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Hurst cycles update


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#1 Echo

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Posted 19 July 2010 - 11:11 PM

The 80wk low came in July 1 for SPX and broader markets and July 6 for RUT. SPX cash had generated an upside target of 1090 for the 2.5wk cycle and this was met and exceeded last week. We then descended into the 2.5wk cycle lows on Friday and today. I'm fairly comfortable that the 2.5wk low indeed bottomed early this morning, making it a 12TD cycle. We should not go below the low of the day at 1061.11 SPX cash and certainly below the 6-7 day cycle low at 1058.24 from July 8th. Falling below those marks would be very bearish. Now the 5wk FLD target of 1042 I mentioned last week is in play. With the 2.5wk FLD target being overshot, I expect that it will be met. Doc

#2 IYB

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Posted 19 July 2010 - 11:18 PM

Now the 5wk FLD target of 1042 I mentioned last week is in play. With the 2.5wk FLD target being overshot, I expect that it will be met.

Doc

Assuming that you meant 1142, I'm in lockstep with you Doc. Analysis appreciated. :)
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#3 thespookyone

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Posted 19 July 2010 - 11:34 PM

With both you gents, and fine company it is. Thanks for the update Doc.

#4 IYB

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Posted 19 July 2010 - 11:44 PM

With both you gents, and fine company it is. Thanks for the update Doc.

I just had gone back earlier today and read a recent post of yours Spook. I think you shorted at something like 1096 and called for "1065 minimum" and possibly "1056 and change"- something like that anyhow. Pretty impressive stuff :o I was with you then and am with ya now. I'm honored to be in your camp. :) Best, D
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#5 goldswinger

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Posted 19 July 2010 - 11:48 PM

With both you gents, and fine company it is. Thanks for the update Doc.



I am getting worried, too much agreement here from the best of the best....... even Punter agrees with you guys...

There is some cognitive disonance in my head with the 1142 - 1150 target as I can see why that is.

At the same time, I am confident both gold, the $XAU and most importantly the dollar will make a move up within the next couple of days if not Tomorrow. (probably corrective on $XAU and GOLD)

If that happens , OIL will go down and the way OIL goes , so goes the SPX with a little delay....

I can't square that in my head, something is not right!!

GS.

#6 thespookyone

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Posted 20 July 2010 - 12:05 AM

Thanks D, too kind of you. I've been fortunate seeing and trading these turns. Covered the bottom today-and yep, my take never changed. We truly are seeing the same path-great thing.

#7 Echo

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Posted 20 July 2010 - 12:49 AM

Now the 5wk FLD target of 1042 I mentioned last week is in play. With the 2.5wk FLD target being overshot, I expect that it will be met.

Doc

Assuming that you meant 1142, I'm in lockstep with you Doc. Analysis appreciated. :)


Hi D, and YES, I definately meant 1142, not 1042!
Hello Spooky. Thanks for the compliment, same back atcha. Still a lot could happen to derail things with GS in the AM, AAPL in the PM, etc. We will need something special to blast through the wedge and then 1105 area.

One fly in the ointment I noted tonight is the Open 10 ARMS for naz is atrociously low, something like 0.78 per DP. Definately overbought. Hopefully part of a breath thrust enough to keep it going. The NY open 10 is 0.98 so okay there. The very high TRIN on Friday, gave a 5ema buy sig above 2.0 indicating to me at least, that Friday was nothing more than a "long covering drop", lol.

Since you guys follow this stuff, NYSI poked its nose above zero into positive territory today.
Also the NY AD components bounced off the ZL and moving up with bullish configuration so the broadest market is not purely corrective. Same with NDX. The largest caps are leading internally as are defensive issues such as utes, and cons discret. Not unexpected at this juncture after an 80wk low, summertime blues and talks of DD recession on the horizon.

Best,
Doc

Edited by Echo, 20 July 2010 - 12:50 AM.


#8 zoropb

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Posted 20 July 2010 - 06:27 AM

Sorry guys your my buds but I disagree. If cash follows futures today and takes out yesterday's low as I think they will we saw the highs and after a brief rally back to yesterday's high area bye bye 1000 likely.

Edited by zoropb, 20 July 2010 - 06:27 AM.

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#9 Cirrus

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Posted 20 July 2010 - 07:23 AM

I'm on the fence here. I can see a 70 point SPX move in either direction...just not sure and thus have high cash levels. FWIW I think today's and tomorrow's action will be pivotal. I don't like the fact that gold and gold stocks are starting to break down and I'm still watching FCX. We are also down in trend (my trend method) in the three time frames I track. There is some sentiment and cyclical things that seem to point up, though. Should be very interesting...

#10 zoropb

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Posted 20 July 2010 - 08:15 AM

We are likely under 1000 within 2 weeks.

Love, be kind to one another, seek the truth, walk the narrow path between the ying and the yang.