34 replies to this topic

[Mr Dev]

I really really really really really really really really really didn't want to use the word,.BUT I had to express what the chart was saying !

Yeah, now you know that it will take at least 3 posters to scream about a meltup to unjinx it Dev.

Now looking at the NYSI and the NYAD line, it is not supportive of a crash in the least bit, in fact the NYAD and NAUD are signaling that any further drop will all likely come back unless we do see a fundamental new event like cascading defaults in europe, etc. In fact, NYMO closed right at the UTL from the Nov lows and is now deeply oversold so we shouldn't be surprised by a reflex rally tomor or Friday at the latest.
Being an 80wk Hurst low, we could easily see scary drops in the next couple of weeks, but nothing I have suggests 15-25% drops here in a short period of time unless we get get that fundamental shock and I don't think the technicals can predict that at this point.

Doc

boy you know we gotta balance how those jinx and unjinx work.

i just wanted to share that the MOMO sig was showing her beautiful...or ugly face was all. The other indicators have shown a tendency to cross a line a key points,. but they really don't come close to telling us
anything about when MOMO is about to start or end.

best trades to yas

Edited by Mr Dev, 05 May 2010 - 08:03 PM.

[Mr Dev]

Dev....If things did get out of hand on the downside $RUT is a massive buy @650 area! That is a 2008 zone of double tops 760 and bottoms at 650 area. However, for now this is one of the strongest indexes and while most other indices are below their 50e and 50simple the RUT didn't even touch them today@692. The INDU hit its 10 week and closed above it also.

The McCL Oscillator is very oversold -233 with 17%NDX and 25%SPX stocks above their 20e.

I use the $NYA as my guide and it was one of the first to roll over and trade below its 20 and 50e, keeping me on the right side of the mkt. Right now their is a rising bottom that comes in at the 200e @7053 which is another 200pts lower. I think thats the worst case. Butttt if things get out of hand there is a hard bottom @6750.

I've been in the business long enough to know that anything can and will happen.
I think we're going to have big Up days to get people long and then big down days.. possibly to these lower levels.

You are one of the few people on this board who provides me value and incite. Keep up the good work!
Best trading,
Mo

p.s. You show up on the major turns and don't try to call the everyday moves...nobody can! Thats why i respect you.

Well Thanks for your Kindness..
first your target question is interesting because of the 2 measured moves I have,..and anyone could of seen days ago are,....695...which I posted and we close just off of today, and about 40- 50 poiints lower @ 645. NOW ya gotta know by now how much I think target practice while playing the markets can get me and others into trouble.
SO I'm just gonna ride it down until we chop around and wait for a buy SIGNAL on this particular chart as it will exit momentum territory to help warn us of a possible reversal day possibly on its way. Then we'll take dip into the long trades.. when things look better. But we won't forget those spikes you speak of like that of the NASDAQ/NDX during its decline in 2001 & 2002

trade safe

Edited by Mr Dev, 05 May 2010 - 08:15 PM.

[nimblebear]

According to McHugh, the downside would have been over 500 points on the Dow, yesterday, had not the PPT stepped in and bought about 50% of the market. They've obviously been stepping in on Mondays for the better part of the past year and on down days as volume has been way down as the market has climbed, and volatility has been extremely low up until the past couple weeks. So I guess now they'll be trying to prop this puppy double fisted, until the market tries to find some sort of FAUX support level.

[IYB]

I really really really really really really really really really didn't want to use the word,.BUT I had to express what the chart was saying !

Yeah, now you know that it will take at least 3 posters to scream about a meltup to unjinx it Dev.

Now looking at the NYSI and the NYAD line, it is not supportive of a crash in the least bit, in fact the NYAD and NAUD are signaling that any further drop will all likely come back unless we do see a fundamental new event like cascading defaults in europe, etc. In fact, NYMO closed right at the UTL from the Nov lows and is now deeply oversold so we shouldn't be surprised by a reflex rally tomor or Friday at the latest.
Being an 80wk Hurst low, we could easily see scary drops in the next couple of weeks, but nothing I have suggests 15-25% drops here in a short period of time unless we get get that fundamental shock and I don't think the technicals can predict that at this point.

Doc

Perfect summary of the current market condition Doc! I don't think I could add or subtract a word that would improve it.

[Echo]

Thanks D.

[Echo]

....of Momentum ...Crash type selling to come.

It usually takes time for such and indicator to pass thru the Momentum TOP buying into the bearish region and then into the momentum Selling Bottom region.

Well here we are just entering the area and fast ....so I expect some kind of MASSIVE DOWNWARD MOVE

Be (very) careful if you have ANY LONGS that dont' need a 20% LOSS !! ! ! ! !



SO TRADE SHORT or SELL .

Can you elaborate just a bit , what kinda time frame ,days, weeks . Any extra info is appreciated, Thxs

Well the indicator is set up to tell me when the risk to go long ..or short is the lowest. It oscillates like an S wave with a mid line setting the tone for the trend.
At the top and bottoms of the wave is a line that expresses MOMENTUM. Going long or short in these areas is the safest way to make the fastest money.

This Oscillator was talked about as we moved to recent highs, as predicting some kind of top,..however 10-15% of the time the oscillator returns into the momentum area for a Dble Top or Bottom finishing whatever was the move.

Remember it also has a mid-line to transition thru so you can see the trend.. and actually stays in this territory most of the time either above or below the line.

Recently it crossed quickly from Momentum Bullish thru trend into bearish trend territory... and as of today into MOMENTUM Bearish territory. Seeing how we have not really come off the top
in price that much ...there could be ....should be...probably will be....somekind of NEGATIVE PRICE action...beyond the NORMAL RANGE.

The good news if you are going to hold a BULLISH POSITION IS....this move could lead to some sort of MOMENTUM LOW for the markets to either stabilize at, or reverse.

The bad news is,...it's going to be painful for ,...well as long as bottoms and tops take,...which normally if dramatic are about a week or two.

This oscillator is CPC based...but it doesn't move to new highs or lows it just signals momentum as the chart move sideways like an S wave for the most part.

It is predictive and leads the markets,..it was MOMO topping weeks ago and dble topped last week.

Now we'll see it do the same going the other way.

Best To ALL

Well Dev, now you've got my interest. You've got an oscillator based on CPC that is predictive and leads the market. You've said it was a pretty picture and you know a picture is worth a thousand words. Would you kindly post a chart so we could see it in real time? You could keep the settings hidden if you feel this is not for sharing at large, but I'd just like to see how it behaves. My guess is that it didn't work in calling a top the first time recently as this has been a very strong bull market surge where most top calling signals have been tossed into the bear heap pile as a friend of mine puts it. It took the double top in your indicator to finally start a downturn. Now if we are still showing a lot of internal market strength, it stands to reason that we could get a buy signal on the first try in the next few weeks, rather than a double buy bottom on your indicator. Just musing. Care to share a pic?

Doc

[pdx5]

FWIW S&P Futures are up tonight. So the crash is postponed at least for 10-15 minutes into the opening.

Edited by pdx5, 05 May 2010 - 11:03 PM.

[thespookyone]

I'd make the observation here that news can trump ALL, and has many times in the past. I'm not a fundamental trader, but not blind either. When the news came out that BS was rolling over, or 911 happened=I'd challenge the thought that any indicator-internals included could predict a 700 point drop and a 500 point snapback in a heartbeat. Europe is currency unstable here, and anything can happen here in my book. Also, for what I think is a first for me-it only took about a 175 points of drop the other day to inspire what, in my view was clearly panic selling. Is there an underlying psycholgy afoot that is built on folks not having to worry about a drop for a year? Does it give them weaker hands when one comes? That type of selling feeds on itself-and once turned loose-I've seen it magnify-fast. Doc alluded to fundamental shock-I believe we are in a situation where it is more likely than ever-just a thought. Internals wise, I agree.....so far.

Edited by thespookyone, 05 May 2010 - 11:52 PM.

[pdx5]

I'd make the observation here that news can trump ALL, and has many times in the past. I'm not a fundamental trader, but not blind either. When the news came out that BS was rolling over, or 911 happened=I'd challenge the thought that any indicator-internals included could predict a 700 point drop and a 500 point snapback in a heartbeat. Europe is currency unstable here, and anything can happen here in my book. Also, for what I think is a first for me-it only took about a 175 points of drop the other day to inspire what, in my view was clearly panic selling. Is there an underlying psycholgy afoot that is built on folks not having to worry about a drop for a year? Does it give them weaker hands when one comes? That type of selling feeds on itself-and once turned loose-I've seen it magnify-fast. Doc alluded to fundamental shock-I believe we are in a situation where it is more likely than ever-just a thought. Internals wise, I agree.....so far.

The market is overdue for a correction. It had gone from SPX 666 to 1250 in 14 months. That is one
heckuva strong bull market. The bull has to be exhausted and overdue for a breather and a sinificant
correction. The Greek situation is just acting as the catalyst.

Edited by pdx5, 06 May 2010 - 12:20 AM.

[NAV]

Uh-oh ! The "C" word. The bear killer !. The bottom is in