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We are forming a flat top formation on ES.


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#1 goldswinger

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Posted 14 July 2010 - 01:13 AM

"In a flat top formation if the number of bars of the flat top exceed the number of bars it took to get there from the previous swing base, get out!!!" Could not get the sample charts but the text below ilustartes what we now have on ES overnight. FIGURE 15.1 Flat surfaces at the top are illustrated. To determine, for an intraday trade, whether the stop of the move is final or not, we should take a look at short-term charts—starting from 5 minutes and up to 15 minutes bar charts. If your position is having a floating profit at the moment and the last extreme has a flat end (top or bottom), then it would be better to wait a bit longer before taking a profit. If the market stops for long and doesn't make a new high (or low) within the period of time equal to that which it took to commit the move, then the position had better be liquidated and profit fixed. This criterion is very simple to apply to real trading. All you need is to count a number of bars on 5-minute intraday charts. If the number of bars after the market formed its last extreme equals or exceeds the number of bars that formed the last wave, then it's time to get out. See Figure 15.2. FIGURE 15.2 The number of bars at high are 6. Number of bars after the market formed its last extreme is 4. Time to get out and take profit.

#2 porsche911sg

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Posted 14 July 2010 - 01:23 AM

"In a flat top formation if the number of bars of the flat top exceed the number of bars it took to get there from the previous swing base, get out!!!"

Could not get the sample charts but the text below ilustartes what we now have on ES overnight.


FIGURE 15.1 Flat surfaces at the top are illustrated.


To determine, for an intraday trade, whether the stop of the move is final or not, we should take a look at short-term charts—starting from 5 minutes and up to 15 minutes bar charts. If your position is having a floating profit at the moment and the last extreme has a flat end (top or bottom), then it would be better to wait a bit longer before taking a profit. If the market stops for long and doesn't make a new high (or low) within the period of time equal to that which it took to commit the move, then the position had better be liquidated and profit fixed. This criterion is very simple to apply to real trading. All you need is to count a number of bars on 5-minute intraday charts. If the number of bars after the market formed its last extreme equals or exceeds the number of bars that formed the last wave, then it's time to get out. See Figure 15.2.




FIGURE 15.2 The number of bars at high are 6. Number of bars after the market formed its last extreme is 4. Time to get out and take profit.

I closed my long on the GAP up on NQ.

Although I am a bit bullish but i am also fearing the top SP at the 50ma The line drawn from the top at 1210 with jun 21 intraday highs gives the top of the trend line at 1100.

It also forms a mini right shoulder if you look at the 29 jun as the left shoulder with right soulder being today..

Actually i think they could push a little more to 1125 or there about.

There is no flat top i can see like what happen from 15 to 20 june.
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!

#3 goldswinger

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Posted 14 July 2010 - 01:28 AM

"In a flat top formation if the number of bars of the flat top exceed the number of bars it took to get there from the previous swing base, get out!!!"

Could not get the sample charts but the text below ilustartes what we now have on ES overnight.


FIGURE 15.1 Flat surfaces at the top are illustrated.


To determine, for an intraday trade, whether the stop of the move is final or not, we should take a look at short-term charts—starting from 5 minutes and up to 15 minutes bar charts. If your position is having a floating profit at the moment and the last extreme has a flat end (top or bottom), then it would be better to wait a bit longer before taking a profit. If the market stops for long and doesn't make a new high (or low) within the period of time equal to that which it took to commit the move, then the position had better be liquidated and profit fixed. This criterion is very simple to apply to real trading. All you need is to count a number of bars on 5-minute intraday charts. If the number of bars after the market formed its last extreme equals or exceeds the number of bars that formed the last wave, then it's time to get out. See Figure 15.2.


Porsche, You have to look at the 15, 30 or 60 MIN charts.



FIGURE 15.2 The number of bars at high are 6. Number of bars after the market formed its last extreme is 4. Time to get out and take profit.

I closed my long on the GAP up on NQ.

Although I am a bit bullish but i am also fearing the top SP at the 50ma The line drawn from the top at 1210 with jun 21 intraday highs gives the top of the trend line at 1100.

It also forms a mini right shoulder if you look at the 29 jun as the left shoulder with right soulder being today..

Actually i think they could push a little more to 1125 or there about.

There is no flat top i can see like what happen from 15 to 20 june.


Edited by goldswinger, 14 July 2010 - 01:29 AM.


#4 porsche911sg

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Posted 14 July 2010 - 01:35 AM

"In a flat top formation if the number of bars of the flat top exceed the number of bars it took to get there from the previous swing base, get out!!!"

Could not get the sample charts but the text below ilustartes what we now have on ES overnight.


FIGURE 15.1 Flat surfaces at the top are illustrated.


To determine, for an intraday trade, whether the stop of the move is final or not, we should take a look at short-term charts—starting from 5 minutes and up to 15 minutes bar charts. If your position is having a floating profit at the moment and the last extreme has a flat end (top or bottom), then it would be better to wait a bit longer before taking a profit. If the market stops for long and doesn't make a new high (or low) within the period of time equal to that which it took to commit the move, then the position had better be liquidated and profit fixed. This criterion is very simple to apply to real trading. All you need is to count a number of bars on 5-minute intraday charts. If the number of bars after the market formed its last extreme equals or exceeds the number of bars that formed the last wave, then it's time to get out. See Figure 15.2.


Porsche, You have to look at the 15, 30 or 60 MIN charts.



FIGURE 15.2 The number of bars at high are 6. Number of bars after the market formed its last extreme is 4. Time to get out and take profit.

I closed my long on the GAP up on NQ.

Although I am a bit bullish but i am also fearing the top SP at the 50ma The line drawn from the top at 1210 with jun 21 intraday highs gives the top of the trend line at 1100.

It also forms a mini right shoulder if you look at the 29 jun as the left shoulder with right soulder being today..

Actually i think they could push a little more to 1125 or there about.

There is no flat top i can see like what happen from 15 to 20 june.

GS could you put a link to that charts but yes i almost never use the min basis as my positions are based on on a longer term i use the dailys only sometimes weekly. I try to catch the big move like yesterday.
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!

#5 goldswinger

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Posted 14 July 2010 - 01:47 AM

GS could you put a link to that charts but yes i almost never use the min basis as my positions are based on on a longer term i use the dailys only sometimes weekly. I try to catch the big move like yesterday.


here ya' go.

http://www.futurespr...-futures-charts Dow 10 MIN chart, but you can easily change the time frame.

#6 porsche911sg

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Posted 14 July 2010 - 02:04 AM

GS could you put a link to that charts but yes i almost never use the min basis as my positions are based on on a longer term i use the dailys only sometimes weekly. I try to catch the big move like yesterday.


here ya' go.

http://www.futurespr...-futures-charts Dow 10 MIN chart, but you can easily change the time frame.

Oh I get what you're refering to now... it's been flat topping as what you mentioned for a couple of days i noticed that. I posted if anyone had a chart to the dates i mentioned. That was before this big break out.

Actually it's bearish formation that leads to a PLUNGE...that i buying to milk this market higher that all i wanna do so that shorts are going to make big time from the plunge.
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!

#7 porsche911sg

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Posted 14 July 2010 - 02:13 AM

Forget to mention this was one of the formations that led my granddad back then in 1987 to suspect a crash was on it's was BUT that last spike was also something that happened which is usually part of this formation so if long gotta be cautious and it's hard to get short ahead of this formation because spike are usually very large that can last for just a few sessions which is enough to cause bears a burn out than it all collapses. That they finally form a pleatau on the dailys. I waiting for that day to short but its not here yet now if this one falls here it would rebound.
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!

#8 NAV

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Posted 14 July 2010 - 02:30 AM

Forget to mention this was one of the formations that led my granddad back then in 1987 to suspect a crash


Geez, give us a break dude. This ain't your Grandpa's market. :lol:


Goldswinger,

If this was a bear trend bounce, then we should just collapse without a topping formation (i.e. no retests of the top to give a rounding or flat appearance). If we start seeing a flat formation, it will likely end up as a mid-range consolidation leading to another leg-up into Aug.

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#9 porsche911sg

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Posted 14 July 2010 - 02:41 AM

Forget to mention this was one of the formations that led my granddad back then in 1987 to suspect a crash


Geez, give us a break dude. This ain't your Grandpa's market. :lol:


Goldswinger,

If this was a bear trend bounce, then we should just collapse without a topping formation (i.e. no retests of the top to give a rounding or flat appearance). If we start seeing a flat formation, it will likely end up as a mid-range consolidation leading to another leg-up into Aug.

Not true Nav, there are many bear with topping formation. rewind your charts 70 years down the road you see it.
What has happened will happen again.
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!

#10 zoropb

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Posted 14 July 2010 - 05:09 AM

Goldie nice chart below. Seems to have some juice in the tank but sure has had ridiculous volume and tiny money flow on the way up here but one day at a time though. Quick up date cashed in the 5% 1097.25 and a 5% original 1092.75 (time thing) both at 1092.50. Leaving me at 60% and some more points in the bank on this one. Spooky Thks bud from below.

Edited by zoropb, 14 July 2010 - 05:14 AM.

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