35 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Terry's T expired around 1140ish levels i beleive and then his envelope had serious resistance around around 1148 levels with a ARMS sell signal. Then my system gave two sell signals in the 1160-80 area, which were only good for 5-10 points from the signal trigger price. There were these insane P/C ratios which should have produced some reaction. There were cluster of resistances in the 1160-80 area. Then we had the Greece news, which produced only a yawn. There was trendline break on the hourly and even daily charts, not to mention the NYMO trendline break that IYB posted. Nothing has been able to produce anything more than a 1 day reaction. Now Terry says he has a second ARMS sell warning. During his cash build up phase, the market has rallied up 50 points and still going up. If the cash build up phase produced 50+ points of rally, what would happen duing the cash spending phase ? A stampede ? I think the retailers have entered the market big time. I know this based on anecdotal evidence. A lot of my friends and relatives are entering the market or showing interst in stocks now. Never underestimate the power of the public. They can drive things crazy, before a crash. Don't ever think that you are smarter than price P.S - I think SPX 1225 will be tagged before a serious selloff begins.

Edited by NAV, 09 April 2010 - 10:08 AM.

[TMN]

i am suspecting they will be happily buying this mkt all the way down if it doesn't drop too fast

[SemiBizz]

Guess it depends on which liquid we lookin' at...

[snorkels4]

Liquidity matters. It's the only thing that matters. The most important liquidity input in US markets is the Fed. The Fed adjusts liquidity according to its reading of the fundamentals. That's why bearish economic data are bullish for the market and bullish data are bearish for stocks. But you don't have to analyze it or think about it. The old timers told you a long time ago, "Don't fight the Fed." It can't get much simpler than that. The Fed gave unprecedented buy signals in November of 2008, and especially in March 2009.

the lee oracle : http://www.capitalst...mp;#entry800867

[arbman]

NAV, I agree, this now feels completely like a mark up and I expect it to last a few more months, we will see some serious pull backs, but the idea is NOT to shake people off. In fact get them sucked in more and more and leverage up... Edit: basically train them unconditionally to "buy the dips".

Edited by arbman, 09 April 2010 - 10:31 AM.

[NAV]

Liquidity matters. It's the only thing that matters. The most important liquidity input in US markets is the Fed. The Fed adjusts liquidity according to its reading of the fundamentals. That's why bearish economic data are bullish for the market and bullish data are bearish for stocks. But you don't have to analyze it or think about it. The old timers told you a long time ago, "Don't fight the Fed." It can't get much simpler than that. The Fed gave unprecedented buy signals in November of 2008, and especially in March 2009.

the lee oracle : http://www.capitalst...mp;#entry800867

snorkel,

Yeah, the old timers said that in 2007 too - "Don't Fight the Fed". Some even said it all the way down to 2009 bottom and some dissapeared. If there is one lesson i have learn't, that will stay with me for the rest of my trading life, it is "Don't fight the trend. Don't fight the price". Fed, Gurus, Economy, Fundamentals, New timers, Old timers, Fed, PPT, et al don't matter one bit.

[tommyt]

one common thread I've seen after big runs. Near an end phase, the bulls AND bears start looking up at numbers they "ideally" like to see hit...its starting to happen now.

[arbman]

snorkel,

Yeah, the old timers said that in 2007 too - "Don't Fight the Fed". Some even said it all the way down to 2009 bottom and some dissapeared. If there is one lesson i have learn't, that will stay with me for the rest of my trading life, it is "Don't fight the trend. Don't fight the price". Fed, Gurus, Economy, Fundamentals, New timers, Old timers, Fed, PPT, et al don't matter one bit.

Don't fight the FED?!?! What are you talking about? They just printed over $6T, sold your children's future, possibly your grandchildren's too and they will be cashing out your taxes like kings. The few bankers who lost maybe 25% of their net assets are now getting back over 50% of your tax payments for the next 2-3 decades. WHAT A DEAL!

We are all slaves at the end of the day, no matter how smart you are in beating the markets, you will still pay them.

Edit: Tommyt, I am not sure about 1230 at this juncture, but 1220s seem achievable to me, it is only 30 points away, they can rally the energy up more as the heaviest weighting component of SPX while RUT continues to participate due to its financials and materials heavy composition and people will continue to be sucked in to "the liquidity mania" of Fed... They can distribute the tech and others all they want in the mean time, in fact you have to see the financials severely lag to be able to talk about a serious sell off pending...

Edited by arbman, 09 April 2010 - 10:41 AM.

[zoropb]

Guess it depends on which liquid we lookin' at...

I wanted it to rally again to 89 to get other half dang it.

If it does not 70 here we come. I wonder what that will do to equities in a little while.

[zoropb]

one common thread I've seen after big runs. Near an end phase, the bulls AND bears start looking up at numbers they "ideally" like to see hit...its starting to happen now.

yep