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If Nine to One Up/Down Volume is a Breadth Thrust


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#11 IYB

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Posted 10 June 2010 - 10:51 PM

So as to see it in perspective with markets preceeding and following the up thrust event...... today's 44 to 1 breadth thrust was the highest up/down volume in the last decade (maybe ever). Here are the 2nd and 3rd highest breadth thrust days of the last ten years, and the markets that followed.... {Notice that the March 6, 2007 up thrust followed the 1% up day (99% down day, IOW) of Feb 27 by 5 days - just like today following 1% up day (99% down day) of June 4 by 4 days....} {{PS- If you get four images, two of them are dupes and should be ignored. It's a glitch in TT program I can't figure out how to overcome}}

Edited by IYB, 10 June 2010 - 10:58 PM.

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#12 arbman

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Posted 10 June 2010 - 10:58 PM

Money ain't worth much anymore, eh? A trillion here, a trillion there... :lol:

Don, hard to expect the same analogy to Feb low working out to an even steeper uptrend... My perception is late November 2007, Feb 2008, October 2008 when similar events happened. Notice, the trin is actually skewed because Citibank's gigantic volume, the $NYADV:$NYDEC is actually less than last week's spikes. I find particularly November 2008 relevant since it was right after a bull market peak...

They really need to reverse split Citibank (ticker:C) 10:1 and have it trading similar to the other banks. The stock needs also institutional exposure and many are avoiding simply because it is below $5... This is just stupid now...

Edited by arbman, 10 June 2010 - 11:07 PM.


#13 goldswinger

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Posted 10 June 2010 - 11:03 PM

{Notice that the March 6, 2007 up thrust followed the 1% up day (99% down day, IOW) of Feb 27 by 5 days - just like today following 1% up day (99% down day) of June 4 by 4 days....} IYB, pls. also notice that marginal new lows followed a few days later......after March 6/07..................just like probably now as we still need that final impulse down to complete the proper wave pattern. Thx, for all that wealth of information. GS.

#14 Will

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Posted 10 June 2010 - 11:11 PM

....or FOUR (count 'em) TWENTY TO ONE or better up:down readings in a month? The word "stampede" comes to mind.....

Folks, there is a time to be cautious about being long the market. This just ain't one of 'em. Good Trading, D


I am not bearish but let me point out that these days have all come from sucessively lower levels. Not the way one would want them.

#15 IYB

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Posted 10 June 2010 - 11:14 PM

IYB, pls. also notice that marginal new lows followed a few days later......after March 6/07..................just like probably now as we still need that final impulse down to complete the proper wave pattern.

Indeed, GS. I'm very wary of that as well as the sharp decline that followed a few days later in March 2003, before, in both cases, it went a whole lot higher. The market always finds a way to make it tough/scary, doesn't it?? ;) Best to you, D
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#16 arbman

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Posted 10 June 2010 - 11:16 PM

Correction:

I find particularly November 2007 relevant since it was right after a bull market peak...


Don, for the 2007 analogy consider the location of the 200 dma. The Feb 2007 low did not even touch it, just like this January 2010's decline whereas we are testing the 200 dma from below now, just like in Nov 2007... Could this be the August 2007? Maybe, but the percentage change is actually more... Then you are right, we may see yet another high...

Probably though they will manage to spike it over 200 dma at least once. So, I tend to think a test of 1120 or thereabouts is likely, if they go nuts we can perhaps test the 1150 gap, perhaps they will :rolleyes: I don't think any of them will sustain the trend though, it will most likely quickly roll over...

I cannot believe they are having the people swallow the same "global growth from China" pill though in the financial news.

I will take the red pill that will flush me out of the matrix...

Edited by arbman, 10 June 2010 - 11:24 PM.


#17 NAV

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Posted 10 June 2010 - 11:17 PM

IYB, We are witnessing both upside and downside panics. We are seeing some mind boggling numbers like TRIN 13+, 44:1 up/down volume. I read on Tony Caldero's site about 1:119 weekly up/down volume. How about that for a monstrous down thrust ? :D We are witnessing things of scale that technicians have rarely seen in their careers. But as you said, when you hear the hoofbeats, think horses, not dogs. Is one more leg left ? Who knows ? Right now what matters is aligning with the uptrend on hourly and play it until it turns.

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#18 thespookyone

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Posted 10 June 2010 - 11:26 PM

Great charts IYB, but for myself-I question context. Can we rally from here,sure-did we bottom-fat chance, imho. Positive cross on the 5 and 10% index, sure-but from under the Zero line=with summation hoverring at -750. Speaking of summation, so far, you have a ledge=nothing more, imho. Show me the money with a fair gap North there, and let the MCO's take out their April highs-and I'll get more interested. Bit overbought on the sto on the MCO's to break hard North right here, also-don't ya think? That said, the relationship between the sto and the MCO here does imply a bit of positive divergence in a sense-and probably indicates a bit larger of a SNAPBACK rally than we've seen lately. Just thinking outloud-although I know thats now been made illegal ;) Hey, if I can't kick the internals around with one of the best-where is the fun? And yes, I admit-I DO combine fun and trading.

#19 NAV

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Posted 10 June 2010 - 11:30 PM

Correction:

I find particularly November 2007 relevant since it was right after a bull market peak...


Don, for the 2007 analogy consider the location of the 200 dma. The Feb 2007 low did not even touch it, just like this January 2010's decline whereas we are testing the 200 dma from below now, just like in Nov 2007... Could this be the August 2007? Maybe, but the percentage change is actually more... Then you are right, we may see yet another high...

Probably though they will manage to spike it over 200 dma at least once. So, I tend to think a test of 1120 or thereabouts is likely, if they go nuts we can perhaps test the 1150 gap, perhaps they will :rolleyes: I don't think any of them will sustain the trend though, it will most likely quickly roll over...

I cannot believe they are having the people swallow the same "global growth from China" pill though in the financial news.

I will take the red pill that will flush me out of the matrix...


Arb,

Yesterday you showed us a 3 STD deviation chart and said that we should not see a pop greater than 50 points, which should put the max limit to about 1090. Now with a one day rally, you have upped your targets to 1120 and possibly 1150. So it means that those statistical bands mean squat. That's what the legendary genius Richard Dennis mean't when he said "Don't ever put boundaries on the market" !

Edited by NAV, 10 June 2010 - 11:33 PM.

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#20 arbman

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Posted 10 June 2010 - 11:40 PM

You are absolutely right, NAV, good advice, it was naive of me to think how nutty the central bankers can get... :lol: I am still upset they did not even let a good flush down to 1030s, now we do not even have the short fuel. My guess is first we tag the 200 dma, pull back 2-3 days and then spike higher for 2-3 days and be done with this rally in about 2 weeks. I particularly think so because of the cyclical patterns, everything is always subject to change, but this is what makes the markets fun. I am just trying to envision the possibilities and have a trading plan. I am considering three gaps above, the 1100 problem, then 1120 and 1150 gaps. I think 200 dma will be tagged, so 1100 support will be most likely achieved for now and it will have to be digested, then we need a last spike before rolling over... I absolutely take this as a bear market rally for now and I still expect a crash into summer. In my calculations, even a rally up to 1150 does not stop the weekly charts from trending lower and it will only come back crashing down, but it will happen slower now that they injected massively...

Edited by arbman, 10 June 2010 - 11:42 PM.