35 replies to this topic

[NAV]

snorkel, One more thing. Feel free to disagree with me or call me a fool. Fed controls squat !. They are a slave to bond markets. They will follow the bond markets. It's the bond market that makes Fed look like genuises or fools. It's based on market cycles. Where were all the supporters of "Don't fight the fed" argument hiding when the market was falling off the cliff and the Fed was watching helplessly ? The markets were severly oversold and we were at the end of a down cycle with beaten down yields on the long bonds which enables the Fed to pump that massive liquidity. If the Fed tries the same stunt at the peak of a upmarket cycle, the bonds will crash - Period !. The Greeks look like clowns today. Tommorow, the same fate will hit America, if the drunken sailors don't rollback their spending plans and nonsense stimulus measures and buying of crappy assets. Otherwise, the oversupply in bonds will show the Fed as to who's the boss. The chinese are now entering an era of trade deficits for the first time this quarter. They ain't gonna buy U.S bonds with both their hands anymore. The drama is only beginning !

[SemiBizz]

Guess it depends on which liquid we lookin' at...

I wanted it to rally again to 89 to get other half dang it.

If it does not 70 here we come. I wonder what that will do to equities in a little while.

Excerpt from Today's Crude Forecast:

Slight bias to trade higher now except for the closing price of 85.39... under the previous volume low. If we can climb and maintaint 85.53 we can see the mid 86s we spoke about in yesterday's forecast... overall though we still see this moving lower based on present data, just below $84.

[arbman]

FED is controlled by the bond market, so true, but the largest players of the bond market do own FED too... So, basically Fed is rendered down to an institution that prints money to funnel the tax receipts to these players in the bond market, if they don't get what they want, they crash the bonds or equities or whatever and eventually pick up the chips much much cheaper. The cycle of inflation and deflation works when you are the house and the little guys can stand only so much of destruction, they will eventually sell everything in desperation...

[NAV]

one common thread I've seen after big runs. Near an end phase, the bulls AND bears start looking up at numbers they "ideally" like to see hit...its starting to happen now.

Tommyt,

Yes, that is the reason they always either undershoot or overshoot those numbers.

[NAV]

FED is controlled by the bond market, so true, but the largest players of the bond market do own FED too...

So, basically Fed is rendered down to an institution that prints money to funnel the tax receipts to these players in the bond market, if they don't get what they want, they crash the bonds or equities or whatever and eventually pick up the chips much much cheaper. The cycle of inflation and deflation works when you are the house and the little guys can stand only so much of destruction, they will eventually sell everything in desperation...

Arbman,

True. That's why the best way to beat these guys is to join em'

[arbman]

btw, Fed is part of this cartel AND NOT THE PEOPLE since Fed could not simply tell the bankers to go to hell, Fed gave in... Bernanke is a hero for saving us from the deflation, the man of the year... He in fact missed the only opportunity to end the tyranny of the banking over the people. US has the most advanced banking, right, right... It is a thievery corporation.

The Federal income taxes will be almost entirely spent on the military and interest payments (not principal) from here, they tell people they spend the money on the schools etc etc which are almost entirely paid by the local and state taxes. Eventually, the govt will start selling its assets.

[SemiBizz]

one common thread I've seen after big runs. Near an end phase, the bulls AND bears start looking up at numbers they "ideally" like to see hit...its starting to happen now.

Hmmm, they been hittin my "ideal" numbers with regularity and still keep going higher...

Latest was 2442... 1.618 Resistance... We still haven't closed over it...

But I have already published the next expected target should we break this one.

Edited by SemiBizz, 09 April 2010 - 11:17 AM.

[NAV]

Eventually, the govt will start selling its assets.

What assets ? They got only liabilities

[IYB]

Terry's T expired around 1140ish levels i beleive and then his envelope had serious resistance around around 1148 levels with a ARMS sell signal. Then my system gave two sell signals in the 1160-80 area, which were only good for 5-10 points from the signal trigger price. There were these insane P/C ratios which should have produced some reaction. There were cluster of resistances in the 1160-80 area. Then we had the Greece news, which produced only a yawn. There was trendline break on the hourly and even daily charts, not to mention the NYMO trendline break that IYB posted. Nothing has been able to produce anything more than a 1 day reaction. Now Terry says he has a second ARMS sell warning. During his cash build up phase, the market has rallied up 50 points and still going up. If the cash build up phase produced 50+ points of rally, what would happen duing the cash spending phase ? A stampede ? I think the retailers have entered the market big time. I know this based on anecdotal evidence. A lot of my friends and relatives are entering the market or showing interst in stocks now. Never underestimate the power of the public. They can drive things crazy, before a crash. Don't ever think that you are smarter than price

P.S - I think SPX 1225 will be tagged before a serious selloff begins.

Precisely NAV. Excellent observations. That's why, imho, it's soooo important that we have objective tools to guide our trading. I have a great appreciation for how you determine which side to trade, and just like with the Seven Sentinels, the beauty is that no matter what you, I, or anyone else "expects" the market to do, as long as our objective determinates say "up" we are forced to close our eyes, plug our noses, and just buy. I made this point in a string below. There is {or certainly should be} a big difference between what we "think" and what we "do" based on objective tools. Regards, D

[goldswinger]

Guess it depends on which liquid we lookin' at...

Viscuosity index is high on this one.....not sure if I got the word right, think molasses.....

GS.