28 replies to this topic

[Lee48]

Thanks, good stuff IYB and Roger. Looking at your monthy chart, this rally is already weaker than the 2004 pause and 100 point trading range. This one so far has a 200 point range. Caution on upside swings looks like the name of the game from here on out. And shorting added to our plan..

[DrSP]

This is not a pause and cannot be compared to 2004 or Feb. 2010.

[andiron]

i have seen many market watchers use 2 data points (66-82) & (29-mid 40s) and conclude secular bear market lasts ~15-20 yrs..all i say is sample is too small to conclude about the longevity....

[vitaminm]

One may include Interest rate in big picture.....as this rate went down market went up.Now think how far this rate can go down!.....Is their any room to cut rates?....Even Japanese market did not recover since 1989

Look at the rates in 1982....nearly 15%...........and current!

^TYX

http://finance.yahoo...ource=undefined

http://finance.yahoo...ource=undefined

http://www.wsjprimer...ate_history.htm

http://finance.yahoo...ource=undefined

http://www.cnn.com/v....spend.save.cnn

http://en.wikipedia....e_United_States




http://www.economagi...xe/bjap/ehdis01

Edited by vitaminm, 11 July 2010 - 09:30 PM.

[Iblayz]

Just a reminder about one thing that most who read this site regularly are aware of.....even though the "noise" can sometimes push that awareness away from "active status". In strong uptrends there are repeated failures of sell signals. In strong downtrends there are repeated failures of buy signals. It is my opinion that the market is on the cusp of entry into the recognition phase......where it becomes abundantly clear what the trend now is......and that recognition will not be pleasant for most because "most" make money when the market is trending upward. That could be delayed a bit if we go high enough on this move........and I don't think that happens. Of course, there is BS.....uh I mean GS.....who just a few days ago supposedly told clients not to panic....the market was undervalued on forward multiples......one would think that they would be working hard for higher prices....unless they are betting against them (higher prices) with their own money.......but they wouldn't do that....would they?.....that is, say one thing publicly and do something completely different with their own money?

[Rogerdodger]

That's a valid point. Then again no data points will predict the future.
But sometimes knowing what has happened shows what CAN happen, especially with some similar circumstances..

i have seen many market watchers use 2 data points (66-82) & (29-mid 40s) and conclude secular bear market lasts ~15-20 yrs..all i say is sample is too small to conclude about the longevity....

Edited by Rogerdodger, 11 July 2010 - 10:31 PM.

[NAV]

As i type, India's BSE is retesting it's April highs and could breakout above it, anytime here.

[porsche911sg]

As i type, India's BSE is retesting it's April highs and could breakout above it, anytime here.

Now you understand my theory long asia short US. their ecnomy is different state.

[Om_Namah_Shivay]

As i type, India's BSE is retesting it's April highs and could breakout above it, anytime here.

Now you understand my theory long asia short US. their ecnomy is different state.

But as I understand from this board the crawling (BSE-NSE) market is manipulated.

[NAV]

As i type, India's BSE is retesting it's April highs and could breakout above it, anytime here.

Now you understand my theory long asia short US. their ecnomy is different state.

But as I understand from this board the crawling (BSE-NSE) market is manipulated.

All markets in the world are manipulated ! - by the crowd . It's only in the U.S, it's beleived that it is manipulated by the PPT and the Fed (during uptrends only)

Edited by NAV, 12 July 2010 - 05:57 AM.