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Arch and Laundry agree: Bad late summer


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#21 IYB

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Posted 21 March 2010 - 04:10 PM

Don, there are 4 big red numbers at the bottom of the chart.
Each reportedly point to bear markets.
#1 is The 1930's depression.
#2 is the 1870 Vienna Stock exchange crash followed by the sharpest European bear market of the 19th century.
#3 is this coming August.
#4 is the 1890's biggest bear market in 20 years.
(But I think you already know that.)

Those are interesting coincidences to me.
I only post it because Arch is mentioned by Laundry and Arch mentions the August Bradley.

It is Laundry's projections which interest/concern me.
I hope they are both wrong but we have some world-wide systemic problems which make their projections plausible, regardless of where Mars and Saturn are.

Thanks RD. I was just trying to determine whether you (via 70 year low in siderograph) were saying that August 2010 would be a HIGH or a LOW or whether that was undetermined. I am now told it can be either one or neither one. :)
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#22 .Blizzard

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Posted 21 March 2010 - 04:30 PM

Don, there are 4 big red numbers at the bottom of the chart.
Each reportedly point to bear markets.
#1 is The 1930's depression.
#2 is the 1870 Vienna Stock exchange crash followed by the sharpest European bear market of the 19th century.
#3 is this coming August.
#4 is the 1890's biggest bear market in 20 years.
(But I think you already know that.)

Those are interesting coincidences to me.
I only post it because Arch is mentioned by Laundry and Arch mentions the August Bradley.

It is Laundry's projections which interest/concern me.
I hope they are both wrong but we have some world-wide systemic problems which make their projections plausible, regardless of where Mars and Saturn are.

Thanks RD. I was just trying to determine whether you (via 70 year low in siderograph) were saying that August 2010 would be a HIGH or a LOW or whether that was undetermined. I am now told it can be either one or neither one. :)



This type of Bradley's low (secular low) marks a probable low in the market, due to the (extremely) negative planetary aspects

Attached Files


Edited by .Blizzard, 21 March 2010 - 04:34 PM.



the third movement is based on the Fibonacci sequence as this "written-out accelerando/ritardando" uses the rhythm 1:2:3:5:8:5:3:2:1.

#23 Rogerdodger

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Posted 21 March 2010 - 04:40 PM

Trader's Almanac: August is the 2nd worst DOW and S&P month since 1987 and the 5th worst Nasdaq month. For now Terry is projecting an August 20th top with a 3 1/2 month into mid December. The 13th T ending in August could fail early, with external events dictating. Who knows? I've said that my plan is to look for a low between now and April 1st with the intention of holding through Terry's May 20th T. It will be interesting to see if the Almanac's MACD cross down will actually be the top for the year. I'm thinking gold may be a big part of my position. However, August tends to be weak for gold as dentists and jewelry makers are on holiday. So it may be after that before new highs on gold.

#24 SilentOne

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Posted 21 March 2010 - 09:20 PM

http://www.traders-t...howtopic=117221

The monthly turn points discussed for gold seem to have been more than coincidence in the last decade. You'd have to consider that precious metals trading and bull/bear phases are influenced by something beyond this Earth. And of course you'd be part of a very insignificant minority.

cheers,

john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#25 tommyt

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Posted 21 March 2010 - 09:43 PM

IYB
If the market has been trending up or down into a turning point or bradley date you would look for a high point or a low point. You would then look for the trend to reverse on that date plus or minus a day.
Hope that helped.



Not quite...on a Bradley date, the trend can reverse OR accelerate in its current direction. Its still a traders dilemma.

#26 IYB

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Posted 21 March 2010 - 10:00 PM

IYB
If the market has been trending up or down into a turning point or bradley date you would look for a high point or a low point. You would then look for the trend to reverse on that date plus or minus a day.
Hope that helped.



Not quite...on a Bradley date, the trend can reverse OR accelerate in its current direction. Its still a traders dilemma.

Luckily for this trader, there's no dilemma at all. :lol:
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#27 CRUISENAL

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Posted 22 March 2010 - 12:44 PM

Hi Don,

I have been following The Bradley for several years now. I actually have the Standard Bradley charts in front of me since 2007 so 4 years worth. They key to understanding it is that a Bradley date is a date that implies a turning point. This may be at a high or it could be a low or a continuation of the current trend, so there should be a movement lower or higher from that day within 3/4 days either side of the date. The only chart I have is the Standard Version. If you buy Aminata's service, there are several Bradley charts. Why I don't know. There are MAJOR turning points on each yearly chart highlighted in BOLD print. These are usually significant turning points. For 2010 they are 3/01/2010, 8/10/2010 and 11/15-16/2010.

Here is a link to Bradley charts going back a ways. http://www.marketmul...ulticycles9.htm

I find sometimes they are very accurate dates, other times not so accurate, or I find no relationship to the market hardley at all. I see the same thing when we have Full Moons, New Moons, 1st QTR & Last QTR Moons as well. That being said, I suspect there are more things involved than just Bradley Dates and Moon Cycles that make the market move in one direction or the other.

Look at 3/01/2010, a Major Turn Date. Was it really? Probably YES. I would say 2/25/2010 was the day. That day was a Gap down and reversal and within the 3 to 4 day window.

But I like Elliott Wave personally, And I see that day 2/25/2010 as the bottom of Wave 2 in a Wave 1-5 structure off the Feb. 5 bottom of the larger Wave 4 low. So for me I see the market in a Wave 1-5 pattern since the March 2009 low, and the Feb 2010 pullback low as the Wave 4 low from the March 2009 low. That being said, we are in Wave 5 since Feb 5 and within that we are seeing another Wave 1-5. I currently see us in Wave 3 of that Wave 1-5. Since by today's market action, I do not see the top of Wave 3 yet, we will need to see a pullback, usually a 38.2% retracement of Wave 3. That is still hard to project until we see the Top of Wave 3. I had been thinking we are close to that top so I was thinking NDX 1950 area as a top for Wave 3, then a pullback to 1890 give or take. Then we would get a Wave 5 rally likely to a new yearly high before a final Top. When will that Top come. Who knows. Could be 1975 or maybe 2050 areas where the 2008 highs were. I have no clue. But right now it is too early to Short for a big trend. My next trade should be Long at the Wave 4 low.

This was probably all jibberish to you. But just thought I would throw it out there. I enjoy your posts and read them all the time. Alan





IYB
If the market has been trending up or down into a turning point or bradley date you would look for a high point or a low point. You would then look for the trend to reverse on that date plus or minus a day.
Hope that helped.



Not quite...on a Bradley date, the trend can reverse OR accelerate in its current direction. Its still a traders dilemma.

Luckily for this trader, there's no dilemma at all. :lol:



#28 IYB

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Posted 22 March 2010 - 08:46 PM

Hi Don,

I have been following The Bradley for several years now. I actually have the Standard Bradley charts in front of me since 2007 so 4 years worth. They key to understanding it is that a Bradley date is a date that implies a turning point. This may be at a high or it could be a low or a continuation of the current trend, so there should be a movement lower or higher from that day within 3/4 days either side of the date. The only chart I have is the Standard Version. If you buy Aminata's service, there are several Bradley charts. Why I don't know. There are MAJOR turning points on each yearly chart highlighted in BOLD print. These are usually significant turning points. For 2010 they are 3/01/2010, 8/10/2010 and 11/15-16/2010.

Here is a link to Bradley charts going back a ways. http://www.marketmul...ulticycles9.htm


IYB
If the market has been trending up or down into a turning point or bradley date you would look for a high point or a low point. You would then look for the trend to reverse on that date plus or minus a day.
Hope that helped.



Not quite...on a Bradley date, the trend can reverse OR accelerate in its current direction. Its still a traders dilemma.

Luckily for this trader, there's no dilemma at all. :lol:

Thanks Alan. I appreciate all of that. But I pretty much had understood it as you said. What I was really trying to determine was what was the implication of August 2010 siderograph being at a "70 year LOW". But from everything anybody has answered, I don't think it implies anything other than just another Bradley date. At least no one will take a stand and say what it implies, if anything. All anyone wants to say is that it could be a high; it could be a low; it could be a pause. That's just like any other Bradley....or in reality, it's just like every single day, week and month of the year, Bradley or no Bradley. :lol:

You might gather that I am a major skeptic on Bradley - in fact a few years ago I did a spoof here with my own "Studley Date" index and I feel that I showed that "Studley Dates" determined by pure chance (I used dice to pick dates) had at least as much correlation with actual market turning points as "Bradley Dates". My contention then and now is that Bradley is pure superstition, to put it kindly, hoax to put it crudely.

But that's just me. I could be wrong. I'm still waiting and watching for someone to call out his REAL TIME LIVE trades using Bradley, and show me that I'm wrong - that they make money - in real time, not curve fitting to history. I'd love to be proven wrong so that I could add a new reliable tool to my arsenal. Show me. ;)

Very best and thanks again for the post, Don
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#29 SemiBizz

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Posted 23 March 2010 - 08:34 AM

What could go wrong?

Don't watch this until you are sitting down and have some time...

13 10 min video segments at youtube.

Freaky...

:huh:
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#30 mss

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Posted 23 March 2010 - 08:54 AM

What could go wrong?

Don't watch this until you are sitting down and have some time...

13 10 min video segments at youtube.

Freaky...

:huh:

Thanks for the links.
mss
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