Jump to content



Photo

"40 Year Cycle as it applies to the coming Depression"


  • Please log in to reply
23 replies to this topic

#11 goldswinger

goldswinger

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,612 posts

Posted 24 January 2010 - 05:01 PM

Also, thanks Roger for the Terry Laundry post. Interesting audios. 2013 has been a number a few longer term analysts have been talking about as a bottom. His 39-42-80 analysis is compelling.


I am starting to think here, every guru in the planet thinks 2013 will be the year of the low. Now given the market's tendency to not go with the consensus and also given the accelerated nature of things these days, how about 2011/2012 being the year of the lows with a secondary low in 2013 perhaps at a higher level. If that's the case, any protracted decline might take 2 years or so, which would point to this year being the begginning of the decline....it would jibe nicely with wave E completing in the immediate timeframe if not last week.

GS.

#12 dasein

dasein

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,696 posts

Posted 24 January 2010 - 05:49 PM

yeah, pretty compelling thoughts, GS, but the main question is - what is BOK? ;)
best,
klh

#13 milbank

milbank

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,714 posts

Posted 24 January 2010 - 06:09 PM

yeah, pretty compelling thoughts, GS, but the main question is - what is BOK?

;)


:lol:
Cute K. Very Cute. ;)

"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
--George Bernard Shaw


"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free."
--Johann Wolfgang von Goethe


#14 arbman

arbman

    Quant

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 19,504 posts

Posted 24 January 2010 - 08:04 PM

In the last 3rd of his 2nd audio, he discusses the "monoculture" of traders all looking at the same charts and indicators trading against themselves while GS trades against them while China trades against us all and opines that his "Best Bond Strategy" is his solution to those problems.


GS may be engaged that kind of trading, but it really isn't against the small potato day traders.

INSTEAD, what GS does is to buy an insane amount of futures ahead of the govt injections and then sell the equity to the govt pension funds etc and then dump their leveraged trades thereafter. What this does is most of the govt injection practically goes to GS's leveraged trades. Not really the injection becomes a new liquidity for the market and economy...

If the govt really wants to reflate the markets, they have to by pass the BANKS AND STOCKS and inject to the small business with direct lending facilities. This is obviously open to great fraud, so they can use the banks as the intermediary ONLY to audit the institutions that are participating to direct govt borrowing...

Of course the other alternative is to BLOCK such companies as GS from participating to both trading for firm in their so called "propriety" trading algorithms AND advising the govt pension and public funds. In essence, these companies simply front run the govt public funds what they used to do to the private funds during the bull markets. Now the govt owns more assets than ever and in fact the govt prints and buys more assets than any other private entity since the printing benefits nobody but the govt itself!

The bystander who gets killed due to all this printing is obviously the tax payer.

#15 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,863 posts

Posted 24 January 2010 - 11:26 PM

I do believe that GS and the boys know which way the crowd is leaning and fade 'em.

BOK is the Bank of Oklahoma Center built a little over a year ago.
BOK Center named No. 8 in nation for ticket sales
The BOK Center was ranked No. 8 in the nation and No. 20 worldwide in 2009 arena ticket sales by industry tracker Pollstar.

Tulsa lauded as strong city
The oil and gas industry has played a key role in helping Tulsa weather the recession, according to a new BusinessWeek study that ranks the metro area near the top of the 40 strongest in the nation.

I showed my 17 year old grandson the photo of Sir Paul and asked him if he knew who Paul McCartney is.
He said, "Isn't he a country singer?"

Posted Image
Posted Image

A new ball park is being finished a few blocks away.
Posted Image

Edited by Rogerdodger, 24 January 2010 - 11:33 PM.


#16 Trendy

Trendy

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 400 posts

Posted 25 January 2010 - 09:26 AM

THE NEXT BUBBLE? We've seen the internet stock bubble, the beanie baby bubble, the oil bubble, and others. Now, what about the sports bubble? Tickets, salaries, new stadiums/arenas have all turned into one big bubble in my opinion.

#17 goldswinger

goldswinger

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,612 posts

Posted 25 January 2010 - 09:35 AM

THE NEXT BUBBLE?

We've seen the internet stock bubble, the beanie baby bubble, the oil bubble, and others. Now, what about the sports bubble? Tickets, salaries, new stadiums/arenas have all turned into one big bubble in my opinion.



Not unlike the Roman Empire Arenas.....to keep the masses appeased.

GS.

#18 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,863 posts

Posted 25 January 2010 - 10:03 AM

Saw Avatar at Imax. Bought tickets Saturday to see Sunday because all the tickets are still sold out a day early @ $12.75. Many said they had seen before and were coming back. It's real 3-D escapism. B)

#19 liberatorium

liberatorium

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 208 posts

Posted 25 January 2010 - 01:15 PM

Also, thanks Roger for the Terry Laundry post. Interesting audios. 2013 has been a number a few longer term analysts have been talking about as a bottom. His 39-42-80 analysis is compelling.


I am starting to think here, every guru in the planet thinks 2013 will be the year of the low. Now given the market's tendency to not go with the consensus and also given the accelerated nature of things these days, how about 2011/2012 being the year of the lows with a secondary low in 2013 perhaps at a higher level. If that's the case, any protracted decline might take 2 years or so, which would point to this year being the begginning of the decline....it would jibe nicely with wave E completing in the immediate timeframe if not last week.

GS.



not that I'm a guru (or trying to be), but I have 2013 as a high.. TT
I have much respect for Laundry however, and wish we were in agreement.
looking for a quick and brutal 5th wave down, of C since the 2000 top, then up and away.. TT

lib
"The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to
be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks."
Lord Acton

#20 SilentOne

SilentOne

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 3,452 posts

Posted 25 January 2010 - 03:14 PM

I'm no guru either. But my cycles tend to agree with you liberatorium. A nine year Hurst cycle low is due late 2011/2012, but the nominal low could come this summer at the next 18 month cyce low for the $SPX. Right now I have it as a low and Landry as a high.

http://investorshub....age_id=45754598

cheers,

john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain