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Crafting the rhythms


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#121 fibo-nacy

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 02:26 PM

03/12/2012

By Fibo-Nacy

I complied the High/Low Time Windows into the following chart.

[A] For the High Window
counts from 10/27, King Wen’s Sequence has 02/24 (81), 03/08(0), 03/21(99) ....

S&P500 marked a high on 02/29, it was 3TDS late than the projected date 02/24. Without a Low we can't confirm 02/29 was the High we were/are looking for.

[B} For the Low Window
counts from 12/19, King Wen’s Sequence has 03/08 (54), 03/21 (63), .....

S&P500 marked a low on 03/06, it was 2TDs early than the projected date 03/08. It is hard to say that was the low.

[C] 108TDs cycle
Has an effective time window 03/12-03/21

Summary:
The index movement from 03/12 to 03/21 would be very interesting. We got ‘candidate’ for both High & Low, which one is a fake? I let Lady Maket deploy her own rhythms.

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#122 fibo-nacy

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 01:41 PM

Crafting the rhythms series III, 03/13/2012

The Moment of Truth - the sun has risen once again

By Fibo-Nacy

review:
Mar 5 2012, 10:22 AM
In May last year, the 0.786 retracement point 1381.50 from all time low/high has been challenged but the Bull did not make it. This time this important point is under siege again.

Bull takes of the long term major resistance 1381.50
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also this chart (intraday high 1385.18 @2:20 pm EDT. immediate resistance 1387.41)

are you a Night Wanderer?

Here are two dramatic musical ‘themes ‘, which one is in your mind?

(1) 2001: A Space Odyssey Theme Song [Sunrise - Also sprach Zarathustra]


(2) V for Vendetta 1812 Overture opening and ending scene


Reminder:
Mar 11 2012, 01:05 AM
The Spring Equinox is fast Approaching, there is a cycle cluster in between 03/12, (03/16) and 03/21. IMHO, 1381.50/0.786 is an important gauge. So, I think once index takes out 1381.50, even a milder pullback comes after, we have a good chance to see 1402/1403-1459.78. A violation of the important supports 1292.66, 1267.06 is the early sign of the weakness.


Retracements/Cycle clusters

From all time low 666.79 to the all time high 1576.09
0.786 : 1381.50
0.809 : 1402.01

wave set 2 [1158.66|1267.06|1202.37]
1.618 : 1377.76
1.707 : 1387.41
1.854 : 1403.34

wave set 3 [1074.77|1292.66|1158.66]
1.000 : 1376.55
1.118 : 1402.26
1.382 : 1459.78

complete:
Richard Strauss - Also sprach Zarathustra, Op. 30 – Karajan
Tchaikovsky - 1812 Overture
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#123 fibo-nacy

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 01:52 PM

03/14/2012

by Fibo-Nacy

Review:

Jan 1 2012, 04:20 PM link
Gold: The Darling
Use ATR (the Average True Range) 20% for 2012, & assumes the low is 1500/1300 in 2012.
1500 * 1.2 = 1800 (comments: not too far off, right?)
1300 * 1.2 = 1560


comments: This does not look good
Posted Image

Outlooks:

[1] Near term:
A test of the 1400 psychological level, Fibonacci cluster near 1402/1403.

[2] middle term
1400-1460 is a critical zone for the bullish scenario. key support 1343/1344, 1310. Reversal confirmation 1292-1280.

Mar 1 2012, 01:24 PM
In a wave system that every pullback from a high is higher than the prior high, this is the simplest way to define an open system. The actual bullish impulse wave is more complicated than a simple open wave system. The key is the ‘energy’ that needs to be consumed to propel the ascending action. The long term bullish wave projection assumes, implicitly, the ‘energy’ is abundant. One of these days, the liquidity will stop, the wave collapses

Here is the bearish scenario.
The odds is increasing. A trend reversal takes time, avoid ‘rampant’ decision.

upper chart: 02/04
lower chart: 03/14 based on the latest data

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#124 fibo-nacy

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Posted 21 March 2012 - 02:36 PM

Updates - 03/21/2012

by Fibo-Nacy

1459.78: a point too far?
Not that far when index takes out the resistance 1416.05 & 1419.17.
But, it also has to deal with a time factor.

wave set 2 [1158.66|1267.06|1202.37]
2.000 1419.17

wave set 3 [1074.77|1292.66|1158.66]
1.308 : 1443.88
1.382 : 1459.78

older chart (03/14)

Elliott wave speculation runs into a dilemma.
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#125 stanley

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Posted 24 March 2012 - 06:35 PM

Crafting the rhythms – Final

03/24/2012, Stanley and Fibo-Nacy

There are times when silence is golden, and one of those times is at hand
After a few discussions with Fibo,
We marked the Dot,
it was Yesterday.
We decided
this is our last post.

This forum -Crafting the rhythms- will be in our memory.
It's the Journey Not the Destination.

My Best Wishes to all of you

From that distant land

#126 diogenes227

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Posted 26 March 2012 - 09:50 AM

Crafting the rhythms – Final

03/24/2012, Stanley and Fibo-Nacy

There are times when silence is golden, and one of those times is at hand
After a few discussions with Fibo,
We marked the Dot,
it was Yesterday.
We decided
this is our last post.

This forum -Crafting the rhythms- will be in our memory.
It's the Journey Not the Destination.

My Best Wishes to all of you

From that distant land


Thank you for your diligence in posting, the musical and poetic pleasure you brought to this thread and your excellent technical analysis.

Best to you in all endeavors.
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

“I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted,” W.C. Fields.

#127 fibo-nacy

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Posted 27 August 2012 - 01:20 AM

Posted Image

The Sunflower - A new chapter begins ......

Time cluster: August 17, September 4, 17/18, 25/26
Posted Image

Feb 6 2012, 01:23 AM
Crafting the rhythms series III, 02/05/2012
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=612828
The critical resistance is 1332-1342, one level up to see 1376-1440
Posted Image

Mar 8 2012, 12:34 PM
Crafting the rhythms series III, 03/08/2012
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=615867
.... 12/19 was a key date. There were 6 layers waves ( http://forexrainbow....77754475877.jpg ) in the expanding diagonal. The root of the 6th layer started on 12/19. No one knows for sure where it ends and when it ends, But it is good time to ask: Are we there yet?

So far, Layer 6 (root 1202.37) has no meaningful pullback (0.236 1336.58). By reviewing the 0.236/0.382/0.616 retracements for layer 4,5,6 in the chart ( http://forexrainbow....18846644291.jpg ) It is very clear that 1292.66, 1267.06, 1381.50 are critical check points. The index has to ‘grow’ higher so that the 0.618 pullback will not be lower than 1292.66 & 1267.06......

(on 06/04 index breached 1266.74 and then it bounced off, hmmm)
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#128 fibo-nacy

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Posted 30 August 2012 - 11:18 AM

Dancing to the rhythm

08/30/2012 Fibo-nacy

Time cluster
(1) Fibonacci Time Zone ratio
The high in August 22 is 2 trading days (TDS) off 0.786. An equal length (1.0) is due on September 26/27

(2) 108 TDS
The time window is about 2/3 weeks wide so the high on August 22 requires confirmation.

(3) Long PI
On September 17/18, 2012, it is the 2000 * PI TDS from the October 19, 1987 Black Monday.
Others notable Long PI dates are:
1000.7 * PI from 10/19/1987 to 03/24/2000 (3144 TDS)
1603.9 * PI from 10/19/1987 to 10/11/2007 (5039 TDS)

(4) About the same time (September 17/18) , the middle term of the Bradley Siderograph reaches a major turn window, (refer to this chart ). The major turn date is due on 12/22 so September 17/18 is either violent or beginning of a violent actions.

(5) Uranus-Pluto Squares - 09/19/12
http://www.astrology...ranuspluto.html
Exact 7 times 06/24/12, 09/19/12, 05/20/13, 11/01/13, 04/21/14, 12/15/14, 03/17/15

Fibonacci retracements/E wave
To match the high 1426.68 observed on August 22. one calculation is shown in this chart; We can also use (1292.66 – 1074.77 ) * 1.236 + 1158.66 = 1427.97.

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#129 fibo-nacy

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Posted 09 September 2012 - 12:00 AM

Dancing to the rhythm

09/08/2012 Fibo-Nacy

Quotes of Claude Monet

"A color that I had found and sketched on one of these canvases yesterday reappears in the air. I am quickly given this painting and strive to fix this vision as permanently as possible. But it usually vanishes as fast as it sprang up, making way for another color I had already painted days ago on another study instantly put in front of me... And that is the way it is all day long."

"These landscapes of water and reflections have became my obsession. They are far beyond my old man powers and despite everything I want to succeed in conveying what I feel. I destroy some... I start over again... And I hope something will finally come from so many efforts."

"Whereas you are philosophically seeking the world in itself, I am simply focusing my efforts on a maximurm of appearences in close correlations with unknown realities."


http://www.intermone...re/pontjapo.htm
http://www.intermone...re/nymphea1.htm


On September 07, S&P500 closed at 1437.92.
The closing point is so close to the long awaited pivot 1440 (upper chart)
There are a few E-wave & Fibonacci points in between 1481.56 and 1440.55.
For simplicity, I put just one of it in the chart, thus 1454.27 ( sin(60)= 0.866, 1576.09, 666.79 ).

The upper limit 1481.56 is a wave terminal point, also a gate to the 1500-1600 plateau.
[(1422.38-1074.77) (1266.74)]
0.618 1481.56 gate to the 1500-1600 plateau
0.786 1539.96
1.000 1614.35 the expanding diagonal intersection point

On the lower rail, the first major support is 1257.71 [0.236 (1440.24, 666.79)]. The retracement as long as stays above 1257.71 is considered a correction. The detail breakdowns in between 1481.56 and 1257.71 will be discussed in the next few posts. There is a long term support at 1053.52. So, the long term low target 940-972 seems not reachable in the next few months.


Jan 29 2012, 11:41 PM
Posted Image

Aug 30 2012, 08:18 AM
http://forexrainbow....66993498166.jpg

Posted Image
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#130 fibo-nacy

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Posted 16 September 2012 - 05:18 PM

Dancing to the rhythm

09/16/2012 Fibo-Nacy

'The dragon is on the wing in the sky'
‘as if he were leaping up, but still in the deep’ (see note)

There are 115 trading days (TDs) from the late April high 1422.38 (on 04/02/12) to last Friday high 1474.51 (on 09/14/12). The time window for 108 TDs cycle will drift out on 09/25-26, ( post #128 ); Even though the index still looks bullish, the bullishness could be prolonged just a little longer; I am watching the actions around the pivot 1481.56. Here is a quick summary:

Upper rail based on wave set [(1422.38-1074.77) (1266.74)]
0.618 1481.56 gate to the 1500-1600 plateau
0.707 1512.50
0.786 1539.96
1.000 1614.35 a possible expanding diagonal intersection point

Local retracements [1481.56-1266.74]
0.236 1430.86
0.324 1412.04
0.382 1399.50 regular pullback limit

Long term lower rail target [1481.56-666.79]
0.500 1074.18 +/-

Posted Image

'The dragon exceeds the proper limits; there will be occasion for repentance' (see note)

An excellent photograph foretells The Tale of the Dragon - http://johnfanphotog...771650914-4.jpg
( creditor © John Fan Photography http://johnfanphotography.com/ )

Note: from page 3 - http://93beast.fea.s.....ing Legge.pdf
Swallow (Album: Kazakh Spirit, 2008): a song originated from kazakhstan
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