34 replies to this topic

[thespookyone]

I think within 3 trading days, you are correct. I've had my sell signals ratcheted up here, as well. Thanks for the post! And hang around a while, my friend.

[tommyt]

the Mc Osc is getting oversold, the summation looks horrible, which is the trend. Fib where are you? Did you go into hiding knowing the summation was gonna drop?

#1

[Mr Dev]

....of Momentum ...Crash type selling to come.

It usually takes time for such and indicator to pass thru the Momentum TOP buying into the bearish region and then into the momentum Selling Bottom region.

Well here we are just entering the area and fast ....so I expect some kind of MASSIVE DOWNWARD MOVE

Be (very) careful if you have ANY LONGS that dont' need a 20% LOSS !! ! ! ! !



SO TRADE SHORT or SELL .

Can you elaborate just a bit , what kinda time frame ,days, weeks . Any extra info is appreciated, Thxs

Well the indicator is set up to tell me when the risk to go long ..or short is the lowest. It oscillates like an S wave with a mid line setting the tone for the trend.
At the top and bottoms of the wave is a line that expresses MOMENTUM. Going long or short in these areas is the safest way to make the fastest money.

This Oscillator was talked about as we moved to recent highs, as predicting some kind of top,..however 10-15% of the time the oscillator returns into the momentum area for a Dble Top or Bottom finishing whatever was the move.

Remember it also has a mid-line to transition thru so you can see the trend.. and actually stays in this territory most of the time either above or below the line.

Recently it crossed quickly from Momentum Bullish thru trend into bearish trend territory... and as of today into MOMENTUM Bearish territory. Seeing how we have not really come off the top
in price that much ...there could be ....should be...probably will be....somekind of NEGATIVE PRICE action...beyond the NORMAL RANGE.

The good news if you are going to hold a BULLISH POSITION IS....this move could lead to some sort of MOMENTUM LOW for the markets to either stabilize at, or reverse.

The bad news is,...it's going to be painful for ,...well as long as bottoms and tops take,...which normally if dramatic are about a week or two.

This oscillator is CPC based...but it doesn't move to new highs or lows it just signals momentum as the chart move sideways like an S wave for the most part.

It is predictive and leads the markets,..it was MOMO topping weeks ago and dble topped last week.

Now we'll see it do the same going the other way.

Best To ALL

Edited by Mr Dev, 05 May 2010 - 04:41 PM.

[Mr Dev]

Define crash, Dev. A quick one day shot down to SPX 1120? A one week slide to SPX 1040? A sudden dramatic no-bid day to 875?

Good question ...
So this is my ...explanation of a crash..

Opposite of melt up ...so melt down. But we all know that we usually ...drop faster than we rise.

So price movement beyond the normal range within a very short period of time.......to the tune of 15-25%

thanks for asking.

PS
I really really really really really really really really really didn't want to use the word,.BUT I had to express what the chart was saying !

Edited by Mr Dev, 05 May 2010 - 04:47 PM.

[Mr Dev]

Why does the post say it has been edited by RD, when it's Mr. Dev's post???

I think,... I posted __-ing and he must of though it was related to a 4 letter word.

But the context remains the same.

There's no harm done

Edited by OEXCHAOS, 06 May 2010 - 11:06 AM.
didn't want the same sin repeated twice. :) Thanks

[Echo]

I really really really really really really really really really didn't want to use the word,.BUT I had to express what the chart was saying !

Yeah, now you know that it will take at least 3 posters to scream about a meltup to unjinx it Dev.

Now looking at the NYSI and the NYAD line, it is not supportive of a crash in the least bit, in fact the NYAD and NAUD are signaling that any further drop will all likely come back unless we do see a fundamental new event like cascading defaults in europe, etc. In fact, NYMO closed right at the UTL from the Nov lows and is now deeply oversold so we shouldn't be surprised by a reflex rally tomor or Friday at the latest.
Being an 80wk Hurst low, we could easily see scary drops in the next couple of weeks, but nothing I have suggests 15-25% drops here in a short period of time unless we get get that fundamental shock and I don't think the technicals can predict that at this point.

Doc

Edited by Echo, 05 May 2010 - 05:43 PM.

[mogreen]

Dev....If things did get out of hand on the downside $RUT is a massive buy @650 area! That is a 2008 zone of double tops 760 and bottoms at 650 area. However, for now this is one of the strongest indexes and while most other indices are below their 50e and 50simple the RUT didn't even touch them today@692. The INDU hit its 10 week and closed above it also. The McCL Oscillator is very oversold -233 with 17%NDX and 25%SPX stocks above their 20e. I use the $NYA as my guide and it was one of the first to roll over and trade below its 20 and 50e, keeping me on the right side of the mkt. Right now their is a rising bottom that comes in at the 200e @7053 which is another 200pts lower. I think thats the worst case. Butttt if things get out of hand there is a hard bottom @6750. I've been in the business long enough to know that anything can and will happen. I think we're going to have big Up days to get people long and then big down days.. possibly to these lower levels. You are one of the few people on this board who provides me value and incite. Keep up the good work! Best trading, Mo p.s. You show up on the major turns and don't try to call the everyday moves...nobody can! Thats why i respect you.

[mogreen]

I really really really really really really really really really didn't want to use the word,.BUT I had to express what the chart was saying !

Yeah, now you know that it will take at least 3 posters to scream about a meltup to unjinx it Dev.

Now looking at the NYSI and the NYAD line, it is not supportive of a crash in the least bit, in fact the NYAD and NAUD are signaling that any further drop will all likely come back unless we do see a fundamental new event like cascading defaults in europe, etc. In fact, NYMO closed right at the UTL from the Nov lows and is now deeply oversold so we shouldn't be surprised by a reflex rally tomor or Friday at the latest.
Being an 80wk Hurst low, we could easily see scary drops in the next couple of weeks, but nothing I have suggests 15-25% drops here in a short period of time unless we get get that fundamental shock and I don't think the technicals can predict that at this point.

Doc

Excellent post ECHO...I concur. Thanks.

[tradesurfer]

the Mc Osc is getting oversold, the summation looks horrible, which is the trend. Fib where are you? Did you go into hiding knowing the summation was gonna drop?

#1

I agree with you the summation index looks HORRIBLE

[tradesurfer]

it all seems to depend on the jobs report and what the market does tomorrow. if the market gets big downside tomorrow, then there is IMO very good chance that the jobs report will result in a big upside bounce. however, if tomorrow is slightly up or flat, then jobs report could lead to a big down day and follow through down into monday