35 replies to this topic

[vitaminm]

Most of the viewers focus on SPX, barely beat passive returns of junks and miss joy of junks!

http://finance.yahoo...e=HYG JNK PRHYX

yea the fed follows and all that but when they started buying bonds themselves the game changed, i think. ???????

What did the Fed acheive by doing that ?.

The loudest bells I ever heard rung in my 44 years in the game was at the Fed 2008 meeting and the bond buying binge they said they were about to embark in the very near future and then at their March 2009 meeting when they said they had begun the buying. This has already been discussed here a few times in the past. So what did they achieve? December 2008 was the launch of the greatest junk bond rally in recorded history which continues unabated to this very day and March 2009 was the launch of one of the greatest 13 month stock market rallies in recorded history which also continues unabated to this very day.

[Gary Smith]

Most of the viewers focus on SPX, barely beat passive returns of junks and miss joy of junks!

http://finance.yahoo...e=HYG JNK PRHYX

yea the fed follows and all that but when they started buying bonds themselves the game changed, i think. ???????

What did the Fed acheive by doing that ?.

The loudest bells I ever heard rung in my 44 years in the game was at the Fed 2008 meeting and the bond buying binge they said they were about to embark in the very near future and then at their March 2009 meeting when they said they had begun the buying. This has already been discussed here a few times in the past. So what did they achieve? December 2008 was the launch of the greatest junk bond rally in recorded history which continues unabated to this very day and March 2009 was the launch of one of the greatest 13 month stock market rallies in recorded history which also continues unabated to this very day.

Thanks vitaminm, I am not a fan of the exchange traded funds HYG and JNK and don't consider them very good examples of what has transpired in junk since December of 2008. For one thing they have underperformed many of the better managed open end junk bond funds ala AHYFX, FAGIX, BJBHX, and NTHEX to name just a very few. And since you mention "passive" investments none of the charts include dividends. If you want to see a chart of beauty which is a "total return" chart of junk take a gander at the proxy for junk bonds the Merrill Lynch index I have referenced here in the past.

[vitaminm]

I prefer hyg,jnk for short term trade based on TA.
Only drawback of junk funds are early Redemption fee!
How do you manage?
Do these funds (AHYFX, FAGIX, BJBHX, NTHEX) have redemption fees?
I like prhyx because it assesses fee on sales of shares held less than 3 months.

Most of the viewers focus on SPX, barely beat passive returns of junks and miss joy of junks!

http://finance.yahoo...e=HYG JNK PRHYX

yea the fed follows and all that but when they started buying bonds themselves the game changed, i think. ???????

What did the Fed acheive by doing that ?.

The loudest bells I ever heard rung in my 44 years in the game was at the Fed 2008 meeting and the bond buying binge they said they were about to embark in the very near future and then at their March 2009 meeting when they said they had begun the buying. This has already been discussed here a few times in the past. So what did they achieve? December 2008 was the launch of the greatest junk bond rally in recorded history which continues unabated to this very day and March 2009 was the launch of one of the greatest 13 month stock market rallies in recorded history which also continues unabated to this very day.

Thanks vitaminm, I am not a fan of the exchange traded funds HYG and JNK and don't consider them very good examples of what has transpired in junk since December of 2008. For one thing they have underperformed many of the better managed open end junk bond funds ala AHYFX, FAGIX, BJBHX, and NTHEX to name just a very few. And since you mention "passive" investments none of the charts include dividends. If you want to see a chart of beauty which is a "total return" chart of junk take a gander at the proxy for junk bonds the Merrill Lynch index I have referenced here in the past.

[Gary Smith]

I prefer hyg,jnk for short term trade based on TA.
Only drawback of junk funds are early Redemption fee!
How do you manage?
Do these funds (AHYFX, FAGIX, BJBHX, NTHEX) have redemption fees?
I like prhyx because it assesses fee on sales of shares held less than 3 months.

Most of the viewers focus on SPX, barely beat passive returns of junks and miss joy of junks!

http://finance.yahoo...e=HYG JNK PRHYX

yea the fed follows and all that but when they started buying bonds themselves the game changed, i think. ???????

What did the Fed acheive by doing that ?.

The loudest bells I ever heard rung in my 44 years in the game was at the Fed 2008 meeting and the bond buying binge they said they were about to embark in the very near future and then at their March 2009 meeting when they said they had begun the buying. This has already been discussed here a few times in the past. So what did they achieve? December 2008 was the launch of the greatest junk bond rally in recorded history which continues unabated to this very day and March 2009 was the launch of one of the greatest 13 month stock market rallies in recorded history which also continues unabated to this very day.

Thanks vitaminm, I am not a fan of the exchange traded funds HYG and JNK and don't consider them very good examples of what has transpired in junk since December of 2008. For one thing they have underperformed many of the better managed open end junk bond funds ala AHYFX, FAGIX, BJBHX, and NTHEX to name just a very few. And since you mention "passive" investments none of the charts include dividends. If you want to see a chart of beauty which is a "total return" chart of junk take a gander at the proxy for junk bonds the Merrill Lynch index I have referenced here in the past.

vitaminm, there are a slew of open junk bond funds that have no redemption fees whatsoever. And it's just like the 90s with most of them as they don't seem to mind large moves in and out on an as needed basis, albeit there have been very few as needed times since the record setting rally began. I am not sure technical analysis would have gotten anyone anywhere during this record setting rally as it has been pretty much straight up. What's that Livermore said about sitting tight?? Reactions seem to come when the open end have 14 day RSIs in the high 80s to low 90s for an extended period of time. To name just a few of the better performing ones without redemption fees - SSHYX, BJBHX, AHYFX, NTHEX, and MWHYX. The only one that eventually banned me has been BJBHX.

The intraday movements in the junk ETFs are often nonsensical based of what is occurring in junkland. If I had a smaller account I would have much preferred to have traded the closed end junk funds, regardless of their hefty premiums. Take a gander at this chart of one of the better known closed end. The returns are even better than the chart indicates as the double digit annual dividends aren't included.


http://bigcharts.mar...r...p;x=19&y=16

[vitaminm]

fagix

http://charts.barcha...F...KIC&org=stk

NTHEX

http://charts.barcha...n...KIC&org=stk

One may watch upper trend line! and volatility!

Thanks.

I prefer hyg,jnk for short term trade based on TA.
Only drawback of junk funds are early Redemption fee!
How do you manage?
Do these funds (AHYFX, FAGIX, BJBHX, NTHEX) have redemption fees?
I like prhyx because it assesses fee on sales of shares held less than 3 months.

Most of the viewers focus on SPX, barely beat passive returns of junks and miss joy of junks!

http://finance.yahoo...e=HYG JNK PRHYX

yea the fed follows and all that but when they started buying bonds themselves the game changed, i think. ???????

What did the Fed acheive by doing that ?.

The loudest bells I ever heard rung in my 44 years in the game was at the Fed 2008 meeting and the bond buying binge they said they were about to embark in the very near future and then at their March 2009 meeting when they said they had begun the buying. This has already been discussed here a few times in the past. So what did they achieve? December 2008 was the launch of the greatest junk bond rally in recorded history which continues unabated to this very day and March 2009 was the launch of one of the greatest 13 month stock market rallies in recorded history which also continues unabated to this very day.

Thanks vitaminm, I am not a fan of the exchange traded funds HYG and JNK and don't consider them very good examples of what has transpired in junk since December of 2008. For one thing they have underperformed many of the better managed open end junk bond funds ala AHYFX, FAGIX, BJBHX, and NTHEX to name just a very few. And since you mention "passive" investments none of the charts include dividends. If you want to see a chart of beauty which is a "total return" chart of junk take a gander at the proxy for junk bonds the Merrill Lynch index I have referenced here in the past.

vitaminm, there are a slew of open junk bond funds that have no redemption fees whatsoever. And it's just like the 90s with most of them as they don't seem to mind large moves in and out on an as needed basis, albeit there have been very few as needed times since the record setting rally began. I am not sure technical analysis would have gotten anyone anywhere during this record setting rally as it has been pretty much straight up. What's that Livermore said about sitting tight?? Reactions seem to come when the open end have 14 day RSIs in the high 80s to low 90s for an extended period of time. To name just a few of the better performing ones without redemption fees - SSHYX, BJBHX, AHYFX, NTHEX, and MWHYX. The only one that eventually banned me has been BJBHX.

The intraday movements in the junk ETFs are often nonsensical based of what is occurring in junkland. If I had a smaller account I would have much preferred to have traded the closed end junk funds, regardless of their hefty premiums. Take a gander at this chart of one of the better known closed end. The returns are even better than the chart indicates as the double digit annual dividends aren't included.


http://bigcharts.mar...r...p;x=19&y=16

[NAV]

yea the fed follows and all that but when they started buying bonds themselves the game changed, i think. ???????

What did the Fed acheive by doing that ?.

The loudest bells I ever heard rung in my 44 years in the game was at the Fed 2008 meeting and the bond buying binge they said they were about to embark in the very near future and then at their March 2009 meeting when they said they had begun the buying. This has already been discussed here a few times in the past. So what did they achieve? December 2008 was the launch of the greatest junk bond rally in recorded history which continues unabated to this very day and March 2009 was the launch of one of the greatest 13 month stock market rallies in recorded history which also continues unabated to this very day.

Gary,

Had the Fed annouced in 2008, that they would create the greatest stock market and junk bond market rally in the history, i would have said that they have suceeded in their mission. The Fed's objective in buying the bonds was to peg the yields on the long bonds at depressed levels to revive the real estate market and also to encourage the banks to get less risk averse by lending more rather than hoarding the bonds. Ironically, from March 2009, when they started the QE, the yields on 10 yr have gone up from 2.8% to around 3.88% today. So it's a myth that the Fed can really control the bond market, which it never has. That was the point of my discussion with snorkel. QE is just a euphemism for money printing. What enabled the Fed to pursue the QE was the beaten down yields in the bond market. So "Don't fight the liquidity" is a more appropriate phrase than "Don't fight the Fed". Cuz the Fed's ability to create liquidty is a function of the bond market's willingness to accept it. If the Fed could create liquidity independent of the bond market, we would be living in a fairlyland devoid of recessions and market declines.

On a side note, i am impressed and influenced by "Price is king" theory which you and Indextrader have been big proponents of. It is. No one is smarter than price.

Edited by NAV, 09 April 2010 - 10:13 PM.