Jump to content



Photo

Where and when does a bottom form?


  • Please log in to reply
62 replies to this topic

#1 senorBS

senorBS

    Member

  • TT Member+
  • 10,938 posts

Posted 21 January 2010 - 11:31 AM

Senor is muy happy this smash in mining stocks is happening? A muy bueno buying opp should present itself, Senor prefers to be late rather than early this time. XAU 155 first target is not far away, 146 after that. Thinking Monday/Tuesady at earliest for a bottom. Other thoughts? PURE BS Senor

#2 dougie

dougie

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,040 posts

Posted 21 January 2010 - 11:37 AM

the one thought NO one seems to be proposing ( Prechter you alive? <;) is serious deflation here and now

#3 senorBS

senorBS

    Member

  • TT Member+
  • 10,938 posts

Posted 21 January 2010 - 11:54 AM

the one thought NO one seems to be proposing ( Prechter you alive? <;)
is serious deflation here and now



oh it is in the back of Senor's mind which is why he won't "buy early", gold 650 is the muy, muy nasty disaster possibility but also the buy of a lifetime if it happened.

BSing away

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 21 January 2010 - 11:55 AM.


#4 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,611 posts

Posted 21 January 2010 - 12:39 PM

amazing to me that prechter is even considered. this guy has not been correct on anything for decades. yes, @some point he will be correct. but, who has the deep pockets or the inclination to wait @the crest of the wave came out @dow 6k and he said to short it then. its more than a decade and those suckers are deep in the hole this guy is one of the greatest self promoters to ever walk the face of the earth. lucky for me i subscribed @the bond bottom in 84. since then it has been down the steep slope sure, consider prechter! i have a bridge that is for sale! dharma

#5 senorBS

senorBS

    Member

  • TT Member+
  • 10,938 posts

Posted 21 January 2010 - 01:12 PM

amazing to me that prechter is even considered. this guy has not been correct on anything for decades.
yes, @some point he will be correct. but, who has the deep pockets or the inclination to wait
@the crest of the wave came out @dow 6k and he said to short it then. its more than a decade and those suckers are deep in the hole
this guy is one of the greatest self promoters to ever walk the face of the earth. lucky for me i subscribed @the bond bottom in 84.
since then it has been down the steep slope
sure, consider prechter!
i have a bridge that is for sale!
dharma



Relax, Dougie just mentioned it as a possibility, no more. and si, Senor understands it is possible but also muy unlikely. I always try to consider all possibilities, even ones I think have very little chance of happening - just like the 2008 end of year collapse in the gold stocks. Did any of us think that was within the realm of any possibility? Always a good idea to never be over confident in any forecast, my dos centavos.

BSing away

Senor

#6 laza

laza

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 128 posts

Posted 21 January 2010 - 01:28 PM

Even Prechter says it's okay to hold a little gold...as insurance...even if deflation is the real threat.

#7 goldfungus

goldfungus

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 538 posts

Posted 21 January 2010 - 01:42 PM

the one thought NO one seems to be proposing ( Prechter you alive? <;)
is serious deflation here and now



oh it is in the back of Senor's mind which is why he won't "buy early", gold 650 is the muy, muy nasty disaster possibility but also the buy of a lifetime if it happened.

BSing away

Senor


I think $875 is the lowest we go - check out Carl Futia's blog. And I agree it will be the buy of a lifetime.

#8 dougie

dougie

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,040 posts

Posted 21 January 2010 - 05:55 PM

875 would be a world of hurt for bugs, many of whom are loaded here. dharma can rest easy long from 2001 dharma: as you saw, i mentioned prechter tongue in cheek. you told us you were fully loaded two days ago. things turned down as you thought they might in to a 26th low? so at what level would you say you were wrong or is it more about cycles than price?

#9 senorBS

senorBS

    Member

  • TT Member+
  • 10,938 posts

Posted 22 January 2010 - 09:23 AM

as of Wednesday the HGNSI was still at a grande 60.9% Bulls - where's the capitulation? I don't have the data for yesterday's decline south of the dec low border, but until bullish sentiment comes down mucho I ain't interested in the long side. BSing away Senor

#10 dougie

dougie

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,040 posts

Posted 22 January 2010 - 11:30 AM

huge volume on this am buying in GDX.