37 replies to this topic

[uburack]

Will SPX make a new recovery high before taking out last week's crash low ?

I need a unequivocal yes or no. You may provide the reasons, which would be a added bonus.

I think yes.

By "take out" you mean substantially, not by 2 points for a fraction of a moment, or after hours, correct? imo we could retest this week.

This is how I think it will play out. EU comes up with a financial solution (ponzi plan US style), banks will rally SPX to 1230, maybe higher, before they hit the fan. Dow has already topped.

Edited by uburack, 09 May 2010 - 05:15 PM.

[thespookyone]

Hey NAV-It just occured to me, shouldn't you answer your own question after everyone has had a chance? And if you do-I need a unequivocal yes or no, lol.

[goldswinger]

I said this. I told ya so. I predicted this. Yes, congrats to all who said, told and predicted. That's past.

The funny thing is this is a bull market and nobody tries to predict the bottoms which they should. But everyone tries to nail the top of the bull market. There were at least 50+ top calls in this mini rally from Feb 10 on traders-talk alone. There were hardly any posts which called for a bottom in February. Most called for a countertrend rally to SPX 1090 or SPX 1120. The situation is similar now. Most are expecting another low. I gather there are many technicians on this board who can predict the markets from what i read. If so, here's a simple question.

Will SPX make a new recovery high before taking out last week's crash low ?

I need a unequivocal yes or no. You may provide the reasons, which would be a added bonus.

Nyet, NO, Pas do tout.

Pretty well markets are sporting monthly BARS signalling a change in trend to down. Wave counts from March 09 lows indicate at least 5 waves completed or a corrective ABCDE. Gold is topping soon. Fundamentals and stuff coming at us in the next 18 months ae beyond belief.

I expect a good bounce and that's it.


GS.

[cgnx]

I forgot the question. Anyway, this drop was to instill fear and it did. Folks either sold into it or are like deer in the headlights, frozen from decision. A solid gap and go will gain buyers at much higher levels. All those stopped out will have to pay up to get there shares back. What a shame. Thats the way the story goes. This process seems to be the best way to distribute shares. How high we go from here is difficult to predict. All I know is I own very few puts and am long calls, various stock holdings and miners. So basically long. Hedging is crucial. Not a time for heroics. I dumped most of my puts last week. Could we tank beyond the lows? Sure Could we hit new highs? Definitely I'm good either way.

[NAV]

Hey NAV-It just occured to me, shouldn't you answer your own question after everyone has had a chance? And if you do-I need a unequivocal yes or no, lol.

I have reached a conclusion by various studies over the years and observing the best minds in the industry that the future is not predictable. So it's just a fun guess and i would not take credit for it even if i turn out to be right.

My answer would be "Yes". The lows could be tested as a higher low, but we should not break it.

Reasons - Extreme MCO, Climactic volume and spike reversal, Extreme negative sentiment accompanied by bad negative news and a failure to break the swing pivot on the daily chart (Feb lows).

Thanks everyone for the fearless predictions.

P.S - Notwithstanding my predictions, i reserve the right go long or short

[vitaminm]

Will SPX make a new recovery high before taking out last week's crash low ? Yes.........if this intraday buy turns into daily buy, continues into weekly buy and projected SPX 1017 is not met. Spx...S@1088-85........1015...918 R@1175-80......1200....1216

[InvestingFreak]

unless we pass 1148 and 1166 without a problem in the futures then bottom is in.

[Rocketman]

"I have reached a conclusion by various studies over the years and observing the best minds in the industry that the future is not predictable. So it's just a fun guess and i would not take credit for it even if i turn out to be right."


I disagree. You are then assuming the markets are based on pure chaos and randomness and that is imho incorrect.

All markets, in fact everything in the Universe is Orderly (no Chaos) and are following "Natural Laws", ie Certain Rules, based on mathematical laws, which makes the future predictable. If we don't know to predict the future, then we just don't know what Natural Laws are ruling a certain situation, that's all.

You are one of the few i have seen that can actually make money consistant in the markets, simply because you follow certain trading rules, ie right there you are predicting the markets.

Before G-O-D was numbers.

Edited by Rocketman, 09 May 2010 - 11:43 PM.

[NAV]

I disagree. You are then assuming the markets are based on pure chaos and randomness and that is imho incorrect.

Absolutely not. I am the last one who would say markets are random. If that was the case, then i would not be trading at all. There is a order to the market and the order is called the trend. What is predictable and deterministic is the trend and what can be called probabilistically is the change in trend. But that's not predicting the future. Future cannot be predicted at all, by any methods.

[Rocketman]

Future cannot be predicted at all, by any methods.

I will agree to disagree, obviously you have never had an expert Jyotish reading ( I have) or you won't be talking like that.

That is fine too, someday you might see the light, if you're lucky. That is all I can say. Good Luck

Ian

Edited by Rocketman, 10 May 2010 - 12:11 AM.