a diagonal continues mind F%&# for shorts if I am correct that is .

Edited by zoropb, 15 January 2010 - 08:14 AM.

[arbman]

Actually correction there, probably 1147-(1147 - 1141) x 2 = 1135... ATR(5) = 12 points range is very reasonable for this weak open from yesterday's high... I will cover everything around ES Dec 1133-1135 for now. I think a break below 1137 will create enough new bears and selling from the longs. Tomorrow's sell off is more of a technical event from the option expiration point of view. The fair range is probably around 1133-1135 there anyway...

Edited by arbman, 15 January 2010 - 08:13 AM.

[zoropb]

Actually correction there, probably 1147-(1147 - 1141) x 2 = 1135...

ATR(5) = 12 points range is very reasonable for this weak open from yesterday's high...

I will cover everything around ES Dec 1133-1135 for now. I think a break below 1137 will create enough new bears and selling from the longs. Tomorrow's sell off is more of a technical event from the option expiration point of view. The fair range is probably around 1133-1135 there anyway...

I just stare at my charts arbs

just put 10% back that I dumped at 1138.75 /1141.75 50% again

[arbman]

My guess is we will dump and see the 1137 level just for the heck of it at the open, if the govt cannot support and the market breaks below it, then we may see a sell off... I have a feeling that they will support and we will briefly dip below it... CPI did not create an upside impulse, there isn't really anything left from here, but about 5 points downside adjustment. I think the bond sales and the subsequent lift up says the tame inflation was already priced...

[selecto]

The backdoor bailouts were necessary if Geithner wanted to become Secretary of the Treasury. He was hardly going to get the job if he started haggling with GS.

[zoropb]

My guess is we will dump and see the 1137 level just for the heck of it at the open, if the govt cannot support and the market breaks below it, then we may see a sell off... I have a feeling that they will support and we will briefly dip below it... CPI did not create an upside impulse, there isn't really anything left from here, but about 5 points downside adjustment. I think the bond sales and the subsequent lift up says the tame inflation was already priced...

yeah I was going to say your cutting it close.


boy the 10 yr around 4.1 yield has to kill the equities if it gets there. I would think a pile of $ goes in around there. At the same time nuking the housing efforts until it drops again.

[zoropb]

The backdoor bailouts were necessary if Geithner wanted to become
Secretary of the Treasury. He was hardly going to get the job if he
started haggling with GS.

No doubt about that S


dumped 10% 1140 from 1141.75 figured since I was posting would do these 2 hours of trades for kicks

[zoropb]

bailed 1139 gap close and see what happens dont have a clue st better to be out and take the points man that was lots of them from yesterday