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Separating Facts From Fiction


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#51 zoropb

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Posted 08 April 2010 - 09:07 AM

"Precisely my point. Anything overnight, it's impossible to be a consistent winner against the trend. Either the gaps or trend will get you. Repeated assaults by the trend, will make you psychologically weak to take the signal when the real trend change happens. Been there, done it and endured the battle scars. Day trading is a different ballgame altogether. "

Too true, been there as well, long time ago, got the T shirt.

Atlas-As I pointed out, I need only take 4 Es points a day to top the return of "sitting bulls"-if you think I can't do that-it's your perogative.


A long time ago I did a little study. I figured out what the typical trend bought at somewhere near the low, and sold somewhere near the high made for you, on average. What I came up with was something like 2.5 points per day. So it becomes obvious that even in this relatively non-volatile climate that if you can catch the various intraday swings you can exceed that by quite a margin. And that of course is what causes so many to attempt day trading. Averaging 4 handles a day is no easy feat. I'll take you at your word that you do this, but I would also say that for most people it's the impossible dream.

IT

Interesting IT never took the time to work that number out but I did think it was somewhere around half to 25% to what a good Day Trader can produce. Ditto on the rest most are toast trying it and the tuition if you do make it for the first year or two is like paying for the 4 yrs of ...The U of trading. :lol:

Spooky :)

I run a traders Blog with high probability targeting on ES , closed to any new members.


#52 thespookyone

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Posted 08 April 2010 - 09:56 AM

Z-When I was young I could have gotten a masters at Harvard-considering the money spent, ouch and LOL. I truly think the money losing lessons are the most memorable, and best. Love your daytrading ability! IT-Thanks for your considerate response, and sure it's true-the majority of daytraders get smoked-much less take 4 points.. I'm teaching every day to get my students up to a consistent 4 points, which is my target for them. For myself, I try and average 6-and mostly do. I'm happy anywhere over 4. Did that or better for years at a pay site in front of 7-8 hundred live traders. I got much better during my time there, as I didn't feel like failing in front of a croud, and upped the anty on the amount of work I'm willing to do-which has stuck with me-I see a lot of 12 hour days between trading and charting. When I daytraded commodities in the 80's, only 1 pecent of traders were making money daytrading commodities :o

Edited by thespookyone, 08 April 2010 - 09:58 AM.


#53 milbank

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Posted 08 April 2010 - 10:06 AM

. . . What I came up with was something like 2.5 points per day. So it becomes obvious that even in this relatively non-volatile climate that if you can catch the various intraday swings you can exceed that by quite a margin.
IT


Bingo. This board either doesn't have a lot of day traders or, like me, they are too busy concentrating on trading to talk about it. It requires when in process, close to, if not total, concentration.

On a personal note, I find this "shirts or skins" bear/bull fighting and the personal insults made by some to others here, more than silly. I find it all very off-putting, amateurish and most importantly, useless to me.


In case I was misunderstood, only the first paragraph of my post was a response to you, IndexTrader. The second paragraph starting with "On a personal note," was not directed at you or your post I was originally responding to. It was a general statement directed at everyone I tacked on to the post.

Edited by milbank, 08 April 2010 - 10:14 AM.

"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
--George Bernard Shaw


"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free."
--Johann Wolfgang von Goethe


#54 IndexTrader

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Posted 08 April 2010 - 10:14 AM

Z-When I was young I could have gotten a masters at Harvard-considering the money spent, ouch and LOL. I truly think the money losing lessons are the most memorable, and best. Love your daytrading ability!

IT-Thanks for your considerate response, and sure it's true-the majority of daytraders get smoked-much less take 4 points.. I'm teaching every day to get my students up to a consistent 4 points, which is my target for them. For myself, I try and average 6-and mostly do. I'm happy anywhere over 4. Did that or better for years at a pay site in front of 7-8 hundred live traders. I got much better during my time there, as I didn't feel like failing in front of a croud, and upped the anty on the amount of work I'm willing to do-which has stuck with me-I see a lot of 12 hour days between trading and charting. When I daytraded commodities in the 80's, only 1 pecent of traders were making money daytrading commodities :o


Spook: That's kinda where I was coming from in my post. You read alot of info around about the percentage of traders that fail. I read numbers like 90%, or perhaps higher. So making anything, let alone 4+ points is obviously a challenge to most people, regardless of how much intraday movement takes place. By the way, I don't have any first hand knowledge of the failure rate of traders...but I have a tendency to believe the numbers.

Lately I've been re-reading one of the Jesse Livermore books. Interesting that he started basically as a short term trader then migrated to something considerably longer term. Of course, he didn't have stock index futures and instant executions with low commissions. I've been wondering what his thoughts might have been regarding trading style in light of these developments. I do recall a commentary in one of his books that his early methods would have worked well had he been a floor trader, but I believe he then commented that he could not have made the big money.

I think most traders would do better to trade in connection with the trend. My personal opinion. These contratrend trades can be pretty tough at times. And perhaps it reflects my personal history, where I've traded both on and off the floor for years now...and over my career I don't think I've averaged 4+ points per day. It's not a number I keep. I just look at the dollars. And too, I generally hold multiple contracts that I jump in and out of some, making it difficult to figure. Either way, the biggest money I've made has always been in the direction of the underlying trend.

Good trading.

#55 milbank

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Posted 08 April 2010 - 10:29 AM

I once read something interesting in a book by Stephen Ambrose called The Wild Blue: The Men and Boys who Flew the B-24s over Germany (my Dad was a B-24 Bombadier/Navigator in that war), where he mentioned that most of those who joined the Army Air Corps did so because they thought they had a better chance of surviving in the air than on the ground while those who joined the infantry thought they had a better chance on the ground than in the air. I, and I assume others like zoro, prefer VST trading because, while it takes concentration when in action, it seems less stressful. For me, IT trading seems much more stressful. I especially see it in the nature of some of the posts IT traders make here. I prefer ending most of my days flat (Unless I am specifically doing a set-up I feel has to begin the previous trading day to the day I'm playing for the sell or cover). I sleep better.

Bottom line? To each his own.

Edited by milbank, 08 April 2010 - 10:34 AM.

"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
--George Bernard Shaw


"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free."
--Johann Wolfgang von Goethe