Jump to content



Photo

SPX monthly outlook, February 2010


  • Please log in to reply
7 replies to this topic

#1 stanley

stanley

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 161 posts

Posted 31 January 2010 - 12:56 AM

SPX monthly outlook, February 2010

- Crafting the rhythms

Year of Tiger - February 14, 2010 - February 2, 2011.
The first day of the lunar New Year 2010 falls on the 14th day of February, which is Saint Valentine's Day, a day of romance.

Spring Festival Overture - Performed by "Symphonieorchester their Wiener Volksoper" at Vienna Golden Hall in early 2003.

Full Moon for February, 28, 16:38

Photo: immerse in the mist (credit: hankvision )

February outlook in essence

Index enters the crosscurrent zone but it is still not far from the January Top. Taking positions endures some risks. That's just the way it is. Resistance 1084, 1103-1110. Index surmounts 1132 will invalidate the downward correction, pivot 1119. Supports 1062/1064, 1043/1036, 1001.
The SPX is moving below the 50SMA (1114 as of 01/29) but far from 200SMA (1014 as of 01/29), therefore, 1K evel is a strong support.

Classical charts

constructs the full stochastic chart with two sets of parameters [21,8,13], [42,16,26].
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
archive Nov 28 2009, 11:51 PM
The chart gives an impression that the current rally has some more leg to go,
chart: http://traders-talk....-1259478634.jpg
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here is the update chart (weekly)
The stochastic chart indicates some early weakness but the lower set has no cross yet.
feb_char04.JPG

Fibonacci retracements & Wave projections

Feb_chart06.JPG

Market moved ahead of itself due to the economies has moved from dire to a relative mix of positive/negative signals. But, unless fundamental conditions turn down again quickly, we may see index run into some sort of correction, not a full speed downward movement; Set aside the debate of bull/bear, this correction is a good swing trade opportunity. To draw the conclusion that the counter trend wave is complete, index needs to dive below 1000 decisively, or a more conservative number, 960.

Crafting the rhythms

The 105/109 trading day cycle

I have mentioned the 105/109 trading days cycle couple times. The mathmeatical linkage is 100 * PI / 3 = 105; The observed length has an averaged length in 107 trading days, in two incidents, in the length of 2 * 106/109.

Examples:
Feb_chart01.JPG
original charts Dec 6 2008, 05:02 PM and Nov 3 2009, 07:59 AM

King Wen sequence (hexagrams divination) [1], King Wen of Zhou , named Ji Chang 1099–1050 BC was the founder of the Zhou Dynasty China.

The King Wen sequence has been studied by many historians and applied in Numerology. I found a nice paper written by J.M. Berger , title “The 108 in King Wen's Sequence“ [3]. In his paper, he suggested a King Wen circular arrangement of the ba gua (eight trigrams). The King Wen ba gua contains a "magic square" number scheme. The numbers correlates the 105/109 trading day cycle.

Here is the pictorial explanation:
Feb_chart03.JPG
There are 218 (trading) days between 03/06/09 and 01/14-19/10 (double peaks, 1150.45 on 01/19, 1150.41 on 01/14), thus 2 * 109. The Low to Low deployed 85 (trading) days and 82 (trading) days. There are a few other numbers embeds in the chart. I did not collect enough sample sizes to say that there is a strong historical statistical correlation. Here is the interesting question: Could index mark the “next” low 81 (trading) days counting from 11/02? why not 63? 72? If it is 63, then index is in the window; picks 72, it is due on 02/17. If 81 recurs, it is due on 03/01, the Bradley turn date!

[1] The King Wen sequence (文王卦序, King Wen hexagrams divination sequence)
http://en.wikipedia....ng_Wen_sequence
[2] King Wen: Change And Symmetry
http://iching.egople...w-symmetry.html
[3] The 108 in King Wen's Sequence By J.M. Berger
http://iching.egople.../hidden108.html

Probing Q1/10

The key zone to watch is 1010-1001 and 951-965.

Long PI dates details
04/13/10
09/17/10

Bradley turn dates graph
03/01/10
08/10/10

Saturn-Uranus opposition- http://www.astrology...turnuranus.html
04/26/10
07/23/10

Partial list
feb_chart05.JPG

Footnote:

[ Claude Monet ]
"A color that I had found and sketched on one of these canvases yesterday reappears in the air. I am quickly given this painting and strive to fix this vision as permanently as possible. But it usually vanishes as fast as it sprang up, making way for another color I had already painted days ago on another study instantly put in front of me... And that is the way it is all day long." "The motif's essential is the of water whose aspect is constantly being modified by the changing sky reflected in it, and which imbues it with life and movement."

#2 stanley

stanley

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 161 posts

Posted 31 January 2010 - 02:51 PM

In retrospective mode

The Fibonacci Time Zone 0.618 nailed the peak correctly. Index marked an intraday high 1150.45 on 01/19, it is 8 points lower than the wave projection number 1158. Monthly low 1,071.59 was observed on 01/29, it is 8 points higher than 1064, but, this is an in-progress event.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dec 31 2009, 12:51 PM
link to SPX monthly outlook, January 2010

January outlook in essence
SPX 1158 is an unrealized wave target (1158-1175). The resistance is 1132, 1144. The first line support moves up to 1103, then 1090, and 1064. The near term pivot is 1117

Oct 22 2009, 03:49 PM
link
you can see there are not much nested zones in between 1100-1200; therefore, 1150 may well be bulls’ next assault target http://traders-talk....-1256254812.jpg
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#3 stanley

stanley

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 161 posts

Posted 31 January 2010 - 10:33 PM

read from somewhere, the influence by the last two Saturn/Uranus opposition alignment is getting weaker. I am not an astrologist so I have avoided to interpreting the nature of these events. There is a puzzle between the long PI date (shown in the chart, to be due on 04/13) and the Bradley turn date (03/01). The relationship is indiscernible at this moment. The No.4 alignmnet date is too close to 04/13, something is coming.

background info:

Saturn-Uranus opposition- http://www.astrology...turnuranus.html
04 Nov 2008 11/21/08 low
05 Feb 2009 03/06/09 low
15 Sep 2009 insignificant
26 Apr 2010
26 July 2010

pi.JPG

#4 SilentOne

SilentOne

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 3,452 posts

Posted 01 February 2010 - 09:25 AM

hi stanley,

Thanks for posting your thoughts.

The No.4 alignmnet date is too close to 04/13, something is coming.


I agree. That is my theme for 2010. The period from May to August will be very interesting. I just don't know what is coming, but I assume it is USD/FED/ or policy related. It won't be commodity friendly, and by entension I assume it won't good for stocks etc.

cheers,

john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#5 stanley

stanley

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 161 posts

Posted 04 February 2010 - 08:36 PM

SPX intraday low 1,062.78 on 02/04

the next few sessions is critical for bulls

1150 -- 1072 [length 78]
1072 -- 1104.73 [0.41, ideal case 0.404]
1104 -- ??, in progress, see prognosis

prognosis:
move half of 78, will park on 1065, a cluster of FIB points.
0.786 1042
1.236 1007
----------------------------------------------
Jan 30 2010, 09:56 PM [post #1 in this thread]
Resistance 1084, 1103-1110
Supports 1062/1064, 1043/1036, 1001.
FIB table: http://traders-talk....-1264914983.jpg
----------------------------------------------

Another time window in 02/17.
----------------------------------------------
Jan 30 2010, 09:56 PM [post #1 in this thread]
Here is the interesting question: Could index mark the “next” low 81 (trading) days counting from 11/02? ... If 81 recurs, it is due on 03/01, the Bradley turn date! Picks 72 it is due on 02/17.
----------------------------------------------

Someting is embedding in this current decline, its "script" may be different from the late July's decline.
tm.JPG

#6 stanley

stanley

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 161 posts

Posted 06 February 2010 - 06:48 PM

02/06 Weekend update

Up to 02/05, index “visited” a few key FIB points: 1103 (1104), 1090, 1044 (1042), and 1071. In Friday’s session, index marked an intraday low 1044.5 ( 2 points higher than 0.786) then bounced. The obvious resistance is 1074, with potential near term low target 1042-1026, 1007-976. refer to the chart shown below:

spx02052010.JPG

Road of mines

To explore the 2010 market trend, I divide the speculation focuses into two time zones. The first part is from 01/18 to 04/26. the second part is from 07/23 to 09/17. The month of May and June serves as a fulcrum that bridge the two time zones.

In the first time zone, the Fibonacci Time Zone 0.618 (refer to [1]) marked the January peak on time. The down trend has been confirmed [2][4].
Due to a few contradict signals, the trails in the first time zone is not easy to perceive. The remaining key dates are: 02/17, 03/01 (Bradley turn date], 04/13, and 04/26. I forgot the Martin Luther King, Jr. Day 01/18, and Good Friday April 2 are stock market holidays, so the dates in discussion has an offset of 2 trading days. don't expect an exact match, there is a few days +/- deviation.

The Long PI date ( details ) fails on 04/13 (shall be 04/15). Just take a small calculation, you will find out this particular date has another significance, thus, it is the Fibonacci Time Zone 0.786 date.

It is premature to speculate, but, I feel the second time zone (07/23 – 09/17) may not be as dire as some astrologers predicted ... ...

archive (indexcalls & traders-talk)
-------------------------------------------------------
[1] Nov 28 2009, 11:51 PM
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=495227
Fibonacci Time Zone ratio 0.618 due 01/18/10
From 10/11/07 (1576.09) to 03/06/09 (666.79), there were 352 trading days.
Use ratio 0.618, 352 * 0.618 = 218 trading days, it is due on January 18, 2010. This particular Time Zone ratio could give a good hint where is the broad direction heads to.

[2] Jan 21 2010, 12:43 PM
http://indexcalls.co...o...st&p=551772
Early signal: The critical support (pivot) 1117 has been “exercised”, as long as index does not climb above 1131 on the next attempt (a reference date could be 01/27),then, a sustainable downward movement may last until April with some bounces in between

[3] Jan 25 2010, 10:40 AM
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=503735
The trails in between now & then is not easy to perceive, however, The coming test date 01/27 may give a picture how the trend line shifting trajectory looks like

[4] Jan 28 2010, 11:56 AM
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=504366
The Astro event on 01/27 pretty much confirmed the downtrend

#7 stanley

stanley

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 161 posts

Posted 18 February 2010 - 04:14 PM

Intraday high 1108.24 on 02/18 0.618 Out of - 1150.45 (01/19)-1044.5 (02/05) is 1109.98 Date 02/17 supposed to be a low, now, it appears inverted, that means the next low would not be an elusive one. By considering the leading & lagging factors, the event on 04/15 [Long PI date] and 03/01 [The mysterious Bradley Siderograph Turn date] can overlap, therefore, the detail trails in between is not easy to perceive; so far, the Fibonacci Time Zone 0.618 nailed the January peak correctly. Just take a small calculation, you will find out April 15 has another significance, thus, it is the Fibonacci Time Zone 0.786 date. Quick recap: Index breached 1043 on 02/05 (actual 1044.5), now it is doing the back testing on 1110. ----------------------------------------------- Jan 30 2010, 09:56 PM Post #1 Index enters the crosscurrent zone but it is still not far from the January Top. Taking positions endures some risks. That is just the way it is. Resistance 1084, 1103-1110. Index surmounts 1132 will invalidate the downward correction, pivot 1119. Supports 1062/1064, 1043/1036, 1001.

#8 stanley

stanley

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 161 posts

Posted 23 February 2010 - 03:49 PM

Posted on: Feb 17 2010, 08:16 AM
link
Whether index can exceed 1104.74 decisively [>10 points, a subjective number], in terms of E-wave, can be interpreted quite differently. So far, it is a bearish movement.

Feb 18 2010, 01:14 PM post #7 in this thread
0.618 Out of - 1150.45 (01/19)-1044.5 (02/05) is 1109.98

Feb 13 2010, 02:00 PM
link
I will be a "full time" retiree from this coming March and sign off the web site, includes all other IDs.

Fibonacci retracement works reasonably well, when works together with E-wave, with occasional good extrapolation capability. Again, when links with moving average, cycles and Fibonacci Time zone, we may extend the speculation further into the time line; Astro has an indiscernible magic, its record of accomplishment tends debatable. Trading is for fun, so mixes with some Astro let the whole game become fascinating.

As stated on 02/06, I divide the speculation scope into two time zones. The first zone is from 01/18 to 04/26. The second zone is from 07/23 to 09/17. The month of May and June serves as a fulcrum that bridge the two time zones. I put the index movement in the first time zone as a correction category, the level to be observed are 1010-1001 and 951-965; the correction becomes a more serious decline if Index dives below 951, thus the scope of the second time zone.

Index marked an intraday low 1044.5 on 02/05, the mean vale between 1036 & 1053.
From the following chart, you may suggest that this decline so far is mild but may be incomplete.
Posted Image

The Long PI date 04/15 (after holiday adjustment) is compelling. Especially, it is very close to the No.4 opposition alignment between Saturn and Uranus (on 04/26). In 2009, the No.2 alignment occurred on 02/05, Index marked an important low on 03/06/2009.These Astro events give us some fuzzy hint, a perception between illusion and reality.

In 2008-2010, there are Saturn-Uranus opposition in exact alignments:
(1) 11/04/08
(2) 02/05/09
(3) 09/15/09
(4) 04/26/10
(5) 07/26/10

I did a “flow” chart for the last two alignments.
2010.JPG

Spring is coming
Here is a ZEN I posted on Feb 21 2010, 12:59 AM Link

ZEN - Love springs eternal

"Dreams are our wings that help us fly
As we walk to and fro
Back and forth
Round and round
In circles
In cycles
Of this life
Where we were born to live out our dreams
Our dreams that give us wings to fly"

Spring Dreams - Savannah Skye

"Hope springs eternal dreams that are born out of the Vernal Equinox. For Spring is the season in which the first realization of our dreams are felt. It is the time when all life is continuing along with us. "

"Now go outside and dance your dreams across the green grass under the vast blue skies. "

Posted Image
[uploaded photo size reduced]
http://static.panora...al/10464977.jpg
[use link - click to enlarge]

http://static.panora...al/10466138.jpg

Posted Image
http://static.panora...nal/6576241.jpg

Photo source from this excellent photo gallery:
http://www.panoramio.../photo/10468973

This is the closing post for SPX monthly outlook, February 2010