29 replies to this topic

[TechMan]

Am I the only bull on board right now?

Anywy, I’ve finally got a chance to go over last week’s data sets (options, COT, yields, volume, Forex, etc.). The more I look at them, the more I feel like looking at a bottom formation rather than a top.

For starter, has anyone noticed that the 10-Week SMA of the NYSE Index, one of the important criteria of the Hingenburg Omen signal, was actually NOT RISING. It's been FALLING since 8/9/2010.

Oops…



Among other things, major tops and the subsequent major corrections have always been preceded by the surge of at least 350, but mostly over 400, NYSE New Highs since 2007 (except for the bear market in 2008). Currently, the New Highs are barely hanging on to 100. Even the two major tops in 2008 coincided with the spikes of 211 & 229 new highs.

Here’s a 2009 chart.

Edited by TechMan, 14 August 2010 - 10:03 PM.

[Iblayz]

It's a weekly moving average and you are using the argument that it has fallen for five days? On July 16th the weekly SMA was 6776.49 and it closed this week at 6849.88.......and your argument is that the weekly SMA wasn't rising? And further, what about the 643 new high number in April of 2010. A major top of a corrective move maybe? And what about the 280 number reached just a few days ago? That's higher than both of those 2008 numbers referenced.

Edited by Iblayz, 14 August 2010 - 11:16 PM.

[TechMan]

It's a weekly moving average and you are using the argument that it has fallen for five days? On July 16th the weekly SMA was 6776.49 and it closed this week at 6849.88.......and your argument is that the weekly SMA wasn't rising?

Put your thinking hat on first and get your mind straight.

It’s the weekly moving average that has to be rising along with the correct count of the new highs and new lows on the same DAY. If you’re going to use the weekly count of the moving average, then you should invent your own Zeppelin or something omen and use the WEEKLY NEW HIGHS AND NEW LOWS.

As for the 600+ new highs in April, how much the coorection had already taken place from April high to July low? How long do you expect a spike in the new highs to last as a technical top? 2 months, 3 months, forever?

The minor spike in the beginning of August has more than likely already been factored into the selloff last week.

And, stop asking me how about this and how about that...

Edited by TechMan, 14 August 2010 - 11:25 PM.

[dcengr]

The data suggests to me we're more in consolidation from which it can go higher or lower in IT time frames.

False HO signals do not make for a bullish case. Major IT tops were formed without any HO signals. If I saw rampant HO on boards and realized signal was iffy, I may consider that bullish but this is not the case.

Recent TSP poll suggests to me that retail is getting very bearish rather quickly, so if I had to guess right now, I'd agree with you that a bear trap monday is probably a buy per my previous post expecting a gap close then a scorch.

Week S&P 500 S&P 500 Buy/ Bull/
From: To: Bulls Bears Ratio gain/loss Close Sell Fund Bear
08/16/10 - 08/20/10 29% 63% 0.46 -1 Buy S Bull
08/09/10 - 08/13/10 53% 33% 1.61 -1 -3.78% 1079.25 Sell G Bull
08/02/10 - 08/06/10 43% 41% 1.05 -1 1.82% 1121.64 Sell G Bear
07/26/10 - 07/30/10 43% 44% 0.98 -1 -0.10% 1101.60 Sell G Bear
07/19/10 - 07/23/10 43% 43% 1.00 -1 3.55% 1102.66 Sell G Bear
07/12/10 - 07/16/10 54% 37% 1.46 -1 -1.21% 1064.88 Sell G Bear

[IYB]

I understand that you disagree with the bearish case a la Hindenburg Omen Tech Man. You are definitely entitled. 100% entitled to disagree. But could you please clarify the bullish case you are presenting? Too few new highs? That's why you are bullish? Or have I missed the point somewhere? Wouldn't be the first time. Very Best, D

[TechMan]

False HO signals do not make for a bullish case. Major IT tops were formed without any HO signals. If I saw rampant HO on boards and realized signal was iffy, I may consider that bullish but this is not the case.

dcengr - Agreed. Thus titled "A Bullish Case and the False Hindenburg Omen Call".

How's your vacation? At least, I though you're on vacation. Were that the case, hope you're fully recharged and ready to go at it.

Looking back at my post again, I guess I hadn't made much of a bullish case yet. Alright, I'll put up a couple of other things.

IYB - Just picked up your inquiry. Give me a few minutes to get back with you.

Edited by TechMan, 14 August 2010 - 11:45 PM.

[dcengr]

False HO signals do not make for a bullish case. Major IT tops were formed without any HO signals. If I saw rampant HO on boards and realized signal was iffy, I may consider that bullish but this is not the case.

dcengr - Agreed. Thus titled "A Bullish Case and the False Hindenburg Omen Call".

How's your vacation? At least, I though you're on vacation. Were that the case, hope you're fully recharged and ready to go at it.

Looking back at my post again, I guess I hadn't made much of a bullish case yet. Alright, I'll put up a couple of other things.

I'm still on vacation until thursday next week. I'm enjoying south carolina right now. We went from yosemite to SF then orlando to charleston. Been full several weeks.

But I'm still looking at market data during nights after rest are asleep.. I'm still operating west coast time it seems, though I'm at east coast now.

Before I left, I had some idea mapped for the market direction and its deviating from it. I expected an IT top last week but the break came early price wise and indicator levels I expected didn't materialize before the break. If everything had clicked, I would've shorted during my vacation, but it did not.

So I'm a bit loss for plans and that usually means I would do shorter term trading which I can't do while I'm on vacation.

As I posted over the last few days, it seems to me the break came too early for what I expected of a 20%+ correction that I think we're on the cusp of. But because I feel strongly a 20%+ break is close, any long trade for me would be on a tight leash.

What I would LIKE (not necessarily what will happen) is that a break lower monday results in a ST low from which the gap at Dow 10800 ish gets filled, followed by my previous indicator expectations being filled. That would give me confidence for an IT trade.

But if it goes much lower from here, I'll have to scrap my entire IT picture and start over.

[TechMan]

I understand that you disagree with the bearish case a la Hindenburg Omen Tech Man. You are definitely entitled. 100% entitled to disagree. But could you please clarify the bullish case you are presenting? Too few new highs? That's why you are bullish? Or have I missed the point somewhere? Wouldn't be the first time. Very Best, D

I'm trying to find something that's not proprietary to share... Anyway, here's a chart that shows the change of the Nasdaq direction following the spikes of my indicator (black curve) above the upper red line. If the trend's down, then a bullish reversal should be expected, and vice versa.



In addition, my options analyzer also indicates an imminent reversal due to extreme bearish readings. I'd like to show the charts, but I'll have to re-worlk them first due to proprietary nature.

Alright, time for shower and some late dinner... We'll have to pick this up later.

Edited by TechMan, 15 August 2010 - 12:14 AM.

[humbled]

I drew a different conclusion than yours from the chart below:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYA&p=W&b=5&g=0&i=p45981091012&a=206307274&r=9688.png

Edited by humbled, 15 August 2010 - 01:34 AM.

[antiphos]

Am I the only bull on board right now?

Anywy, I’ve finally got a chance to go over last week’s data sets (options, COT, yields, volume, Forex, etc.). The more I look at them, the more I feel like looking at a bottom formation rather than a top.

For starter, has anyone noticed that the 10-Week SMA of the NYSE Index, one of the important criteria of the Hingenburg Omen signal, was actually NOT RISING. It's been FALLING since 8/9/2010.

Oops…



Among other things, major tops and the subsequent major corrections have always been preceded by the surge of at least 350, but mostly over 400, NYSE New Highs since 2007 (except for the bear market in 2008). Currently, the New Highs are barely hanging on to 100. Even the two major tops in 2008 coincided with the spikes of 211 & 229 new highs.

Here’s a 2009 chart.

There is a chart at Financial Sense comparing the current market to 1938. So far, the correlation has been excellent. I it continues, a rally into Sept would be in order.
FS article

Edited by antiphos, 15 August 2010 - 09:55 AM.