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Separating Facts From Fiction


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#1 TechMan

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Posted 07 April 2010 - 06:16 PM

First of all, congratulations to the bulls camp for edging out the victory by 0.78% in our 5-day race. Good job!!! I’m representing the bears here bowing and chanting…. We’re not worthy, we’re not worthy… Now that the victory party's over, I'll take care of the cleanup later. Let's see here... As I had commented before from the COT and the surge of the NDX short interests, it's evident that the big boys are shorting. So, here's my observation. By all emans, those long term investors who have the guts and the conviction to go long since last March are not within the scope of this comment. I have a lot of respect for them. I know what it’s like feeling as though you’re the only one on the planet that believed in doing the right thing – like Gary Cooper in “High Noon”. I mentioned last night that you’d know you’re on the right track shorting this market when bears suddenly turned bullish, and bulls started thinking about selling. Bears suddenly turned bullish because more than likely these bears have been bearish since early February bottom, or even earlier, and they just couldn’t take it anymore. These bears’ defection wouldn’t make much of a difference because they’re probably running low on resources. As for bulls that may have begun to ponder whether they should sell it already, they’re likely late bulls. The little bump on the PVO (Percentage Volume Oscillator) in the blue box below indicates moderate rising volume and is likely the entry point (approx. March 8 to March 30), where they began migrating to the bull camp. Over this 3-week period, the market had gained about 3%. With another 0.8% gain over the past 5 days, the market had gained about 3.8% over this span of 4 weeks. And, even though they had missed the 7.74% bulk of the rally from early February, this is these late bulls’ claim to fame; i.e., I’ve been bullish and profiting for 4 weeks now. And, when you’re late, the last thing you want is to be left without a chair when the music stops. NOTE: Chart does not include today’s volume. It wasn’t available when I extracted it. spx004.gif

#2 atlasshrugged

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Posted 07 April 2010 - 07:11 PM

its better to be LATE THAN EARLY i would much rather be a bull with a stop loss in place and up 3.8 percent over the past month than a bear with a loss of 3.8 percent in place which unequivically speaks for the majority on this board if they have been true their word and have been shorting

#3 dTraderB

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Posted 07 April 2010 - 07:30 PM

Many shorts have made more than 3.8% ..... markets can be traded long or short, in different time-frames.

#4 atlasshrugged

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Posted 07 April 2010 - 07:36 PM

Many shorts have made more than 3.8% ..... markets can be traded long or short, in different time-frames.



not in the last month...your full of BS

no bear on this board can claim they have made the 120 nq points that i have made being long since feb 23

Edited by atlasshrugged, 07 April 2010 - 07:38 PM.


#5 IndexTrader

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Posted 07 April 2010 - 08:01 PM

Many shorts have made more than 3.8% ..... markets can be traded long or short, in different time-frames.


3.8% has very little meaning if you're trading a leveraged product like futures for instance. 3.8% in the SPX for instance is about 50 points in the ES futures. Based on initial margin, 50 points is nearly 50%. Based on initial margin, getting backwards in a 50 point move gets you a margin call, and probably a second margin call if you met the first margin call. If you were trading from the short side it was definitely the tough way to go in the last several weeks.

IT

#6 zoropb

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Posted 07 April 2010 - 08:18 PM

markets can be traded long or short, in different time-frames.

:D .......Now that is a post that makes sense!

big difference when we add time frame to our post.

if you bought in 1994 your in a bull market
......................in the past 12 years over 1250 SPX your in a bear market
......................since Feb your in a bull
......................today around 1.20 your in a bear
......................today at 3 your in a bull

Your making money in all of these as long as your on the correct side when you entered it.
I run a traders Blog with high probability targeting on ES , YM, and will put up 3 others if asked. I mainly trade es and YM. http://ztradingintro.blogspot.com/ YM targeting is closed to any new members for good. Thanks for your interest. Good trades to you.

#7 porsche911sg

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Posted 07 April 2010 - 08:19 PM

Many shorts have made more than 3.8% ..... markets can be traded long or short, in different time-frames.



not in the last month...your full of BS

no bear on this board can claim they have made the 120 nq points that i have made being long since feb 23

I made the 127 points short from 1887 in January to 1760. All posted in TT in Real time. One trade position only.

Pretty sure it the shorts could have made at his posted price. He did post in real time I believe yesterday bagged him ten points.
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!

#8 TechMan

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Posted 07 April 2010 - 08:24 PM

Many shorts have made more than 3.8% ..... markets can be traded long or short, in different time-frames.



not in the last month...your full of BS

no bear on this board can claim they have made the 120 nq points that i have made being long since feb 23


Take it easy there, big guy. dTraderB was correct about different time frame. That's one of the tools we've often used to advance our arguments.

Would you mind showing me how you had accumulated this 120 points? Links will be greatly appreciate. I went on record to go long on February 8, and I went on record to sell my long positions on March 15, during which time the NDX had gained 185 points.

Thanx.

#9 milbank

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Posted 07 April 2010 - 08:28 PM

markets can be traded long or short, in different time-frames.

:D .......Now that is a post that makes sense!

big difference when we add time frame to our post.

if you bought in 1994 your in a bull market
......................in the past 12 years over 1250 SPX your in a bear market
......................since Feb your in a bull
......................today around 1.20 your in a bear
......................today at 3 your in a bull

Your making money in all of these as long as your on the correct side when you entered it.


Shhh! Zoropb and dTraderB. You're giving away the trader's secret. ;)

"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
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"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free."
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#10 atlasshrugged

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Posted 07 April 2010 - 08:30 PM

Many shorts have made more than 3.8% ..... markets can be traded long or short, in different time-frames.



not in the last month...your full of BS

no bear on this board can claim they have made the 120 nq points that i have made being long since feb 23

I made the 127 points short from 1887 in January to 1760. All posted in TT in Real time. One trade position only.

Pretty sure it the shorts could have made at his posted price. He did post in real time I believe yesterday bagged him ten points.



porsche....read the post before you pontificate your astude trading prowess....we are talking about the last MONTH!!!!!

I made money in the january ..february decline by trading WITH the TREND and shorting!!!

the trend changed in feb. back to a bullish trend and I made 120 points from FEB 23 till NOW trading WITH the trend..... no fRIGGIN bear HAS MADE THAT MANY POINTS TRADING FROM THE SHORT SIDE AGAINST THE TREND SINCE feb 23....THE ONLY POSSIBLE PERSON MIGHT BE ZORO P...BUT HE GOES BOTH WAYS( NO OFFENSE) AND IT WOULD MEAN HE BASICALLY BATTING 1000%%%

JUST READ THE POSTS BEFORE YOU DILUTE THE ARGUMENTS JEEZ