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WILL YOU BAIL OUT CALIFORNIA?


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Poll: California Bailout

California Bailout

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#21 pdx5

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Posted 11 February 2010 - 12:12 AM

And you are surprised in these poll results?


Didn't say I was surprised but fascinated by how people would rather suffer economic depression - given the narrowly specified premise of the poll.



Rumors of economic depression to follow bankruptcy of the GOVERNMENT of California are highly exaggerated.
The businesses, agriculture, mining, research & development, etc in CA will not go bankrupt just because the
state can't pay it's obligations.

It will be a hiccup, not a fatal heart attack to the economy. After going on a regimen of belt tightening and losing
a lot of fat, the patient will recover. Incumbent politicians will be highly vulnerable to defeats.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#22 TechMan

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Posted 11 February 2010 - 12:17 AM

Rumors of economic depression to follow bankruptcy of the GOVERNMENT of California are highly exaggerated.


I certainly hope so.

#23 Rogerdodger

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Posted 11 February 2010 - 12:48 AM

Fascinating... So far 65% overwhelmingly voted NO. Given the premise that the California Effect could induce financial catastrophe across the U.S., yet most people would rather suffer than bailing out a member of the union.
While I can appreciate the principle of it, I can not rationalize choosing economic depression over the bailout.


I think that you are assuming that a wad of our children's money will fix everything and not lead to an even deeper problem.
Many feel that these "bailouts" are actually worsening the final result, throwing good money after bad.

"Helping" an addict only enables him to continue his destructive course.

California's expense budget must be stripped top to bottom, to a bare minimum.
It is a choice they will be unwilling to make.

I wonder how many $150K a year bus drivers they have and how many million dollar baby sitters on state financed programs are out there?
Those people will not easily give up their gravy train.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 11 February 2010 - 12:49 AM.


#24 colours

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Posted 11 February 2010 - 01:00 AM

Here's how to fix California's problems :

http://cfecon.blogsp...alifornias.html

#25 Rogerdodger

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Posted 11 February 2010 - 01:15 AM

Here's how to fix California's problems :

http://cfecon.blogsp...alifornias.html


That video is evidence of the failure of California's nanny state legislation.
All those laws, and brain damage still happens. :lol:

"The land is free and the food is free and we can sell it."
Now if we just had maps of the US such as Africa and the Iraq...and South Carolina.

#26 TechMan

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Posted 11 February 2010 - 01:49 AM

Fascinating... So far 65% overwhelmingly voted NO. Given the premise that the California Effect could induce financial catastrophe across the U.S., yet most people would rather suffer than bailing out a member of the union.
While I can appreciate the principle of it, I can not rationalize choosing economic depression over the bailout.


I think that you are assuming that a wad of our children's money will fix everything and not lead to an even deeper problem.


Correct. That's one of the hypothesis for this poll.

#27 Rogerdodger

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Posted 11 February 2010 - 02:12 AM

I found a review of the 1997 Asian Contagion enlightening.
The IMF bailed them out.
What was the result?

"Although such reforms were, in most cases, long needed, the countries most involved ended up undergoing an almost complete political and financial restructuring. They suffered permanent currency devaluations, massive numbers of bankruptcies, collapses of whole sectors of once-booming economies, real estate busts, high unemployment, and social unrest. For most of the countries involved, IMF intervention has been roundly criticized. The role of the International Monetary Fund was so controversial during the crisis that many locals called the financial crisis the "IMF crisis".

So far the only thing California has not experienced are reforms and social unrest.
I'm saying the answers are neither clear nor easy as there will be unintended consequences to any action, or inaction.

Thus the term "Bailout" in the poll may need to be defined more precisely.
Just as "help" needs to be defined when speaking of "helping" an addict.
Enabling is never helpful. Sometimes it is helpful to say "NO".

Edited by Rogerdodger, 11 February 2010 - 02:17 AM.


#28 dasein

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Posted 11 February 2010 - 05:59 AM

I think the West in general and Americans in particular have so bought into the fantasy that you can do all the good moral positive helpful etc etc things they believe in and that somehow, because of the correctness of these actions, the deeds will be paid - by someone, preferably not them. At the same time, since the Reagan era, Americans have come to the conclusion that no one should really pay taxes to pay for anything because the government is so inept with money. So two ideas that cannot coexist really, coexist mentally with the help of the politicians promising it is so, and the banks also promising you can have all the money you need now and pay it back cheaper later. As individuals and a society we have not made any hard or realistic choices, since we havent had to and have been encouraged not to. In the old days, the West lived better than the rest of the world in large part because it was able to exploit the rest of the world, but that is no longer PC. We will have to rely on ingenuity and productivity, but in the last 40 years, the profits from productivity have been pretty much captured by the owners of capital, not the workers, and the limits are closing in. There is little wiggle room left. America is almost unique in that it taxes the international income of its citizens. If it is worth being in America or an American, you accept that. Saving California as is, is just like saving the big banks, but certainly no worse. They both reward past recklessness by taking the resources to do it from people who probably did not benefit from the recklessness. Drastically cutting services means hurting people in the future who may not have benefitted either. Similarly, renegging on Social Security is a betrayal of those who paid into it, believing the governments word. Any solution will be somewhat unfair. The least unfair solution to me, is to suspend tax statute of limitations and persue every tax abuse from the past, to remove all of the new and tax loopholes and all tax grants to business, to reintroduce the progressive income taxes of the 1970s with a max of say 70% on income over 15 million per year, to adjust SS payments to inflation without limit on income assessed and to levy a scaled one time wealth tax on those with assets over 500 million. Yes President Obama, tax the millions earned by star atheletes, and maybe bring back income averaging again for people with erratic short-lived careers, since this is still allowed for "corporate persons". Societies are only stable and democratic when there is a somewhat heterogeneous and solid middle class - what we have now is a marginalized middle class with segments played against each other, a huge underclass and an unprecedented small number who control most of the income, assets and power of the entire country. Meanwhile to avoid further California choices like this, we should make some constraints as to how much a state can go in debt, and move some responsibilities to the Fed - we have a very unusual federation, with states competing against each other and the fed - this can lead to bad results as we now see. and if we dont help california, the most troubled groups can just move to another state and bring their problems with them.

Edited by dasein, 11 February 2010 - 06:04 AM.

best,
klh

#29 stocks

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Posted 11 February 2010 - 07:56 AM

would you do what's necessary to bail California out?

ie, provide them the lifestyle to which they are entitled.

Lynne Curtin of 'The Real Housewives' of Orange County talks about her recent facelift and financial struggles


-- -
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change, 
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
 

#30 TechMan

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Posted 11 February 2010 - 08:51 AM

Societies are only stable and democratic when there is a somewhat heterogeneous and solid middle class - what we have now is a marginalized middle class with segments played against each other, a huge underclass and an unprecedented small number who control most of the income, assets and power of the entire country.

Hi dasein,

This piece rocks!!!

Agree or disagree, I applaud the thoughts and effort that you put into this post.

Thanks for the comment.

Posted Image

Edited by TechMan, 11 February 2010 - 08:52 AM.