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Crafting the rhythms


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#1 stanley

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Posted 13 April 2010 - 12:58 PM

A friend made a "complaint" to me ..... This post tries to clear some ambiguity in my older posts.

[ref 1]: Apr 29 2009, 03:23 PM
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By surmounting 881 [see note], the wave hierarchy changes. The rally wave since March 6th becomes a major wave. Therefore, a primary wave B (Up, counter-trend) has commenced. It is at the same level as the wave from Oct/07 to March/09 (Primary A, Down).

[Note]:
881.38 = [0.236|666.79:1576.09] and 877= [0.618|1007:667]. The points between 877 [middle spring target] and 881 is small but By surmounting 881, the wave hierarchy changes
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Index challenged the 1200.44, a low point marked on July 15, 2008. This is a In-Progress movement. When index exceeds 1256.98 (refer to the chart shown below) the wave status since March 09 may “separate” from the prior one (1756-->667) and become an individual segment (see note). When the wave is becoming a separate segment, it is capable of reaching 1300 level. The half power point 0.707 from 667 to 1576 is 1310, very close to the High 1313.15 marked on 08/11/08.

outlook04_s1.JPG

[note]: Feb 14 2010, 07:36 PM
http://indexcalls.co...o...st&p=556709
One of the issues in E-wave theory is the connectivity. E-wave theory is a set of an intuitive hypothesis (a proposed explanation for an observable phenomenon). Obviously, the more separation in time of two non-connected groups of waves, the lesser the associability in between. When two groups of waves connect together, still, the doubt is whether we need to treat these waves in the context of one segmentation. In short, the E-wave theory may be applicable only to a discrete segment in a given time interval. For example, the wave since late March may be can only be interpolated and extrapolated in its own “territory”. Not much adherence with the prior move.
I do believe E-wave theory is a guide to explore a segmental rhythms, It is an alternative interpretation for the following quote:
link
Mark Twain 1835-1910
“By law of periodical repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again -- and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's and each obeying its own law.”

[ref 2]:Sep 7 2009, 01:46 PM
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Astro events can hardly ties with a quantitative number credibly. While those hard planet aspects may drag down the index, the wave structure since March’s low (09) looks bullish.
I speculate there is a possibility we will see the Up wave bring the index to somewhere around 1122 to 1229.
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In late September, I picked two retracement references out of [667:1575] for speculation:
1122 is the 50% retracement, befroe index took out 1132 decesively, there was a month long tough fight in the zone 1086-1132.
1229 is the 61.8% retracements, Zone 1195 to 1229 should be another battle field.
Larger frame pullback targets: There is no sign of weakening, Bull has gained enough high terrain so that a regular 0.382 pullback from 1229 only can reach 1014 [frame 667:1229], 0.5 @948.

[ref 3]: Nov 29 2009, 02:51 AM
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666.79-->956.23-->869.32-->1158.53 [1.0]
Posted Image
Posted Image
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A few technicians suggest 1269 to be the next high target.
666.79-->956.23-->869.32-->1158.53 [1.0]--->1227.06[1.236]-->1269.33[1.382].
However, 1221 is a major Fibonacci retracement point, expects good rejection on initial assault.
According to the Long PI projection, Index may plot a peak around 04/15, [center 04/15, +/- 4 * PI], One may anticipate this event, but not to make heavy bet on it;

[ref 4]: Jan 30 2010, 09:56 PM
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Index surmounts 1132 will invalidate the downward correction, pivot 1119. Supports 1062/1064, 1043/1036, 1001.
Market moved ahead of itself due to the economy has moved from dire state to a relative mix of signals stage. Unless fundamental conditions turn down again quickly, we may see index run into some sort of correction, not a full speed downward movement
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[Ref 5]: Dec 31 2009, 03:51 PM
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The turn date on 03/01 is sandwiched by 01/18/10 (Fibonacci Time Zone 0.618) and 04/15/10 (long PI date), the index action in this period provides a good perception for the rest of the 2010. By that time, we may feel the beginning of something. The prelude for the alignment of our times.
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Index reversed from 1044.5 then jumped over pivot 1119 on 03/05. That Jump-Over-Pivot action pretty much set the tone and confirmed the Bradley turn date direction. Now, index poked into zone 1195-1229. In a near term time frame, I guess we may see a pullback to test 1045-1003, pivot 1085, then head to challenge 1200 again. Right now, Index attempts to assault the lower side of the target zone 1195-1229. Put in this way: Without good earnings outlook, the “Gap-Up” technology can hardly send the index over 1229 in near term. The bet is counting on how much realization a speculator has gained in the fundamental front.

#2 stanley

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Posted 13 April 2010 - 10:23 PM

a few bad typos

Index reversed from 1044.5 then jumped over pivot 1119 on 03/05. That Jump-Over-Pivot action pretty much set the tone and confirmed the Bradley turn date direction. Now, index poked into zone 1195-1229. In a near term time frame, I guess we may see a pullback to test 1045-1003 ( 1145-1103 ), pivot 1085 ( 1185 ), then head to challenge 1200 again.

#3 joe

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Posted 27 April 2010 - 02:51 PM

what do u think the current forecast

#4 stanley

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Posted 29 April 2010 - 11:07 AM

what do u think the current forecast


Hello there, my friend
My outlook remains the same so there is not much needs to be revised. Index probably made a middle term peak however this event needs confirmation.

Here is my quick summary:
old commenst in italic font

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* Zone 1195 to 1229 should be another battle field.

* 1221 is a major Fibonacci retracement point, expects good rejection on initial assault.

* According to the Long PI projection, Index may plot a peak around 04/15, [center 04/15, +/- 4 * PI], One may anticipate this event, but not to make heavy bet on it

* I guess we may see a pullback to test 1145-1103, pivot 1185

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Index marked an intraday day high 1,219.80 on 04/26, A date that is 3.8* PI from the center date 04/15 (also the date for the Fibonacci Time Zone 0.786), Point wise, it is 1.2 point shy from 1221.
Even though the index dipped below the pivot 1185 shortly, the mixed news let index struggle in the lower part of the zone 1195-1229, an obvious resistance point is 1208.61. The first confirmation of the trend reversal is to see index move down to 1145-1103. Once it pokes into the zone 1145-1103, the second confirmation is to see a bounce not higher than 1183 [0.618, frame (1145+1103)/2, 1220].

#5 stanley

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Posted 06 May 2010 - 03:41 PM

Hi there, my friend

Today's action confirmed this chart's implification: Market enters "The alignment of our times", expects more violent action in this coming fall.

chart: Nov 29 http://traders-talk....-1259478412.jpg

for more details, please refer to the following older posts.

[longer term]

Feb 23 2010, 12:49 PM
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=508679
As stated on 02/06, I divide the speculation scope into two time zones. The first zone is from 01/18 to 04/26. The second zone is from 07/23 to 09/17. The month of May and June serves as a fulcrum that bridge the two time zones. I put the index movement in the first time zone as a correction category, the level to be observed are 1010-1001 and 951-965; the correction becomes a more serious decline if Index dives below 951, thus the scope of the second time zone.

In 2008-2010, there are Saturn-Uranus opposition in exact alignments:
(1) 11/04/08
(2) 02/05/09
(3) 09/15/09
(4) 04/26/10
(5) 07/26/10

I did a “flow” chart for the last two alignments.
Posted Image
Dec 31 2009, 03:51 PM
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=500063
the index action in this period [see above chart] provides a good perception for the rest of the 2010. By that time, we may feel the beginning of something. The prelude for the alignment of our times.

[near term]

Crafting the rhythms

Full text & Charts : http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=516726
Apr 13 2010, 09:58 AM
Apr 29 2010, 08:07 AM
Index marked an intraday day high 1,219.80 on 04/26, A date that is 3.8* PI from the center date 04/15 (also the date for the Fibonacci Time Zone 0.786), Point wise, it is 1.2 point shy from 1221.
Even though the index dipped below the pivot 1185 shortly, the mixed news let index struggle in the lower part of the zone 1195-1229, an obvious resistance point is 1208.61. The first confirmation of the trend reversal is to see index move down to 1145-1103. Once it pokes into the zone 1145-1103, the second confirmation is to see a bounce not higher than 1183 [0.618, frame (1145+1103)/2, 1220].

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#6 stanley

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Posted 18 May 2010 - 12:32 AM

[old comments in italic fonts]

Middle term speculations:

Dec 31 2009, 12:51 PM link
The key zone to watch is 1014-1001 and 948-962

Apr 13 2010, 09:58 AM link
Larger frame pullback targets: There is no sign of weakening, Bull has gained enough high terrain so that a regular 0.382 pullback from 1229 only can reach 1014 [frame 667:1229], 0.5 @948.


Fibonacci Time Zone (ratio 1.00) due 07/30/10-08/10/10.

Oct 24 2009, 02:45 PM Post #19 link
Question: “What is out there that will cause the biggest signatures since the 1930s and 1870s?”

Part (II) The Grand Cross and An Alignment for Our Times
----- A T-Cross on July 30
----- The Grand Cross on August 6
----- The Saturn-Uranus opposition – 5 alignments in 2008-2010.
----- No.5 07/26/10 chart May 6 2010


Near term speculations:

Apr 29 2010, 08:07 AM Post #4 link
Index marked an intraday day high 1,219.80 on 04/26, A date that is 3.8* PI from the center date 04/15 (also the date for the Fibonacci Time Zone 0.786), Point wise, it is 1.2 point shy from 1221.
an obvious resistance point is 1208.61. The first confirmation of the trend reversal is to see index move down to 1145-1103. Once it pokes into the zone 1145-1103, the second confirmation is to see a bounce not higher than 1183 [0.618, frame (1145+1103)/2, 1220].


From the chart [scope: near term] shown below, 04/29 intraday high 1209.38 is slightly higher than the projected resistance 1208.61, then , the index cut through 1103, cratered on 1065, and reversed. [First confirmation transpired], on 05/13, index hit 1173.57 then moved down again [Second confirmation transpired]. The 0.707 retracement from frame [1065:1219.80] is 1174.67. The original speculation point was 1183 ([0.618, frame (1145+1103)/2,1220]), replaces 1103 with 1065, the resistance is 1176.07 ([0.618: 1105, 1220]).

In short term, 1107 and 1176 are two key pivots to watch. Assume the “correction” off 1220 is in the form of a (1220-1065), b (1065-1174), then, c from 1174, pass through pivot 1107, it may hit 1019 [1.00, nearby wave points 1014,1019], 1052 [0.796, nearby major FIB point is 1053], 1078 [0.618], 1065 [0.707 !!!], also refer to chart Nov 29 2009. Point 1019 is equivalent to a 0.382 retracement (@1014) from larger frame [1229, 667].

spx0514.JPG

Speculations transpired

Fibonacci Time Zone ratio 0.618 due 01/18/10
1158 is an unrealized wave target (1158-1175)

actual: Jan 19, 2010 1,150.45

April 15 has another significance, thus, it is the Fibonacci Time Zone 0.786 date
According to the Long PI projection, Index may plot a peak around 04/15, [center 04/15, +/- 4 * PI]
1221 is a major Fibonacci retracement point, expects good rejection on initial assault

actual: Apr 26, 2010 1,219.80

Details:

Dec 31 2009, 12:51 PM Post #1
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=500063

SPX 1158 is an unrealized wave target (1158-1175). The resistance is 1132, 1144.

Nov 28 2009, 11:51 PM Post #1
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=495227

FIB/Wave chart http://traders-talk....-1259478412.jpg

Fibonacci Time Zone ratio 0.618 due 01/18/10
From 10/11/07 (1576.09) to 03/06/09 (666.79), there were 352 trading days.
Use ratio 0.618, 352 * 0.618 = 218 trading days, it is due on January 18, 2010. This particular Time Zone ratio could give a good hint where is the broad direction heads to.

There were 1259 trading days (400 * PI) from 4 year cycle low date (10/10/2002) to the Apex of Great Reflation date (10/11/2007).
1259 * 1.5 = 600 * PI
1259 * 0.5 = 200 * PI = 629/630
629 trading days (200 * PI) from the Apex of Great Reflation date (10/11/07) maps to April 15, 2010

Feb 18 2010, 01:14 PM Post #7
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=507962
Just take a small calculation, you will find out April 15 has another significance, thus, it is the Fibonacci Time Zone 0.786 date

Apr 13 2010, 09:58 AM Post #1
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=516726

Larger frame pullback targets: There is no sign of weakening, Bull has gained enough high terrain so that a regular 0.382 pullback from 1229 only can reach 1014 [frame 667:1229], 0.5 @948.

A few technicians suggest 1269 to be the next high target.
666.79-->956.23-->869.32-->1158.53 [1.0]--->1227.06[1.236]-->1269.33[1.382].
However, 1221 is a major Fibonacci retracement point, expects good rejection on initial assault.
According to the Long PI projection, Index may plot a peak around 04/15, [center 04/15, +/- 4 * PI]

#7 stanley

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Posted 22 May 2010 - 10:36 PM

Crafting the rhythms series 05/21-22

Near term:

S&P500 index gapped down on 05/20, opened at pivot 1107.34. The next day, 05/21, index plotted an intraday low 1055.90 that is very close to the second target 1052. [ 1019 (1.0), 1052 (0.786), ... refer to prior post]

Even though the speculated middle term low is still ahead, on a closing basis, index closes above 1086 is the sign that this sub wave (of down side movement) is probably complete. 1086 comes from the frame [0.382 | 869: 1220]. For a safer confirmation, wait index closing above 1117 [gap 1113.71-1107.34]. After the safer confirmation, the speculation effort may focus on the middle term trajectory.

Since OE actions diffuses some mist, Let’s see market will do back filling first or fill the gap first.

Beyond near term:

After a few weeks respite period. market enters another chaos. Time window is around [07/30-08/10]–09/27. The possible upper rails: 1138-1157 or 1176-1186, posible lower rails: 1014 or 948.

MMA Comments for the Week Beginning May 24, 2010
Written by Raymond Merriman
link
an excerpt

“Short-Term Geocosmics
The fifth and deepest layer is coming up late July through early August. And then we will know what the ground looks like. But hopefully we can remember the way back out – or find a new way out.

Longer-Term Thoughts
Well, let’s end on a positive note. The Jupiter-Uranus conjunction in Aries combination begins manifesting in the skies this week, and it will last through early September. These are principles which can bring about enlightened thought and inventive solutions to the problems that stymie world leaders today, as well as each of us in our individual life. Think big and think outside of the box. The solutions and the new thoughts needed today are not in the box. But they are there to those who are receptive and have the capacity for brilliance. And we all have Uranus somewhere – even our world leaders. “


Posted on: Jan 31 2010, 07:31 PM link
read from somewhere, the influence by the last two Saturn/Uranus opposition alignment is getting weaker. I am not an astrologer so I have avoided to interpreting the nature of these events .....



Archive:
Crafting the rhythms (from prior post, post #6, May 17 2010, 09:32 PM )

...Middle term speculations:
[Level]
Dec 31 2009, 12:51 PM
The key zone to watch is 1014-1001 and 948-962
Apr 13 2010, 09:58 AM
A regular 0.382 pullback from 1229 can reach 1014 [frame 667:1229], 0.5 @948.

[Timing]
Fibonacci Time Zone (ratio 1.00) due 07/30/10-08/10/10.

...Near term speculations:
In short term, 1107 and 1176 are two key pivots to watch.
Assume the “correction” off 1220 is in the form of a (1220-1065), b (1065-1174), then, c from 1174, pass through pivot 1107, it may hit 1019 [1.00, nearby wave points 1014,1019], 1052 [0.786, nearby major FIB point is 1053]....

#8 stanley

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Posted 03 June 2010 - 02:15 PM

Crafting the rhythms series – 06/03/10

Moving to other "seasons"

The June solstice occurs at 11:29am Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) on June 21 in 2010.
After the June solstice, the sun follows a lower and lower path through the sky each day in the northern hemisphere until it reaches the point where the length of daylight is about 12 hours and eight to nine minutes in areas that are about 30 degrees north or south of the equator.
http://www.timeandda...e-solstice.html

A brief review
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May 17 2010, 09:32 PM link
1107 and 1176 are two key pivots to watch
Assume the “correction” off 1220 is in the form of a (1220-1065), b (1065-1174), then, c from 1174, pass through pivot 1107, it may hit 1019 [1.00, nearby wave points 1014,1019], 1052 [0.786, nearby major FIB point is 1053]....

May 22 2010, 07:36 PM Link
Even though the speculated middle term low is still ahead, on a closing basis, index closes above 1086 is the sign that this sub wave (of down side movement) is probably complete. 1086 comes from the frame [0.382 | 869: 1220]. For a safer confirmation, wait index closing above 1117 [gap 1113.71-1107.34]. After the safer confirmation, the speculation effort may focus on the middle term trajectory.
Beyond near term:
After a few weeks respite period. market enters another chaos. Time window is around [07/30-08/10]–09/20 (note). The possible upper rails: 1138-1157 or 1176-1186, possible lower rails: 1014 or 948
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comments: The session high 1105.67 (@this writing, 11:45am PST) on 06/03 is slightly lower than pivot 1107. Even though there were a few technicians calling 1130, the timing is running shorter. However, once index passes the gauge 1117, the odd is increasing. The window is from 06/04-06/17. We are experiencing sharp spkies. The market condition is very volatile, and vulnerable.

Fibonacci retracement map
May 25 2010, 11:31 AM
1K is a major support. 1045 is a pivot
Posted Image

King Wen Sequence
Jan 30 2010, 09:56 PM link

King_Wen_Sequence.JPG

TD: trading days
Time base 03/06/09

Low
07/08/09 85TD 0869.32
11/02/09 82TD 1019.95
02/05/10 64TD 1044.50
05/25/10 74TD 1040.78
06/04/10 81TD ????.?? very confusing
06/17/10 90TD ????.?? very confusing

High
06/11/09 67TD 0939.04
10/21/09 91TD 1101.36
01/19/10 59TD 1150.45
04/26/10 66TD 1219.80

Fibonacci Time Zone
Nov 28 2009, 11:51 PM link
From 10/11/07 (1576.09) to 03/06/09 (666.79), there were 352 trading days.

[+/-?]
01/18/10 0.618 [actual 01/19/10, off 1 TD, actual high 1150.45 vs. 1158, off +7.55]
04/15/10 0.786 [actual 04/26/10, off 7 TD, actual high 1219.80 vs. 1221, off +1.20]
07/30/10 1.000 [window 07/30/10-08/10/10, level 1014, 948]

Long PI Dates
Nov 28 2009, 11:51 PM Link

+/- 4*PI
04/15/10
09/20/10

Planet aspects
Oct 24 2009, 02:45 PM link
The Grand Cross and An Alignment for Our Times
----- A T-Cross on July 30
----- The Grand Cross on August 6
----- The Saturn-Uranus opposition – 5 alignments in 2008-2010, No.5 07/26/10

The Saturn-Uranus opposition chart Feb 23 2010, 12:49 PM
Posted Image


Bradley turn dates
chart: http://forbestadvice...bradley2010.GIF
Important Turn Dates
03/01/10
08/10/10

Due to the leading/lagging phenomenon, those “secondary” Bradley turn dates before/after the important turn date may not be ignored

Other Bradley Turn Dates
• 6/3/2010
• 6/9/2010
• 6/26/2010
• 9/11/2010
• 9/30/2010
• 10/25/2010
• 11/15 to 11/16/2010
• 12/25 to 12/26/2010

#9 stanley

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Posted 05 June 2010 - 08:22 PM

This post is an addendum to the prior post
Older comments in italic fonts

King Wen Sequence link

King_Wen_Sequence.JPG


TD: trading days
Time base 03/06/09

Low
07/08/09 85TD 0869.32
11/02/09 82TD 1019.95
02/05/10 64TD 1044.50
05/25/10 74TD 1040.78
06/04/10 81TD ????.?? very confusing
06/17/10 90TD ????.?? very confusing

High
06/11/09 67TD 0939.04
10/21/09 91TD 1101.36
01/19/10 59TD 1150.45
04/26/10 66TD 1219.80

The “primary” number, 108, in the table shown above [ based on King Wen Sequence [The 108 in King Wen's Sequence By J.M. Berger http://iching.egople.../hidden108.html ] is the same 108 trading day cycle I have mentioned in my older posts. The rolling sequence of [ 81, 126, 63, 108, 90, 99, 54, 117, 72] is beyond my scope. These numbers carry an indiscernible relationship with 108.

In between 03/06/09 and 05/25/10, each index Low is separated by a trading days that correlates with a specific number in the King Wen sequence, not exact but closer enough to be valuable. In this token, perhaps, a secondary low can be expected in between 05/25 – 06/30. Since the intraday low on 06/04 is higher than the one on 05/25, if this secondary low is still ahead, it could be in between 06/07 and 06/30, a relative narrower window.

This poster believes it is the market underlying intrinsic value determines the wave structure, the speculation reliability from the wave extrapolation is very limited. At his moment, the wave structure in the large scale time frame remains bullish. the intermediate frame wave structure does not manifests itself. Now, assume a secondary low in the aforementioned time window will occur, the next Low may be at least 54 TD away from the secondary low, around September. May be there is a deep retracement in the next few weeks,. thus a ”quick” way to reset all prior harmonics.

For intraday speculation, the first pivot is 1065, first resistance 1074, second pivot is 1085, lower support 1054, 1036-1039. Numbers can be fine tuned.

spx06042010.JPG

#10 stanley

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Posted 06 June 2010 - 12:30 PM

Crafting the rhythms series – 06/06/10

wax and wane

( A ) Becoming a primary wave

[ref 1]: Apr 29 2009, 03:23 PM
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link
By surmounting 881 [see note], the wave hierarchy changes. The rally wave since March 6th becomes a major wave. Therefore, a primary wave B (Up, counter-trend) has commenced. It is at the same level as the wave from Oct/07 to March/09 (Primary A, Down).

chart explains why the singal is conflicting.
Posted Image

[Note]:
881.38 = [0.236|666.79:1576.09] and 877= [0.618|1007:667]. The points between 877 [middle spring target] and 881 is small but By surmounting 881, the wave hierarchy changes
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secondary event signals major trend change
Posted Image


( B ) On the wane, The Bull force is weakening.......

Gauge - 785.13 = [0.786|1,219.80: 666.79]

Onset, Another conflicting zone
cc.JPG

Posted Image

comments:
Jun 3 2010, 11:15 AM Link
Due to the leading/lagging phenomenon, those “secondary” Bradley turn dates before/after the important turn date may not be ignored

[ref 2] Apr 13 2010, 09:58 AM
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link
When index exceeds 1256.98 (refer to the chart shown below) the wave status since March 09 may “separate” from the prior one (1756-->667) and become an individual segment. When the wave is becoming a separate segment, it is capable of reaching 1300 level. The half power point 0.707 from 667 to 1576 is 1310, very close to the High 1313.15 marked on 08/11/08.
Posted Image
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No separation