37 replies to this topic

[NAV]

I said this. I told ya so. I predicted this. Yes, congrats to all who said, told and predicted. That's past. The funny thing is this is a bull market and nobody tries to predict the bottoms which they should. But everyone tries to nail the top of the bull market. There were at least 50+ top calls in this mini rally from Feb 10 on traders-talk alone. There were hardly any posts which called for a bottom in February. Most called for a countertrend rally to SPX 1090 or SPX 1120. The situation is similar now. Most are expecting another low. I gather there are many technicians on this board who can predict the markets from what i read. If so, here's a simple question. Will SPX make a new recovery high before taking out last week's crash low ? I need a unequivocal yes or no. You may provide the reasons, which would be a added bonus.

[selecto]

no

[Rogerdodger]

Niet, Nein, No.

[SemiBizz]

Not before, crash is just getting warmed up. Monday can be up though. Government Mondays... They had 2 days of computation time to figure out a solution. We're in the middle of a full-blown liquidity crisis. You do not lose 14 handles on the EUR/YEN in a week. That is a crash! I think they will probably end up just like the oil spill though Having their programs clogged up by unexpected frozen methane.

[Rogerdodger]

Monday can be up though.
Government Mondays...

EU Races to Ready Emergency Fund, Fight Off 'Wolfpack' Before Asia Opens...

[selecto]

I post this simple little weekly study from time to time;
looks like its time to do so again. Note that we got the
signal following a price shock.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=2&dy=0&i=p20047759396&a=199848247&r=4903.png

[redfoliage2]

I expected a 10% correction before this sharp down and I think it has been accomplished.

Edited by redfoliage2, 09 May 2010 - 01:08 PM.

[zoropb]

No Nothing in my charts says bottom yet from daily to higher. A relief rally to 1143+- sure could happen but by the same token oversold can become very oversold as easy as it has many times in the past. The only sure thing one can extrapolate from the charts right now is the markets are going to be moving fast both ways for the short term and if someone does not have intra-day skills your going to be whipsawed out of positions. For me this is still a cyclical bull not a primary until the 2009 low is tested.

[NAV]

I expected a 10% correction before this sharp down and I think it has been accomplished.

Yes or no ?

[andr99]

I said this. I told ya so. I predicted this. Yes, congrats to all who said, told and predicted. That's past.

The funny thing is this is a bull market and nobody tries to predict the bottoms which they should. But everyone tries to nail the top of the bull market. There were at least 50+ top calls in this mini rally from Feb 10 on traders-talk alone. There were hardly any posts which called for a bottom in February. Most called for a countertrend rally to SPX 1090 or SPX 1120. The situation is similar now. Most are expecting another low. I gather there are many technicians on this board who can predict the markets from what i read. If so, here's a simple question.

Will SPX make a new recovery high before taking out last week's crash low ?

I need a unequivocal yes or no. You may provide the reasons, which would be a added bonus.

End of April was the TOP of the countertrend rally since 2009. It could have been January but it wasn' t. In February I had two possibilities 1) a bounce from February low to slightly below January high 2) a rebound going slightly above the January high. I was wrong because the rebound went much higher than the high of January. It was anyway the last bullish fraud as it is now being demonstrated.