33 replies to this topic

[porsche911sg]

If technical were right JL would not have written a book and he would not have died broken! The fact that he went broke and kept on to his long position when the bull market turned was enough reason not to use technicalls entirely

Sure... this is not my point though... I think you get my point... especially because you seem to recognize I am just using J.L's definitions as proxy's for age old descriptions

I get your point but how about focusing on the failures of technicals. Many times, they fail, these failures are enough to get a trader broke.

An overbought market can stay that way for some time, but the times are when we are at the bottom of the rally, An oversold market can also stay for some time. The best logical use of J.L methods are pivots points which is the only system I use to decided when i need to cut off my trade.

Price at pivots is the only way out. Since 1150 is taken out on friday, and friday closed down it's highly likely you will see 1135, 1115, 1105,1090 next week. Shorting at the the neckline say 1030 is a sure way to confirm you'll get broke if the the 'double top' is a failure.

Since no one on board is mentioning shorting at 1030-1040, why the mention of double tops?

Why not focus on the failures of technicals? I wasn't talking about that???

I really don't understand what you are talking about... overbought markets and oversold markets don't have a context in my trading strategy (I have said that the post was not trading advice) or J.Ls I used his definition because his has been around for ages... My strategy hasn't even been put on the table and I'm not making any argument for T.A over fundamentals or anything like you seem to be implyingh... If you don't think double tops have been called on this board I suggest you go back to thursday, friday and saturday's posts you will see this and others...

http://www.traders-t...howtopic=117044

If I was making any point is that those who have called a double top are early as we have only approached a pivot which may or may not fail... I think you are saying the same thing but somehow you also seem to think I've put in a plug for J.Ls stratgy, which is pivot point heavy anyways...
Are you sure you actually read the post entirely?

souelle


By the way read J.Ls biography, the man suffered from some serious mental illness that was probably more responsible for his downfalll than technicals...

Sorry but J.L techniques were rubbish at some point in time and his mental illness was cause by being depressed by his trades.

I did read his techniques when i was young time test and some time they work and when they don't it really burns.
I was pin pointing at other things I never call tops as major tops all calls are st.

Well I guess I pays not to call top or bottoms you're right in not asking anyone to call tops, I am sure if it fall back to 1100 a top will be called again.

Some called for double tops but a few post don't make up a majority. No knows when it tops out or when it bottoms and for how long.

I am not implying anything against your post but just stating alternatives of looking at things.

[selecto]

Porsche, as we are here on a technical analysis discussion forum, permit me to ask from what kind of analysis (pivot points?) do you derive the opinions on market direction that you post here? You make many calls, but never explain the underlying reasoning. Far as I can tell your stuff (whatever it is) has been NG at least since early February.

[TMN]

I recognize the ODR example I have show is not the clearest (sorry too quick)... I hope the point itself is still clear

is shanghai on the 4th of March 2010 a clear example?

or like brazil on friday?

[souelle6]

Sorry but J.L techniques were rubbish at some point in time and his mental illness was cause by being depressed by his trades.

I did read his techniques when i was young time test and some time they work and when they don't it really burns.
I was pin pointing at other things I never call tops as major tops all calls are st.

Well I guess I pays not to call top or bottoms you're right in not asking anyone to call tops, I am sure if it fall back to 1100 a top will be called again.

Some called for double tops but a few post don't make up a majority. No knows when it tops out or when it bottoms and for how long.

I am not implying anything against your post but just stating alternatives of looking at things.

Ok Porsche but lets be reasonable... Livermore once owned over 90% of the cotton in the U.S simply through trading his standard line and building it... Many of his "techniques" are not back-testtable most of it was his intuition... I still don't know how we got on the topic of whether livermore's techniques worked... To reiterate for the third time now... I was only using his definitions as they were the oldest I could find and the value was in the timelessness of these definitions... Anyways

To tallk to selecto's point.... I have gone back and looked at your posts and you appear to have quite some opinons on when people are reading MACDs incorrectly or when the are not implying correct information from M.As... I find it inconsistent that someone could call another's market opinion incorrect because of their technical reading without themselves believing there is a correct way to infer market movements from technicals... You seem to be dogging my strategy but I haven't even said what it is, it is heavily thesis, special situation based anyways if you look at some of my recommendations...

Can you provide some more clairity on what I have perceived as inconsistencies

souelle

Edited by souelle6, 14 March 2010 - 12:04 PM.

[porsche911sg]

Porsche, as we are here on a technical analysis discussion forum, permit me to ask
from what kind of analysis (pivot points?) do you derive the opinions
on market direction that you post here? You make many calls, but never
explain the underlying reasoning.

Far as I can tell your stuff (whatever it is) has been NG at least since
early February.

I have to admit that the stuff was not working toward march.

My derivation and indicators were self derived, I am ding time analysis, Now the basis of the pivot was based on the number of time the prices were hit without falling through that price point. I have design my own properity programme.

My short or long call was based on insititional buying/selling. (market directions)
Large players are net short from january. Hence short in Jan.
Large players were fully hedge or stop short and turn long at 1050, hence I called for hedging.
I do check market breadth like nyad but they usually stop working at turns.

Right now, we have large shorts from the biggies, so likely we see a swift decline this coming week to expirations we could see 1100 or even 1093.. that's all for the moment.

I seldom use exact technicls as the usually fail at the critical area, to use technicals effectivly the internals must remain the same which cannot happen through out.

Fundamentals is secondary, the basis being the large players, I went fully short just before dubai as the big players went full short.

[porsche911sg]

Sorry but J.L techniques were rubbish at some point in time and his mental illness was cause by being depressed by his trades.

I did read his techniques when i was young time test and some time they work and when they don't it really burns.
I was pin pointing at other things I never call tops as major tops all calls are st.

Well I guess I pays not to call top or bottoms you're right in not asking anyone to call tops, I am sure if it fall back to 1100 a top will be called again.

Some called for double tops but a few post don't make up a majority. No knows when it tops out or when it bottoms and for how long.

I am not implying anything against your post but just stating alternatives of looking at things.

Ok Porsche but lets be reasonable... Livermore once owned over 90% of the cotton in the U.S simply through trading his standard line and building it... Many of his "techniques" are not back-testtable most of it was his intuition... I still don't know how we got on the topic of whether livermore's techniques worked... To reiterate for the third time now... I was only using his definitions as they were the oldest I could find and the value was in the timelessness of these definitions... Anyways

To tallk to selecto's point.... I have gone back and looked at your posts and you appear to have quite some opinons on when people are reading MACDs incorrectly or when the are not implying correct information from M.As... I find it inconsistent that someone could call another's market opinion incorrect because of their technical reading without themselves believing there is a correct way to infer market movements from technicals... You seem to be dogging my strategy but I haven't even said what it is, it is heavily thesis, special situation based anyways if you look at some of my recommendations...

Can you provide some more clairity on what I have perceived as inconsistencies

souelle

I am not critising your post but to talk of critising others talking about tops right now is premature, using your own methods, a double or tops would be far further from here. who knows right now.

I was also staing that there are times when techs work and than they don't. so why bother in arguing that the other posters are wrong. What if they were right that it's double top?

There so many different defination of tops and J.L method of tops, all I am saying is the the once they don't work it won't, that the reason for J.L failure which all i am stating.

trading is an art not science ther is no hard right and wrong.

[souelle6]

I recognize the ODR example I have show is not the clearest (sorry too quick)... I hope the point itself is still clear

is shanghai on the 4th of March 2010 a clear example?

or like brazil on friday?

Hey maxster... I took a look at Brazil from last friday with the EWZ... I was missing something from my definition (sorry)... The low should also be lower than the previous day's low... So last friday's Brazil movement falls short on that criteria... Also, you probably want to have something more defined if you're going to call it a one day reversal (like in the example)... In addition, like any movement, abnormal volume helps in identification...

souelle

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[souelle6]

I am not critising your post but to talk of critising others talking about tops right now is premature, using your own methods, a double or tops would be far further from here. who knows right now.

I was also staing that there are times when techs work and than they don't. so why bother in arguing that the other posters are wrong. What if they were right that it's double top?

There so many different defination of tops and J.L method of tops, all I am saying is the the once they don't work it won't, that the reason for J.L failure which all i am stating.

trading is an art not science ther is no hard right and wrong.

I think we're getting a little closer to being on the same page...
Fine, if we want to get into the nitty gritty there are many, many other ways to call tops than ODRs... Selcto has commented on that and although I may have not been clear my primary point was that in the SPY we are approaching a Pivot in which the story will take a couple more days to manifest itself... I thought it was clear that I wasn't saying the top wasn't in, I was saying that it is premature to be going all in and to think that just because the weekend came at a pivot doesn't mean that the pivot has failed... I'm not even trading the U.S broad market right now... I had just been taken aback by the amount of strength to which many posters were saying the top was definitely in... It's not the first time I've noticed this kind of behaviour when a pivot comes before a weekend... I stand by my point that it is too early to claim the pivot has failed but definitely understand how that point may have gotten lost amongst the other noise I put down... I think we're a lot more on the same trading page than you would think... My method of trading as I was saying is thesis based, I also follow trends, look for breaking points, trade swing and basically use my experience and intuition to tell me when there is money to be made... This post topic was out of character for me but like I have been saying I was really surprised at how fast some were calling the top and like I have said in previous topics I truly believe its a function of how badly some people want to go short...

souelle

Edited by souelle6, 14 March 2010 - 12:40 PM.

[porsche911sg]

I am not critising your post but to talk of critising others talking about tops right now is premature, using your own methods, a double or tops would be far further from here. who knows right now.

I was also staing that there are times when techs work and than they don't. so why bother in arguing that the other posters are wrong. What if they were right that it's double top?

There so many different defination of tops and J.L method of tops, all I am saying is the the once they don't work it won't, that the reason for J.L failure which all i am stating.

trading is an art not science ther is no hard right and wrong.

I think we're getting a little closer to being on the same page...
Fine, if we want to get into the nitty gritty there are many, many other ways to call tops than ODRs... Selcto has commented on that and although I may have not been clear my primary point was that in the SPY we are approaching a Pivot in which the story will take a couple more days to manifest itself... I thought it was clear that I wasn't saying the top wasn't in, I was saying that it is premature to be going all in and to think that just because the weekend came at a pivot doesn't mean that the pivot has failed... I'm not even trading the U.S broad market right now... I had just been taken aback by the amount of strength to which many posters were saying the top was definitely in... It's not the first time I've noticed this kind of behaviour when a pivot comes before a weekend... I stand by my point that it is too early to claim the pivot has failed but definitely understand how that point may have gotten lost amongst the other noise I put down... I think we're a lot more on the same trading page than you would think... My method of trading as I was saying is thesis based, I also follow trends, look for breaking points, trade swing and basically use my experience and intuition to tell me when there is money to be made... This post topic was out of character for me but like I have been saying I was really surprised at how fast some were calling the top and like I have said in previous topics I truly believe its a function of how badly some people want to go short...

souelle

We are on the same page even if 1150 is taken out and down to 1100 or even 1090, it cannot be called a double top.

There is a good chance 1150 would be taken out swiftly next week to 1100 but the top on LT maynot be insight. If you noticed many 'tops' were swiftly taken out be 50 spx points if they don't clear this round only to make a new high! just as swiftly.

I am short not for this function of a double top or whatever top, but I know the big players are short and I don't want to fight them. They can be wrong but trading on their side gives you a higher chance of winning.

[selecto]

We are talking the good old bearish engulfing, right?
Candlesticks may be merged, or one can use a 2 day chart. Will take some uncharacteristic down tomorrow to happen. See 'ya at 4.