Jump to content



Photo

80 year cycle bottom headed our way


  • Please log in to reply
30 replies to this topic

#1 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,873 posts

Posted 12 August 2010 - 09:05 AM

Today's reports: 80 year cycle heading to Laundry's depression bottom?

Jobless Claims
Highlights
The outlook for the August employment report is off to a bad start in what can't be good for today's stock market. Initial jobless claims for the August 7 week came in at 484,000, far above expectations for 460,000 and the highest level since February. The four-week average, up a steep 14,250 to 473,500, is also the highest since February. There are no unusual factors affecting the results.

In a partial offset, continuing claims fell 118,000 in data for the July 31 week. The four-week average fell 64,000 to 4.519 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers came down one tenth to 3.5 percent. These numbers do look good but do reflect, to a degree, the expiration of benefits as the unemployed simply fall out of the insured labor pool.

Import and Export Prices
Highlights
Today's import/export price report is likely to deepen emerging concern over deflation. Import prices did rise 0.2 percent in July but reflect a 2.1 percent rise in fuel. Excluding fuel, import prices fell 0.3 percent following June's 0.5 percent contraction.

Export prices, which fell 0.7 percent in June, fell another 0.2 percent in July with declines posted in most components. Price weakness for capital-goods exports extended to a third straight month in July. Prices for consumer-goods exports contracted steeply in June but bounced slightly back in July.

Import prices for capital goods slipped slightly for a second month as they did for consumer goods. This price weakness for capital and consumer goods, on both the export and import side, hints at price competition at the finished goods level. Today's report points to disinflation elements for tomorrow's consumer price report and Tuesday's producer price report.

LINK:
http://www.nasdaq.co...asp?cust=nasdaq

Edited by Rogerdodger, 12 August 2010 - 09:07 AM.


#2 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,873 posts

Posted 12 August 2010 - 09:11 AM

Deflation?

I have just bought some protection...a foil hat.
Posted Image

Arch warned us back in March:
"Mars will be conjunct Saturn, opposing Jupiter conjunct Uranus, squared by Pluto.
Occurring from middle June to Middle August.
Mars - Uranus crash cycle begins August 1st."

Arch and Laundry agree: Bad late summer
Arch: "April 1st gold will...rocket."

WOW!
Terry Laundry references Arch Crawford in today's update.
Here is Arch's latest interview with Ike.

Pull Quote:
Ike Iossif: "I see the worst coming in 2011. What do you think?
Arch: "I'm not sure we are going to get there." :o

Market View LINK

Arch Crawford has been lightly short (50%) since March 8th
Says the seasonal pattern should be up into April-May, although the Bradley has turned.

There will be a major dislocation this year not unlike 2008
Worst Bradley has seen in 200 years, maybe 1,000, 10,000 years according to astrologers.
Hopi are looking for "5th destruction of the world."

Why so bad? Humans are not used to all the energy to be released.
"Mars will be conjunct Saturn, opposing Jupiter conjunct Uranus, squared by Pluto.
Occurring from middle June to Middle August.
Mars - Uranus crash cycle begins August 1st."

"I just hope the puts and shorts will be paid off before the whole system melts down."

Ike Issoff: "I see the worst coming in 2011. What do you think?
Arch: "I haven't looked much into 2011. I'm not sure we are going to get there."

Arch sees support for gold here at 1100 to 1080.
"The first week of April gold will take off like a rocket."

PS:
Here is a Bradley chart posted back in Feb. warning about August 2010.
It differs a bit from what Arch mentioned about the worst astrology pattern in 200, 1000, or 10,000 years.
Posted Image


Edited by Rogerdodger, 12 August 2010 - 09:12 AM.


#3 CallMeIshmael

CallMeIshmael

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 767 posts

Posted 12 August 2010 - 09:35 AM

Deflation?

I have just bought some protection...a foil hat.
Posted Image

Arch warned us back in March:
"Mars will be conjunct Saturn, opposing Jupiter conjunct Uranus, squared by Pluto.
Occurring from middle June to Middle August.
Mars - Uranus crash cycle begins August 1st."

Arch and Laundry agree: Bad late summer
Arch: "April 1st gold will...rocket."

WOW!
Terry Laundry references Arch Crawford in today's update.
Here is Arch's latest interview with Ike.

Pull Quote:
Ike Iossif: "I see the worst coming in 2011. What do you think?
Arch: "I'm not sure we are going to get there." :o

Market View LINK

Arch Crawford has been lightly short (50%) since March 8th
Says the seasonal pattern should be up into April-May, although the Bradley has turned.

There will be a major dislocation this year not unlike 2008
Worst Bradley has seen in 200 years, maybe 1,000, 10,000 years according to astrologers.
Hopi are looking for "5th destruction of the world."

Why so bad? Humans are not used to all the energy to be released.
"Mars will be conjunct Saturn, opposing Jupiter conjunct Uranus, squared by Pluto.
Occurring from middle June to Middle August.
Mars - Uranus crash cycle begins August 1st."

"I just hope the puts and shorts will be paid off before the whole system melts down."

Ike Issoff: "I see the worst coming in 2011. What do you think?
Arch: "I haven't looked much into 2011. I'm not sure we are going to get there."

Arch sees support for gold here at 1100 to 1080.
"The first week of April gold will take off like a rocket."

PS:
Here is a Bradley chart posted back in Feb. warning about August 2010.
It differs a bit from what Arch mentioned about the worst astrology pattern in 200, 1000, or 10,000 years.
Posted Image

Earth to Rogerdodger:

What the heck?

#4 NAV

NAV

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,087 posts

Posted 12 August 2010 - 09:41 AM

Roger, Arch's Aug 1 +/- week window is behind us. :)

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#5 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,873 posts

Posted 12 August 2010 - 10:02 AM

Did you ever think that maybe the world did end...and we went to hell via a Trojan? :lol:

Roger,

Arch's Aug 1 +/- week window is behind us. :)



#6 CallMeIshmael

CallMeIshmael

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 767 posts

Posted 12 August 2010 - 10:13 AM

Did you ever think that maybe the world did end...and we went to hell via a Trojan? :lol:

Roger,

Arch's Aug 1 +/- week window is behind us. :)

This Trojan was left outside the White House gate and we opened the gate and pulled it in.

#7 milbank

milbank

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,714 posts

Posted 12 August 2010 - 10:49 AM

Did you ever think that maybe the world did end...and we went to hell via a Trojan? :lol:

Roger,

Arch's Aug 1 +/- week window is behind us. :)


Perhaps but, whether we went to hell via a Trojan or not, the process is still fascinating. . . .

http://www.youtube.c...feature=related

Edited by milbank, 12 August 2010 - 10:51 AM.

"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
--George Bernard Shaw


"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free."
--Johann Wolfgang von Goethe


#8 NAV

NAV

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,087 posts

Posted 12 August 2010 - 11:27 AM

Did you ever think that maybe the world did end...and we went to hell via a Trojan? :lol:

Roger,

Arch's Aug 1 +/- week window is behind us. :)


I have a feeling, Laundry's 80 year cycle bottom will also end up like Arch's Cardinal climax non-event. These soothsayers abilities and track record are pretty embarassing and dismal ! I was talking to some astro guy and he said this whole 2012 mayan calendar stuff is pure baloney and is a result of miscalculation and the real event is in 2112 :lol: :lol: Unfarginbeleivable ! :lol:

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#9 salsabob

salsabob

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,164 posts

Posted 12 August 2010 - 11:39 AM

CPI is currently at 1% and unemployment rate @ 8%; according to the graph (courtesy of B. Delong http://tinyurl.com/274nacw )

Posted Image

- CPI will be at -3.5% (that's minus) in two years. :swoon:

I agree with Dr. DeLong - not likely but who knows for sure? :sweatingbullets:
John Galt shrugged, outsourced to Red China and opened a hedge fund for unregulated securitized credit derivatives.

If the world didn't suck, wouldn't we all just fly off?

#10 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,873 posts

Posted 12 August 2010 - 11:54 AM

Long term forecasts are interesting, and maybe helpful.
I took a canoe trip with some friends years ago.
As a former boy scout I was prepared for the inevitable capsize and I tied everything to the boat and put my lunch in waterproof bags.
My friends just laughed because the water was so calm where we entered.
At lunch I had a sandwich while my friends looked for their shoes, keys, sunglasses, oars and canoe while they tried to wring out their sandwiches.
We still laugh about that trip. (Me especially.) ;)

Is that a bit of rough water I see ahead?
Is that not in fact a death cross followed by a failed rally?
http://stockcharts.c...8057&r=1783.png

Be reasonably prepared for the worst and as you approach white water, double ckeck your knots.Posted Image
Float Oklahoma's Scenic Illinois River

Edited by Rogerdodger, 12 August 2010 - 12:15 PM.