140 replies to this topic

[stanley]

Crafting the rhythms series – 08/10/10

Overall comments:
Wait for topping process completion, reference chart 07/08

( a ) intraday status

Refer to the chart, the ascending wedge did a channel shifting. The nearby supports are 1113, 1105-1109. Wedge break- down gauge is 1097-1098. Resistance : refer to ( b )

[upload function is not working at this writing, links to an older chart from IndexCalls posted on 08/10 11:45 AM]


( b ) Near term

Upper side
1137 - is an unrealized target
nearby cluster zone range from 1137 to 1159
- 1137, refer to post #29, 08/01
- 1159 = (1219.90 – 1010.91) * 0.707 + 1010.91
- 1140 = (1219.90 – 1010.91) * 0.618 + 1010.91

Lower side
- 1000-1013, a retracement of 0.707-0.786 from 1140 of length 179 (=1220-1041)
- 976-987, 980=1140 – (1140-1011)*1.236

( c ) Middle term
So far the pullback from 1219 (04/26) is considered a correction of a longer term bullish wave structure, with an unrealized middle term second target 944-948. The first target (around 1008) had been met on 07/01 (1010.91).

Large frame
-1008, 1220-0667 0.382 .
-0944, 1220-0667 0.500
-0861, 0667-1576 0.786
-0785, 1220-0667 0.786, travels down to this level marks the end of the rally since March 09.
-1176 = (1219-667) * 0.304 + 1009 [0.3 = 1.5/5, observed ratio 0.304]
-1228 = (1219-667) * 0.500 + 952
-1381 = (1219-667) * 0.786 + 948
-1310, 0667-1576 0.707

( d ) Timing window

Key dates
04/26/10 1219.80 High
07/01/10 1010.91 Secondary Low
08/09/10 1129.24 Secondary High [in progress, to be confirmed]

King Wen’s Sequence [108 based, 100 * PI /3 = 105, 20-22 calendar weeks]
- There are 73 trading days from 04/26/10 (1219.80) to 08/09/10 (1129.24). The nearby King Wen’s sequence number is 72.

Fibonacci Time Zone 1.0 due 07/30. +/- 4PI
as of 08/10, +6 trading days from the center 07/30. The last deviation was 7 trading days, 04/26 vs 04/15.

The next (secondary?) low is at least 54 trading days from 07/01.

[stanley]

Crafting the rhythms series 08/14/10

[This poster is not an investment advisor, nor a registered investment advisor. Viewers should always check with their licensed financial advisor and their tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment.]

chart Jul 8 2010, 11:44 AM


The “fearless” speculation made on 07/08 is partially transpired, however, Index did not hit 1040/1037, it marked an intraday high 1129.24 on 08/09. Now, “we” are waiting for the index to roll down.

Timing
- Refer to “Big Picture”, wave A 353 has trading days. Wave B is in progress; Up to 08/09, wave B elapsed 360 trading days. So, the secondary “peak” observed on 08/09 is 6/7 trading days after the center date 07/30, the deviation is just within the Fibonacci Time Zone (ratio 1.0) window.
- There are 73 trading days from 04/26/10 (1219.80) to 08/09/10 (1129.24). The nearby King Wen’s sequence number is 72. Close enough. While the secondary “peak” needs to be confirmed, this Sequence gives some good hint.

Support/Resistnce
- 1137 is an unrealized target.
- Use the local frame 1010.31-1129.24, resistance is 1094-1104, down pivot 1084, support 1070-1055, 1045-1035.
- Break down: ( [0.707] 1045, 1094, [0.382] 1084, 1055, [0.236] 1101, 1038, [0.786] 1035, 1104, [0.5] 1070)
- More details can be found in the prior post, post #30

Speculation
Here is another “fearless” speculation. Since the upload function is not available at this writing, I link the chart I plotted in IndexsCall ([url="http://<a%20href="http://indexcalls.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=2432&view=findpost&p=592625"%20target="_blank">http://indexcalls.co...st&p=592625</a>"]08/12[/url]) into this post.
The chart suggests there are fractals evolving. Fractals don't need to be in "high fidelity", Fractal in the following chart is a little bit mind twisting. However, the entire B-C could be a copy of B, and, F1/F2 could be a larger duplication of f1/f2, and f1/f2... If the ratio repeats itself, C would reach 968, not far from the original target 976-987. This fractal speculation bear two assumptions: (1) index deployed a secondary peak 1129.24 on 08/09, (2) Down force is strong enough to crack the strong support 1000-1013.



Big picture
count for reference only.
chart can't be uploaded, so I can only use purple color to differentiate between A & A( in the above chart) ]

--------------------
A – DN, 1576.07-667.79, 10/11/07-03/06/09, 5 waves, 353 trading days
--------------------
B - UP, 0666.79-????.??, 03/06/09-??/??/??, 3 waves,
- A UP, 0666.79-1219.80, 03/06/09-04/26/10 5 waves, 287 trading days.
- B DN, 1219.80-???.??, speculation: 3 waves, c target: 976-987, 968, 944-948 , 861.
- C UP, target & Timing is premature to gauge, could be Q1/2010
--------------------
C - DN, target & Timing is premature to gauge
--------------------

[stanley]

Some timing discussion

Long PI Dates
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nov 28 2009, 11:51 PM link
+/- 4*PI
04/15/10
09/20/10 [09/17 miscalculated due to holidays]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
May 6 2010, 01:41 PM link
As stated on 02/06, I divide the speculation scope into two time zones. The first zone is from 01/18 to 04/26. The second zone is from 07/23 to 09/17. The month of May and June serves as a fulcrum that bridge the two time zones. I put the index movement in the first time zone as a correction category, the level to be observed are 1010-1001 and 951-965; the correction becomes a more serious decline if Index dives below 951, thus the scope of the second time zone
--------------------------------
Jul 5 2010, 06:36 PM
04/15/10 actual 04/26, error 2.2PI. index deployed a middle term High
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

To accommodate the deviation observed on 04/26, the next Long PI date is 09/29 +/-. The date may drift due to the cycle length is not in good confidence, ranges 108 – 112. Polarity is always a puzzle, but, it can be perceived 1-2 weeks before the target date.

Use different method, I came out three dates for a potential secondary Low. The (still in experimental ) method will be elaborated when the projection transpires
09/17—09/30—10/26


Aug 14 2010, 10:55 PM
Support/Resistnce
- 1137 is an unrealized target.
- Use the local frame 1010.31-1129.24, resistance is 1094-1104, down pivot 1084, support 1070-1055, 1045-1035.

[stanley]

Crafting the rhythms series – 09/03/2010

September equinox - Sept 23 03:09 ( UTC date and time )

seasonal senery: Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming

Brief review:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jul 8 2010, 11:44 AM post # 20
The critical pivots to gauge the direction is 1096 [up] and 1042 [down].
chart http://traders-talk....14590_thumb.jpg
chart indicated 1140 as the potential high roll over point, 976-987 as the potential low target zone

Aug 14 2010, 10:55 PM post # 32
- 1137 is an unrealized target.
- Use the local frame 1010.31-1129.24, resistance is 1094-1104, down pivot 1084, support 1070-1055, 1045-1035.

Aug 17 2010, 09:01 AM post # 33
Dates for a potential secondary Low. 09/17—09/30—10/26
Polarity is always a puzzle, but, it can be perceived 1-2 weeks before the target date.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

( a ) Index marked an intraday high 1129.24 on 08/09, off target 11 points, Then, reversed down.
( b ) Index visited 1094-1104, 1084, 1070-1055, and 1045-1035; On 8/31, after index made the third attempts on 1040, it reversed back to zone 1094-1104. a quite impressive vertical jump.
( c ) Since index closed higher than the gauges 1084 and 1096, Bull owns the upper hand at this writing.
( d ) Dates for a potential secondary Low. 09/17—09/30—10/26, in progress.

Updates:

1. As long as index stays above 1096, it dismisses near term bearish calls.
2. Target dates for a secondary low is in between 09/17–10/26. details refer to [1],( a ) & ( b )
3. Target zone 1000-1013, 968 – 987. The middle term target is 944-948

[ 1 ] Near term

( a ) King Wen's Sequence

[81,126,63,108,90,99,54,117,72] (not in a sequential order)

High
03/06/09 BASE
06/11/09 67TD 0939.04 [63]
10/21/09 91TD 1101.36 [90]
01/19/10 59TD 1150.45 [63]
04/26/10 66TD 1219.80 [63]
08/09/10 73TD 1129.24 [72]

1129.24 Aug 9
1128.75 Aug 4
1127.30 Aug 2

Low
03/06/09 BASE
07/08/09 85TD 0869.32 [81]
11/02/09 82TD 1019.95 [81]
02/05/10 64TD 1044.50 [63]
07/01/10 101D 1010.91 [99]
??/??/?? Next secondary low dates : 09/17-09/30-10/13-10/26 (54, 63,72, 81)

1040.88 Aug 31
1039.70 Aug 27
1039.83 Aug 25

- The sequence number 54 did not show up in the last four samples, so 63, 72, and 81 has better odds.
- Each year in average has 251 trading days.
- 17/15/14 calendar weeks equals 82/72/67 trading days.

reference info

[i] Eric Hadik
- A 14-15 weeks cycle remains in control
chart: http://www.insiidetr...y15DJIAChrt.jpg
free info in PDF: http://www.insiidetr...10CyclePeak.pdf
web site: http://www.insiidetrack.com/

[ii] Andre Gratian, Sun, Aug 29, 2010
- The 17-wk cycle has been very dominant in the past couple of years, is also due to make its low in October.
full text & charts http://www.safehaven.../turning-points

( b ) Long PI date & 108 trading day cycle

108 trading days from 04/26 (index 1219.80) is 09/28
Use 04/26 as the reference date, the next long PI date also maps to 09/28. (prior post reported 09/20 was an error).

[2] Longer term

( a ) “The wave structure since March’s low (09) looks bullish.” Sep 7 2009, 04:46 PM, Post # 1

( b ) “So far the pullback from 1219 (04/26) is considered a correction of a longer term bullish wave structure, with an unrealized middle term target 944-948.” Jul 11 2010, 07:38 PM, post # 21

( c ) “Be aware the Bradley Siderograph unique signature in 2011, one year before the long awaited storm zone 2012-2014”
chart: http://indexcalls.co...44408_thumb.jpg (Aug 29 2010, 10:31 PM, post # 235).
If the above chart is too small to read, Then, use Bradley Siderograph 2011 http://www.robertew....dley/br2011.jpg

Viewers may go over the Bradley Siderograph for the next 8 years and find out why 2011’s is unique.
2010
2011 2012 2013 2014
2015 2016 2017 2018

( d ) reference info

Last Bull Standing 2011 - Cliff Droke, July 16, 2010
An excerpt: "The potential for a mini cyclical recovery bull market in 2011, and a once-in-a-century three year period of historic change, turmoil and dislocations to begin in 2012 and persist until 2014."
Full text

[stanley]

Crafting the rhythms series – 09/14/2010 Archive ------------------------------------------------ Jul 8 2010, 11:44 AM post # 20 The critical pivots to gauge the direction is 1096 [up] and 1042 [down]. Aug 14 2010, 10:55 PM post # 32 - 1137 is an unrealized target. Aug 17 2010, 09:01 AM post # 33 Polarity is always a puzzle, but, it can be perceived 1-2 weeks before the target date. Sep 4 2010, 11:22 AM post #34 Next secondary low dates : 09/17-09/30-10/13-10/26 (54, 63,72, 81) The sequence number 54 did not show up in the last four samples, so 63, 72, and 81 has better odds. --------------------------------------------------- On 09/03, by using the “Gap Up technology”, index surmounted & closed above the 1096 gauge. Trend is at upswing. At this writing, the 50 SMA is around 1089 & ascending. On the next pullback, 1096-1090 will be the test zone again. On the high rail, 1137 is an unrealized target, one step higher is 1158/1159. Recent Highs & Dates 1131.23 Jun 21 1127.30 Aug 2 1128.75 Aug 4 1129.24 Aug 9 1127.36 Sep 14 High 03/06/09 BASE 06/11/09 67TD 0939.04 [63] 10/21/09 91TD 1101.36 [90] 01/19/10 59TD 1150.45 [63] 04/26/10 66TD 1219.80 [63] 09/14/10 98TD 1127.36 [in the window, 99=09/15, 101=09/17] In prior post I ruled out 09/17 as the possible secondary Low date. Now, let me view it the other way. When is the possible secondary high date? Based on the sequence, 99 maps to 09/15, 101 maps to 09/17, and 117 maps to 10/11 (odds?); So, a better picture would be granted within a few trading days; The next possible secondary low dates : 09/30-10/13-10/26 (63,72, 81).

[stanley]

Crafting the rhythms series 07/18/10

This outlook focuses on cursory view.

Refer to the archive [1], the second time zone ended on 09/17. The projected 1137, [2], is still an unrealized target. I may get a better idea around 10/13. So far I have 09/17, 09/28-09/30, 10/13, 10/26 as possible target dates. The polarity can be speculated with better odds 1 week ahead of a specific date. Large time frame projection has relative large +/-, whether 09/17 is a significant date requires confirmation.

To give a rough range in low rail, assume the down force can crack the support zone 976-987, then the swing can be some where from 881 to 943. Where 881 = [0.236|666.79:1576.09], regular retracements for frame [1219:667] are 1008 & 943, and a down wave projection can reach 923. This range is not lower enough to draw a conclusion that the rally since March Low, 09 is terminated, [3]. The confirmation guage is pretty tough for bears, thus, 785.13 = [0.786|1,219.80: 666.79] (Jun 6 2010, 10:30 AM)


May 25 2010, 11:31 AM
1K is a major support. 1045 is a pivot


Sep 17 2010, 10:11 PM


Critical Time zone in September/October, Unique Siderograph in 2011


This paragraph contains Bullish view

[A] Last Bull Standing 2011 - Cliff Droke, July 16, 2010
Last Bull Standing 2011 - Cliff Droke, July 16, 2010
An excerpt: "The potential for a mini cyclical recovery bull market in 2011, and a once-in-a-century three year period of historic change, turmoil and dislocations to begin in 2012 and persist until 2014."
link

[B] Alan M. Newman's Stock Market CROSSCURRENTS
Excerpts from our September 13th issue
“Looking Far Ahead Although we still expect considerable downside potential into an October low for equities, we have maintained the odds for a new secular bull market are growing as the lost decade for stocks comes to an end. To be more precise, although we are unwilling to commit 100% to the bull thesis after our downside targets are met, we do believe stocks will rebound quite nicely and rally strongly in 2011. Our caveat is the next secular bull market for stocks will in no way resemble the last secular bull market for stocks and beyond 2011, progress for years to come is likely to be dull, uninspiring, boring and plodding.”
link

Archive
----------------------------------------------------------------
[1] May 6 2010, 01:41 PM
link
As stated on 02/06, I divide the speculation scope into two time zones. The first zone is from 01/18 to 04/26. The second zone is from 07/23 to 09/17. .... I put the index movement in the first time zone as a correction category, the level to be observed are 1010-1001 and 951-965; the correction becomes a more serious decline if Index dives below 951, thus the scope of the second time zone

[2] Jul 23 2010, 05:26 PM
link
For bullish scenario: To see 1140-1144, the resistance zone 1105.48 -1108.24 is the first hurdle needs to be removed. The target projection encounters some uncertainty because the waves with different time frame overlaps in the zone 1137-1159.
By surmounting (closing above) the gauge 1096 , this action is a caveat for

[3] Aug 10 2010, 09:50 PM
link
So far the pullback from 1219 (04/26) is considered a correction of a longer term bullish wave structure, with an unrealized middle term second target 944-948. The first target (around 1008) had been met on 07/01 (1010.91).

[stanley]

IMHO, from this past 4 months' movements, the index is clearly framed by 1219 (April 10) & 869 (July 09). The mean value is 1045. Upper rail 1153, lower rail 936.
It is about time the index slips into the lower box. Numbers in the chart serves as a guide, one may do fine tuning for a better resolution.

[stanley]

Session 09/23/10, Intraday low 1123.46 @ this writing.

To show early weakness, index will need to dive below 1117. There is a congested zone 1123.17 [0.236|1148.59:1040.88] serves as the first road block to the downside. upper resistance 1153, 1158/1159

FIB support 1121
May 25 2010, 11:31 AM


gauge 1117
Sep 21 2010, 12:51 PM


in reference of Local frame [1148.59:1040.88]
200 SMA @ 1116.81 as of 09/23
Sep 23 2010, 08:01 AM

[stanley]

Crafting the rhythms series 09/25/10



Around September 28 – 30 is a check zone for a trend reversal. The 108TD ( trading day) cycle, Long Multiple PI, and King Wen’s Sequence overlaps in this time zone. Since each method has a +/-, October 13 will be the cutoff date; In case an indecisive outcome extends into middle October, there is another check zone around 10/26-10/28.
The wave since March 2009 looks bullish. So far, there is no sign of weakness. The pullback since April 2010 is considered as a correction. In other words, the significance of July’s Low needs to be confirmed. The bounce off 1040 provides some sort of confirmation, a few key time zones can be found in this cart.
[from older comments] ... To give a rough range in the low rail, assume the down force can crack the support zone 976-987, then the swing can be some where from 881 to 943. Where 881 = [0.236|667:1576], regular retracements for frame [1219:667] are 1008 & 943, and a down wave projection can reach 923. This range is not lower enough to draw a conclusion that the rally since March Low, 09 is terminated. The confirmation guage is pretty tough for bears, thus, 785= [0.786|1220: 667]. The upper rial can be found in this chart, near term ranges in this chart

[stanley]

Crafting the rhythms series 10/02/10

First released in Indexcalls.com on Oct 2 2010, 10:18 PM

Overall comments:
Time window is going to close in the next few weeks for bearish scenario.
1175 is the pivot for higher numbers, it is a mean value between 1121/1229 in this chart

Archives
Crafting the rhythms
-------------------------------------------------------------
Jun 27 2010, 06:27 PM
Second half may be full of surprises & volatilities.

comments: Index bounced off 1040 was a big surprise. According to the commentary, Stocks have their best September performance in 70 years.

Jul 31, 10:57 PM


comments: both upper box 1137-1159, lower box 1035-1066 has been met.


Sep 4 2010, 11:22 AM
As long as index stays above 1096, it dismisses near term bearish calls.
Target zone 1000-1013, 968 – 987. The middle term target is 944-948

Sep 23 2010, 08:05 AM
To show early weakness, index will need to dive below 1117. There is a congested zone 1123.17 [0.236|1148.59:1040.88] serves as the first road block to the downside. upper resistance 1153, 1158/1159

Sep 25 2010, 02:30 PM
Around September 28 – 30 is a check zone for a trend reversal.
In case an indecisive outcome extends into middle October, there is another check zone around 10/26-10/28.
The pullback since April 2010 is considered as a correction. In other words, the significance of July’s Low needs to be confirmed. The bounce off 1040 provides some sort of confirmation.
-------------------------------------------------------------

Fibonacci retracements

1137, 1158/1159 1175 has been addressed a few months ago,
Here is the reconciliation based on the latest observed data
0.3, 0.4, sqrt(3)/3 and 0.707 are observed time/retracement ratio, provides good hint for wave & retracement in terms of time. I found these numbers tie with secondary events, come and go, hard to capture beforehand.

frame: 1219.80—1010.91
0.300 1157.13 [1.5/5=0.3, observed ratio 0.304] [09/30 observed 1157.17]
0.707 1158.60
0.786 1175.10

frame: 1219.80—666.79
0.300 1176.81 (1219.80-666.79) * 0.3 + 1010.91 [0.3 = 1.5/5, observed ratio 0.304]

Lower range Zig-Zag speculations
1112-1101
1093-1084
1073-1066
1060-1053
1046-1042

depends on the descending speed to probe even lower range
1000-1013, 968 – 987. 944-948

waves

666.79-->956.23-->869.32-->1158.53 [1.0]--->1227.06[1.236]-->1269.33[1.382].
968-987, 923

Time Table

The High observed on 09/30 requires confirmation [ < 1117, 10/13]