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Crafting the rhythms


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#101 fibo-nacy

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Posted 25 January 2012 - 04:03 PM

Update 01/25/2012

By Fibo-Nacy

At this writing, intraday high is 1328.30.
The immediate resistance is 1329.92, a 0.786 retracement from wave set 3 [1074.77|1292.66|1158.66]

As a technician, the speculation shall abide what the commonly observed Fibonacci ratio without bias. Some more details has been covered in Post# 98, 99, and 100.

The wave set (1) and (2) in chart (1) runs into the extension zone, i.e, >1.000, it is bullish.
when index takes out the important resistance 1336-1341, it has good chance breaching 1376-1440 level.
The critical support is 1127-1131 (tentative), from 1330 to 1130 is a very wide range, a 15.1% plunge.

chart (1): Layer on top of the layer, ..... here is the updated chart for the lowest 3 layers.
chart direct link: http://chartupload.c...56492770313.jpg
Posted Image

chart (2): Complete layers, This chart gives you a very clear overall picture.
chart direct link: http://chartupload.c...66712695564.jpg
Posted Image

wave set 1 [1202.37|1269.37|1248.64]
0.707 : 1296.01 vs. 1296.42 on 01/10
0.786 : 1301.30 vs. 1301.88 on 01/17
1.000 : 1315.64 vs. 1315.49 on 01/19
1.118 : 1323.55
1.236 : 1331.45
1.309 : 1336.34
1.382 : 1341.23
1.500 : 1349.14

wave set 2 [1158.66|1267.06|1202.37]
1.118 : 1323.56
1.236 : 1336.35
1.382 : 1352.18

wave set 3 [1074.77|1292.66|1158.66]
0.786 : 1329.92 vs 1328.30 on 01/25
0.809 : 1334.93
1.000 : 1376.55

#102 fibo-nacy

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Posted 26 January 2012 - 02:41 PM

Update 01/26/2012

By Fibo-Nacy

intraday high 1333.47 as of 01/26/12, 09h:59m EST

will see meaningful pullback when index drops below 1312.11

chart direct link: http://chartupload.c...21925529015.jpg
Posted Image

(Jan 24 )
Use the monthly chart, the trend line connect 1576 and 1371 may intercept with the wave extension around 1334-1342

Will S&P500 Index turn around before the critical inflection point? I can't speak for the future. So I don't want to jinx it..

chart direct link: http://chartupload.c...74531081976.jpg
Posted Image

wave set 1 [1202.37|1269.37|1248.64]
0.707 : 1296.01 vs. 1296.42 on 01/10
0.786 : 1301.30 vs. 1301.88 on 01/17
1.000 : 1315.64 vs. 1315.49 on 01/19
1.118 : 1323.55
1.236 : 1331.45
1.309 : 1336.34
1.382 : 1341.23
1.500 : 1349.14

wave set 2 [1158.66|1267.06|1202.37]
1.118 : 1323.56
1.236 : 1336.35
1.382 : 1352.18

wave set 3 [1074.77|1292.66|1158.66]
0.786 : 1329.92 vs. 1328.30 on 01/25
0.809 : 1334.93 vs. 1333.47 on 01/26
1.000 : 1376.55

The 108 trading day cycle is due on 03/12
The King Wen’s sequence [Low: 12/20, 01/31, 02/13...], [High: 01/17, 01/30, 02/10...]
- There's only two trading days to 01/30, within the margin.
- Assume the low 1202.38 marked on 12/19 is a valid sequence. starts with a new sequence, the next low could be 03/08, 03/21. The King Wen’s shortest sequence is 54, so it did not capture the low 1158.66 marked on 11/25. If the volatility shoots up in the next few weeks, I expect another secondary low before 03/08.

CBOE Volatility Index, http://www.marketwat...sting/index/vix
Monday, January 23, 2012, low 18.55

#103 fibo-nacy

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 03:12 PM

Updates 01/27/2012

By Fibo-Nacy

hanging tough, the Clock is Ticking

Jan 22 - S&P500 index is due for a pullback
Jan 26 - will see meaningful pullback when index drops below 1312.11
Jan 27 - intraday, at this writing, a 21.75 pullback was observed but not ‘big’ enough

high 1333.47, January 26, 09h:58 am EST
low. 1311.72, January 27, 12h:16 pm EST

reference frame: 1333.47 vs. 1277.55, retracement 0.382 @ 1312.11

King Wen’s sequence
[Low: 12/20, 01/04, 01/18, 01/31,02/13...] (12/19 @1202.37 could be the one, need confirmation)
[High 01/17, 01/30, 02/10, ....]

chart direct link: http://chartupload.c...68757752192.jpg
Posted Image

#104 fibo-nacy

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Posted 30 January 2012 - 02:41 AM

Crafting the rhythms series III, January 29, 2012

By Fibo-Nacy & Stanley

Indices monthly chart – July 1993 – January 2012

chart [1]
Posted Image

chart [2]
Posted Image

(Jan 24 )
Use the monthly chart, the trend line connect 1576 and 1371 may intercept with the wave extension around 1334-1342
Will S&P500 Index turn around before the critical inflection point? I can't speak for the future. So I don't want to jinx it..


chart [3], I re-plotted the trend line with a weekly chart
Posted Image

(Jan 25)
when index takes out the important resistance 1336-1341, it has good chance breaching 1376-1440 level.
The critical support is 1127-1131 (tentative)(edit: nullify the bullish scenario), from 1330 to 1130 is a very wide range, a 15.1% plunge.


comments:
wave set [1202.37|1269.37|1248.64]
1.309 : 1336.34
1.382 : 1341.23
1.500 : 1349.14
wave set [1158.66|1267.06|1202.37]
1.236 : 1336.35
wave set [1074.77|1292.66|1158.66]
0.809 : 1334.93 vs. 1333.47 on 01/26
1.000 : 1376.55
1.309 : 1443.88

wave set [1158.66|1267.06|1202.37] (grey dark color, right corner of chart 4) has traveled a length very close to Fibonacci ratio 1.236, it was on extension certainly. However wave set [1074.77|1292.66|1158.66] from October low, the wave traveled almost an exact 0.809 length (1334.93 vs. 1333.47). This ratio is bigger than 0.786, implies an incomplete ‘tour’. At 1.0, it will reach 1376.55, at 1.308 (2.618/2) it will reach 1443.88. To speculate which ratio has better odds requires to study the time ratio too. Unfortunately, my charting tool does not provide such luxury options.

chart [4]
Posted Image

chart [5] support & resistance
A standard 0.236 retracement (1333.47 vs. 1202.37) will put index at 1302.53, refer to the chart for some more support points. the resistance is 1336.35 & 1341.23
Posted Image

In the chart [4], there is a long term monthly SPX 'snapshot' in the upper left corner, I put an ascending trend line and a descending trend line. What kind pattern it resembles? What is the wave count relationship in between the high in 2002 and the high in 2007? Peter Goodburn (wavetrack) wrote a nice article about the Expanding Diagonal Patterns, worth your time to read. ..........

Expanding Diagonal Patterns - Do they really exist?
By Peter Goodburn 1st December 2009
http://www.wavetrack...l-patterns.html

WaveTrack International GmbH
Website/URL http://www.wavetrack.com

Thanks to MultiHoster http://forexrainbow.com/ (free image hosting)

#105 fibo-nacy

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Posted 02 February 2012 - 12:18 PM

Update 20/20/2012

By Fibo-Nacy

After the expected pullback 1333.47-->1300.49 (projected 1302.53). Index ascends.
I colorized the wave segment in the active wave set so you can see the ambiguity on the wave counting.
in essence, Index is retesting the resistance. also refer to my prior posts. Thank You.

wave set [1202.37|1269.37|1248.64]
0.707 : 1296.01 vs. 1296.42 on 01/10
0.786 : 1301.30 vs. 1301.88 on 01/17
1.000 : 1315.64 vs. 1315.49 on 01/19
1.118 : 1323.55 vs. 1322.28 on 01/23, vs 1321.41 on 01/31
1.236 : 1331.45 vs. 1330.52 on 02/01
1.309 : 1336.34
1.382 : 1341.23
1.500 : 1349.14

wave set [1074.77|1292.66|1158.66]
0.786 : 1329.92 vs. 1328.30 on 01/25, vs 1329.19 on 02/02 (as of 02/02 9:00am PST)
0.809 : 1334.93 vs. 1333.47 on 01/26


Posted Image
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#106 fibo-nacy

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Posted 03 February 2012 - 12:14 PM

Crafting the rhythms series III, 02/03/2012

Index at the inflection point (to see 1376.55-1443.88)

By Fibo-Nacy

Jan 25 2012, 01:03 PM
The wave set (1) and (2) runs into the extension zone, i.e, >1.000, it is bullish.
when index takes out the important resistance 1336-1341, it has good chance breaching 1376-1440 level.


Jan 29 2012, 11:41 PM
wave set 3 [1074.77|1292.66|1158.66] from October low, has traveled almost an exact 0.809 length (1334.93 vs. 1333.47). This ratio is bigger than 0.786, implies an incomplete ‘tour’. At 1.0, it will reach 1376.55, at 1.308 (2.618/2) it will reach 1443.88.

Jan 27 2012, 12:12 PM
King Wen’s sequence
[Low: 12/20, 01/04, 01/18, 01/31, 02/13...] (12/19 @1202.37 could be was the one, need confirmation)
[High 01/17, 01/30, 02/10, ....]


New comments:
(1) as of 02/03 9am PST, intraday high is 1343.15.
Index punches through the important resistance 1334-1342. The ‘extrusion’ is 1.92 ( = 1343.15 - 1341.23).
At this moment, bear may count on that '1.92' is within the margin.

(2) Time wise, it is 4 trading days 'longer' (late) than the projected 01/30, at the margin limit. The next high window is 02/10.

wave set 1 [1202.37|1269.37|1248.64]
0.707 : 1296.01 vs. 1296.42 on 01/10
0.786 : 1301.30 vs. 1301.88 on 01/17
1.000 : 1315.64 vs. 1315.49 on 01/19
1.118 : 1323.55 vs. 1322.28 on 01/23, vs 1321.41 on 01/31
1.236 : 1331.45 vs. 1330.52 on 02/01
1.309 : 1336.34
1.382 : 1341.23 vs. 1342.64 on 02/03
1.500 : 1349.14

wave set 2 [1158.66|1267.06|1202.37]
1.118 : 1323.56 vs. 1322.28 on 01/23, vs 1321.41 on 01/31
1.236 : 1336.35
1.382 : 1352.18

wave set 3 [1074.77|1292.66|1158.66]
0.786 : 1329.92 vs. 1328.30 on 01/25
0.809 : 1334.93 vs. 1333.47 on 01/26
1.000 : 1376.55
1.308 : 1443.88

note: as of 02/03 9am PST, intraday high is 1343.15
Posted Image

Jan 29 2012, 11:41 PM
Posted Image

Jan 25 2012, 01:03 PM
Layer on top of the layer, ..... here is the updated chart for the lowest 3 layers.
Posted Image
Thanks to MultiHoster http://forexrainbow.com/ (free image hosting)

#107 fibo-nacy

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 03:23 AM

Crafting the rhythms series III, 02/05/2012

Year of the Water Dragon

An excellent photography Tale of the Dragon
creditor: Photos of Creation - John Fan Photography, http://johnfanphotography.com/

By Fibo-Nacy

Reviews

(old post in italic font)

(i) Dec 9 2011, 11:09 AM link
range bound [1277.55-1256.79-1215.42] [bullish-neutral-bearish]

On 01/05, index closed at 1283.05. Since then, index headed higher. In retrospect, one might think this call is too conservative. In the Crafting the rhythms series III, you can find many these kind simple gauges had worked effectively. I will initiate a new set that aims on the middle to long term in a later section.
Posted Image

(ii) Jan 17 2012, 10:37 AM link
Retaking 1294, a profound development:
SPX index regained the 1293.61 pivot with good margin ( 1303.00 vs. 1293.61 ), as a technician, I shall abide what I have seen & interpret the chart without bias.

Without violating the critical support, a High has yet to be seen. In other words, the uptrend since March/09 is still intact.

(iii) Nov 25 2011, 11:38 AM link
King Wen’s sequence:
[low: 12/20, 01/04, 01/18, 01/31, 02/13 ....] (12/19)
[high 01/17, 01/30, 02/10......]


Low: root date 10/04, 1074.77
High: root date 10/27, 1292.66

The Low observed on 12/19 has been confirmed. This secondary low happened one trading day earlier than what King Wen’s sequence had projected. Now let’s focus on whether a secondary high will take place in between 01/30 and 02/10. I use the wording ‘secondary’ because the King Wen’s sequence is an immediate term time speculator.

In terms of cycle, Eric Hadik covered much more technical information in his “The INSIIDE Track - 01/31/12’.
Here is a short quote:
"Stock Indices reinforced the uncanny reliability of the 11-Week Cycle as they surged from their projected December 19--23rd lows... .... The Dec. 19th low created an 11-week high-high-high-low-low ...... .... ... all aligning on March 5--9, 2012, the 3-year anniversary of the March 6/9, 2009 major low. The Dec. 19th low was also the midpoint of the most consistent cycle throughout the past 5 years ....... ....... ...it comes back into play in early-February).

read more

(iv) Oct 28 2011, 10:01 AM link
So far, the 108 trading day cycle has recurred 4 times, the next one is due on 03/12/12 +/-. This particular cycle recurs and dampens out 'quietly', hardly get a handle on it.

updated chart (02/04/2012)
Posted Image

Depends on whether the begin/end date shall be counted, the 108 trading day cycle counting from 10/04/11 is due on 03/09/12 (Friday) or 03/12/12 (Monday), +/-. Keep a note that there is no sure thing it will recur again.
Let’s check what a new King Wen’s sequence will say. By counting the low date from 12/19, the earliest low date for a new King Wen’s sequence will fall on 03/08/12 (54 trading days), and then, 03/21/12 (63 trading days); So, put these cycle time information all together, including the aforementioned time window ( “all aligning on March 5--9, 2012” ), Will we see an Apex or Trough in the time window 03/05-03/12? Secondary or Primary? I think the trails is still fuzzy but the misty forest will get clear up very soon. In an anecdotal writing style, I sense there is strong conflict. How about this way, once it transpires I will let you know why. the hint is already embedded in this section.

Let me do another short quote :

MMA Comments for the Week Beginning February 6, 2012
Written by Raymond Merriman
“The “Asset Inflation Express” is back on track. But not far ahead is yet another treacherous curve. Jupiter is fast approaching 7° of Taurus, the end of the cosmic line when equity prices historically complete long-term cycle crests.”

read more

Outlook:

In the paper Peter Goodburn wrote, he mentioned “Elliott's inclusion of the Contracting Diagonal”, then he brought the new concepts: “The Expanding-Diagonal, a mirror image of the Contracting type pattern” and “Triangle terminology - counter-trend vs. trend impulse patterns”. furthermore, he wrote “During the many years of teaching the Wave Principle, I have found students often confused by this because both are distinctly different types of pattern, yet both incorporate the term "triangle". To make it easier, I have dropped the association "triangle" when referring to the diagonal so that a diagonal is either a generic leading-contracting/expanding diagonal or an ending-contracting/expanding diagonal, leaving out the term triangle altogether.”

Author Terms
EXPANDING DIAGONAL PATTERNS
By Peter Goodburn
Charts compiled & edited by Kamil Rajec
http://www.wavetrack...l-patterns.html

WaveTrack International (WTI) - http://www.wavetrack...ernational.html
WaveTrack International GmbH http://www.wavetrack.com/
All rights are copyright to WaveTrack. Reproduction and/or dissemination without WaveTrack's prior consent is strictly forbidden. We encourage reviews, quotation and reference but request that full credit is given.

{ I skip a long section I wrote earlier. Anyway, these gobbledygook wave ‘infrastructure’ is not very effective way for a pictorial outlook. I may post it when grapes are ripen }

The following chart is the essence of this post.
The critical resistance is 1332-1342, one level up to see 1376-1440. second critical resistance is 1440-1450 to see the new high, >1576. The critical support is 1133, one level down to see 966, very close to Stanley’s long term target he posted in Apr 2011 (950, 940-972)

1132.67 = [0.786:(1345.34–1074.77]
966.03 = [0.559:(1345.34-0666.79]
Posted Image

#108 fibo-nacy

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 12:57 PM

Update 02/08/2012

By Fibo-Nacy

SPX: intraday 1351.00 @10:07AM EST

wave set 1 [1202.37|1269.37|1248.64]
1.500 : 1349.14 vs. 1349.24 on 02/07
1.618 : 1357.05

wave set 2 [1158.66|1267.06|1202.37]
1.382 : 1352.18 vs. 1351.00 on 02/08, in progress
1.500 : 1364.97

wave set 3 [1074.77|1292.66|1158.66]
1.000 : 1376.55
1.308 : 1443.88

King Wen’s sequence
[low: 12/20, 01/04, 01/18, 01/31, 02/13 ....] (12/19, confrimed low date, root 10/04)
[high: 01/17, 01/30, 02/10......] (pending, root 10/27)

New King Wen’s sequence (low), root 12/19
[low: 03/08, 03/21, ..... ..... ]

108 trading day cycle 03/09 (Friday) - 03/12 (Monday) +/-

Harmonic may be observed in between 02/08 and 03/12
Posted Image
Thanks to MultiHoster for free image hosting for http://forexrainbow.com/

Market Turning Points
By: Andre Gratian | Sun, Feb 5, 2012
There has been a very dependable 10 trading day-cycle which last bottomed on 1/30 and which is due again on 2/13. That should be an important time marker because, depending on how much price weakness there is going into it, and how much strength coming out of it, we should be able to estimate if early March will be a low or a high.
The first week in March brings together a cluster of cycles which will probably mark a low.


Read more: http://www.safehaven...-turning-points

#109 fibo-nacy

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Posted 09 February 2012 - 02:55 PM

Update 02/09/2012

by Fibo-Nacy

Getting closer, breaching the limit, ST wise.
[high: 01/17, 01/30, 02/10 ... ... ] (high date is pending, root 10/27)

SPX immediate resistance is 1352.18 - 1357.05 - 1364.97
as of 02/09,, 13h27mins, it reached 1354.32,
the mean value in between 1352.18 - 1357.05 is 1354.62

SPX chart (02/08)

NDX immediate resistance is 2563.95 - 2579.19
as of 02/09, 13h27mins EST, it reached 2566.87

Posted Image
Thanks to MultiHoster for free image hosting for http://forexrainbow.com/

#110 fibo-nacy

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Posted 13 February 2012 - 02:28 PM

Crafting the rhythms series III, 02/013/2012

The March Equinox

By Fibo_nacy

It’s time for spring: The March equinox will occur on March 20, 2012. This marks the beginning of spring in the northern hemisphere (http://www.timeandda...ch-equinox.html )

SPX key dates in March
03/24/00 1,552.87
03/06/09 666.79

Review:

Stanley Oct 4 2011, 01:16 AM link
“Be cautious, the fact that wave ‘B’ roughly retraced 0.786 (actual 0.774, 0.786@1381) of wave ‘A’ suggests 5x3x5 might not fit, and there are different forms to deploy.”

comments:

wave A 352 trading days - 10/11/07 - 03/06/09 (1576.09-666.79)
wave B 740 trading days - 03/06/09- in progress (740: 03/06/09-02/10/12)

It is hard to say the wave structure will morph into different forms, at leapt, The WaveTrack still maintained wave A,B,(therefore C) labeling. Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis also has the same labeling: chart
Wave B its time length is longer than wave A. So far it has a time ratio 2.10. At ratio 2.118 it will be 745 trading days. (02/17 – 02/21). large time frame has wider +/- margin. In essence: The event that Index took out 1292 has established a bullish stance. Thereafter, It also took out the important inflection zone 1334-1342. The bull strength is solid. Only time can resolve its stiffness. Key points to watch 1357-1365, 1376, 1440-1450; 1315-1318, 1295-1302, 1125-1135, 960.

Short term

The King Wen’s sequence is a really interesting sequence.
It speculated there could be two head-to-head conflicts on 03/08 and 03/21.
How can that be?

possible High dates - root 10/27 (1292.66)
72 02/10
81 02/24
90 03/08
99 03/21

possible low dates - root 12/19 (1202.37)
54 03/08
63 03/21

King Wen’s sequence & 108 trading day cycle has nailed the October low accurately.
The next one could fall in 03/09-03/12, +/-
root 10/04
108 03/09 Friday-03/12 Monday

wave set 1 [1202.37|1269.37|1248.64]
1.618 : 1357.05

wave set 2 [1158.66|1267.06|1202.37]
1.382 : 1352.18 vs. 1354,32 on 02/09
1.500 : 1364.97

wave set 3 [1074.77|1292.66|1158.66]
1.000 : 1376.55
1.308 : 1443.88

Posted Image
Posted Image

02/06/2012
Posted Image