37 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

I expected a 10% correction before this sharp down and I think it has been accomplished.

Yes or no ?

Yes.

[Rocketman]

Will SPX make a new recovery high before taking out last week's crash low ?

I need a unequivocal yes or no. You may provide the reasons, which would be a added bonus.

Yes, as long as 2/5/10 Lows Holds, we should see new Highs.

I also have some solid research suggesting that the 5/6 Lows should hold or at the most see a retest on 5/11, then a sharp rally into OE week.

[InvestingFreak]

hard to say. at this point I would expect a bounce. if we take out the highs then i say NO we won't and we'll go further down. nothing is right in the world. Oil spilling, volcano spewing, portugal greece spain italy etc taking down europe. SEC and Nasdaq artificially doing whatever they please with stock market trades in the States. What could really propel it above 1200 again? so again No

[TradingUp]

No. Since mid-2006 the markets have become trending again. They go up, they top, they go down, they botoom, they go up again. Well, they have topped, in my opinion, so now they go down again (not, perhaps, in a straight line) but once they give "the signal", they do their thing. Any talk of new highs is, in my opinion, wishful thinking on the part of those who would so dearly love to get short at higher prices.

[Remo]

I said this. I told ya so. I predicted this. Yes, congrats to all who said, told and predicted. That's past.

The funny thing is this is a bull market and nobody tries to predict the bottoms which they should. But everyone tries to nail the top of the bull market. There were at least 50+ top calls in this mini rally from Feb 10 on traders-talk alone. There were hardly any posts which called for a bottom in February. Most called for a countertrend rally to SPX 1090 or SPX 1120. The situation is similar now. Most are expecting another low. I gather there are many technicians on this board who can predict the markets from what i read. If so, here's a simple question.

Will SPX make a new recovery high before taking out last week's crash low ?

I need a unequivocal yes or no. You may provide the reasons, which would be a added bonus.

No. SPX won't take out last week's low. Maybe retest it but not break it.

Watch for 10:1 day to know when the correction is over in terms of time. In terms of price, the lowpoint was reached last Thursday.

This is a primary bull market and this is a normal correction. Nothing more. Just like the "coming hyper-inflation" correction of 2006 when everyone "knew" the bull market was over.

Edited by Remo, 09 May 2010 - 03:13 PM.

[espresso]

No. should be only a secondary high, maybe a right shoulder, then big decline into July, then time to go long?

[IYB]

No.

That being said, I will note that the answer to the question is pure speculation and essentially unimportant to me. ALL that is important to me is the LOLR, and that is currently down. In fact the NYMO says we have the "peddle to the medal" in downward direction currently (counter trend spikes notwithstanding), so it's WAY WAY WAY too early to even start speculating about bottoms or new highs at this point.

Yes, it's a Primary Bull Market, but it's an IT decline and experience has taught me that IT declines can go much deeper and longer than most expect, even in a bull market context.

Regards, D

[relax]

EUR/USD is up big, should support a gap up and there is nothing a weak trend likes better than a gap up, as it gives the trend a "freebie", in this case something to sell into a bold call would be 2 per cent up tomorrow and then down by at least 3 per cent after noon and then ..well i'm neither a forecaster nor an artist, i'm just a monkey trying to improve his skills at reacting ;-) any calls for tomorrow? come on guys - this will make you famous for one day - and maybe cnbc will invite you on a show

Edited by relax, 09 May 2010 - 03:21 PM.

[StenoDude]

The low on May 6th will be taken out before the high on April 26th. The correction is not over yet. As just one example, Disney made a fresh 10 year high on May 3rd. This 3 day correction will in all likelyhood grow legs. Though I think the longest decline, with regards to time, is behind us.

[thespookyone]

Yes, and you are exposing me to a lot of catcalls and pain, my friend. Structure wise-I believe I'm looking at a completed ABC. Price wise, if indeed this is a "primary bull market", target has been reached. Although the internals look horrific, I saw them signal correction, not end, not crash right now. I believe much of the drop was news driven, the rest panic. Now that the "powers that be" have crucified the longs-they have an absolute layup on the shorts here-should they like money, or choose to do it. A squeeze of gigantic proportion is there for the taking. An easy fundamental case can be made here for the US market as the safest one to put money in. I see no evidence that liquidity has totally dried up in two weeks, after the spigot has been turned on full blast for over a year. Is this a market top? "almost". The bus travels lightest with the fewest passengers-show me the longs on the bus. Timing is everything, the crash can wait a couple weeks. Prechter has started beating his chest. I've been a bear all my life, and the only top I found easy to call was that of 2007, which I nailed within 5 minutes-to my students sheer delight. But to make a comparrison to that top, which I think is fair here-I feel the SPX needs a new high FIRST. I'm sure I should have gone with my first instinct here-and not answered at all-and if it wasn't you asking you can make bank I wouldn't have

Edited by thespookyone, 09 May 2010 - 04:42 PM.