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1229 gold breaks into the next cycle


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#71 JGUITARSLIM

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Posted 01 June 2010 - 11:19 AM

Piece from Bill Fleckenstein a buddy of mine just emailed me...


On the subject of gold, I would like to make a few points. It's really interesting to me that there is so much angst concerning gold, given that it has been the longest-surviving monetary asset by a factor of almost 100, versus the short lifespan of the average paper-currency regime.

It is also interesting that the lexicon is riddled with references to gold as being a very desirable asset to possess. People talk about such-and-such being "as good as gold" (never "as good as colored paper"); or they'll describe some great business as "a gold mine"; or, they'll talk about "the golden rule" as though it's an ironclad law. Yet, most people continue to treat gold like dirt, or worse.

Gold has been an asset that's helped protect and deliver gains vs. paper money for the last 10 years running, yet the popular press heaps nothing but scorn on it. Even people who own gold seem to suffer angst regularly, based on the questions I continually receive in Ask Fleck. Meanwhile, Bubblevision and other media outlets persist in telling you how great stocks are, although this asset class has cost people money for a decade
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The current level of skepticism is nicely illustrated by the recent short-interest surge in the GLD exchange-traded fund. It's now doubled, standing at about 30 million shares (around 3 million ounces). Meanwhile, when the gold market recently fell out of bed, ETF holders at the margin liquidated no ounces; and in the last couple days, they added a whopping 50 tons (a phenomenon occurring in other places around the planet as well). Thus, as a wise commodity-trading friend said many years ago, you can be with the trend and still contrary.

While I don't believe that gold is a totally contrary concept, it is contrary from the standpoint of there being so few avid believers though the list of high-quality investors who now hold gold has become quite impressive.

I keep waiting for the day when folks realize that if you invest in the shares of a gold mining company, you basically own a piece of "the money-creation machine." It's sort of like owning a central bank that isn't staffed by losers. In any case, at some point I expect to see the masses rabidly bullish about gold and gold mining companies, though obviously we're a long ways from there. Bill Fleckenstein

Edited by JGUITARSLIM, 01 June 2010 - 11:19 AM.


#72 dharma

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Posted 01 June 2010 - 01:42 PM

dougie- i may be playing it too close here
http://www.seasonalc...ssics_gold.html
however, 1229 is the magnet. today it was rebuffed
i will give it alittle more time and then i will come off margin and
cut back my position.
although, w/the speed the other #s fell , i dont want to be too quick to cut my exposure.
19th is ideally when the cycle tops.
dhamra

#73 dougie

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Posted 01 June 2010 - 02:23 PM

thanks Dharma!

#74 dharma

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Posted 01 June 2010 - 03:10 PM

cut my margin by 60% troublesome that we retraced a little more than 50% on the xau/hui dharma

#75 dharma

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Posted 02 June 2010 - 09:48 AM

make no mistake the markets are painted pictures, painted by the large $$ to get one to be corralled. frightened and confused one becomes prey. it should be fairly obvious to anyone paying attention, the problems are vast and countries are fighting for their economic future. gold will go alot higher. so, w/the trend as your guide. buy weakness and sell strength. anything else and you are prey. 1213 marks the end of a cycle and 1229 breaks into the next cycle, this is all background noise. my cycle tops on the 19th , it could be a little longer or shorter. until then i will wait, unless or until i am signaled otherwise. dharma

#76 johngeorge

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Posted 02 June 2010 - 12:09 PM

dharma Thanks for that update and continuing dialog on the case for the bull. :)
Peace
johngeorge

#77 dharma

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Posted 03 June 2010 - 09:52 AM

dharma

Thanks for that update and continuing dialog on the case for the bull. :)

jg- gold is in a bull market , i dont need to make a case for the bull. shorting bull markets is the way to the poor house. if ones timing is good/off sooner or later the bull will thrust.
patience here. the handle as in cup and handle is under construction.
same as yesterday
1213 support
all the rest is background noise
dharma

#78 inamosa

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Posted 04 June 2010 - 01:06 PM

$YG_F 240M: You can see what I consider to be the major base of support. A symmetrical triangle continuation or more classical handle is what I'm assuming is being formed right now.

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  • YG_240M.png

"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#79 dharma

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Posted 04 June 2010 - 01:43 PM

broke the 1213 yesterdays close 1198 support is now a pivot the miners behind the woodshed. holding steady dharma

#80 stocks

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Posted 04 June 2010 - 02:26 PM

Gold in Euro's chart
- a preview of gold in dollars when the dollar turns IT bearish later this year


http://stockcharts.c...ry.html?GLD:FXE
-- -
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change, 
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.