29 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

Among other things, major tops and the subsequent major corrections have always been preceded by the surge of at least 350, but mostly over 400, NYSE New Highs since 2007 (except for the
There is a chart at Financial Sense comparing the current market to 1938. So far, the correlation has been excellent. I it continues, a rally into Sept would be in order.

My Long Term charts for the RUT look like we are already done with SEP per your chart below,.. and now moving into October.
if anyone would like it i could post it.
FWIW i am still nervously over 50% Long as of Friday and looking to exit soon .

Dev,

That failed rally you show is the same potential rally we have out of a Hurst 80 week low. Once it is over THEN the markets slide into the next 18 month, 4.5 and 9 year lows.

The big question is where does it start from.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 15 August 2010 - 07:30 PM.

[arbman]

With ya' all the way Arb. We will be fools together, it seems. Best regards, D

They tried to attach the wings to the humps, but the camel did not fly, imho... Best... G

--
Technically though, it is a difficult setup for 1-2 more days. It just could not escape the pause zone, it is harder to press it down in there... However, the red line will be above the green next week, the consolidation should be pretty much over and we should see the resolution down as crossing below the red line signaled about another (1130-1080=) 50 points drop within 6-7 sessions. We may see something similar to late January early-February trading and it would setup for a bounce at the end of the month. So, a drop to 1060s, sharp rebound and then the real drop on Friday or early next week... I think it goes to (1080-50=) 1030-1040 to test the previous support gap at 1060 from below --next week, then another 100 down from 1060 --next month...

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p95406916849&r=3751&.png

Edited by arbman, 15 August 2010 - 07:55 PM.

[TechMan]

TechMan, you cannot talk this one up anymore, this market is going down and asap.

The semis are leading down and it means is the growth leadership leading down, imho. If INTC is your pick for the bullish case and the semiconductors that we need to follow now, I'd say watch out, I won't participate in such a rally, even if it goes up a bit...

Here's my call for the week, I am bearish for the week, for the remainder of the month and for the remainder of the quarter. I just cannot wish for this sucker to bounce a little at this juncture, probably it will just dive without letting anyone get on board heavily...

Who would sell this short here heavily, answer: only the fools --and they will make the money!

The link you’ve provided was my observation from a month ago that’s based on 7/16/2010 closing data. In today’s uncertain and volatile market, how long do you expect a technical observation to remain unchanged? Right now, just when you thought you saw some technical formation in progress, things could change drastically overnight with a large gap up or down. Back then, even your new found comrade IYB was in total agreement with me.

In addition, since I made the call, from 7/16/2010 to last Monday, 8/9/2010, the SPX had gained nearly 6%. I didn’t see you bringing up my analysis to praise me for the great call. Fair is fair, right?

Having said all that, right now the SPX is still 25 or so points above 7/16/2010. I’m a “mean reversion” or a contrarian trader. And, I see those big gaps in the Nasdaq last week as great opportunity for some profitable mean reversion trades. Be it a bounce or the commencement of a new uptrend, I really don’t see anything wrong to have an open mind and take advantage of that probability for some quick bucks. I mean, after all, that’s what we’re doing professionally, isn’t it? Why so obsessed with being right or wrong?

[Iblayz]

Put your thinking hat on first and get your mind straight.

And, stop asking me how about this and how about that...

I will honor your request and try to avoid asking you anything ever again. But I will also try harder NOT to post from my laptop late on a Saturday night from our lakehouse when I might have something in me other than Koolaid. I too (like Humbled) had a longer term chart in my weekly folder that makes it almost impossible to see any drop at all in the SMA of the NYSE. A shorter term chart is quite different. With that I will shut up.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYA&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p67448183775&a=206432453&r=9520.png

Edited by Iblayz, 15 August 2010 - 10:29 PM.

[TechMan]

Put your thinking hat on first and get your mind straight.

And, stop asking me how about this and how about that...

I will honor your request and try to avoid asking you anything ever again. But I will also try harder NOT to post from my laptop late on a Saturday night from our lakehouse when I might have something in me other than Koolaid. I too (like Humbled) had a longer term chart in my weekly folder that makes it almost impossible to see any drop at all in the SMA of the NYSE. A shorter term chart is quite different. With that I will shut up.

Hey Iblayz - I didn’t know that’s where you were and what you were doing when you posted that comment. I guess I took your line of questioning the wrong way. Of course, I didn’t mean you should never ask me anything ever again, now that you’ve clarified the issue with me. Thanks for that.

Just for the record, even if we were to use the weekly moving average count, as you had mentioned, the weekly change of the 10-week SMA still has been in decline since the week of 8/2/2010. Weekly count uses Mondays’ close. Since we don’t have tomorrow’s closing data yet, I’m using Friday’s instead. And, here’s the weekly change chart.

Have a great trading week ahead... BTW, I've just noticed the chart says Weekly Change, but it's actually the weekly change of the 10-week SMA. It's getting late, and I'm exhausted...

Edited by TechMan, 15 August 2010 - 11:08 PM.

[Iblayz]

Actually, I'm embarassing myself. I should go to bed. The last chart I posted was not the weekly chart........DUH......so I will avoid an attempt to save face and just say it this way...... 8/09/2010......6882.61 8/10/2010......6877.75 8/11/2010......6854.05 8/12/2010......6851.97 8/13/2010......6849.88

[Iblayz]

Then again, it could be a matter of perspective. These are 10 wk SMAs based on closing values. 8/04/2010......6826.65 8/05/2010......6825.86 8/06/2010......6823.80 8/09/2010......6882.61 8/10/2010......6877.75 8/11/2010......6854.05 8/12/2010......6851.97 8/13/2010......6849.88 So Wednesday, Thursday and Friday's values were still higher than the same values for the same days from the week before.....so the argument could/can be made that the weekly SMA is rising or falling based on what one wants to see.

[arbman]

The 10 wk moving average on the above data is UP. Weekly change is DOWN. See, it is slowing DOWN, but its going UP. In any case, the important here is not whether we have a perfect git HO, what we had at the top was the leadership shifting to energy and commodities and the last rally coming from the utilities and health care sector while tech and financials were lagging.

By no means, I come here to say that Fed will not or cannot support this market, they can and they can make our trading quite miserable. Do you remember the absurd volatility in Sep of 2008 ahead of the crash, do you remember the volatility in May 2010 ahead of the flash crash? This is why I was hoping to see the bid left under the market and sell a rally or at least some sort of an o/b in the intraday measures...

Maybe we'll get it. I try to trade all the fluctuations the best I can, just like you try to, but this is a particularly weak situation in my opinion, we maybe in an early phase of 120-130 points slide...

[TechMan]

Weekly change is DOWN.

That’s exactly what I had said in my comment above, isn’t it? Did I say anything otherwise? I even repeated it a couple of times to make sure that’s understood.

In any case, this gives me an opportunity to address another reason why the moving average count has to be daily in conjunction with the same day’s count of the new highs and new lows. The weekly moving averages aren’t official until after the market closes on Monday. We can’t have a Hindenburg Omen day and then wait till next Monday just to find out whether the weekly SMA is up or down.

I think we’ve all had enough of this Zeppelin Omen for the day… That’s it then. I’m off to enjoying Alain Delon's FABIO MONTALE.

It'll be a great trading day tomorrow.

[Mr Dev]

thanks SO for sharing some thoughts on that.

Among other things, major tops and the subsequent major corrections have always been preceded by the surge of at least 350, but mostly over 400, NYSE New Highs since 2007 (except for the
There is a chart at Financial Sense comparing the current market to 1938. So far, the correlation has been excellent. I it continues, a rally into Sept would be in order.

My Long Term charts for the RUT look like we are already done with SEP per your chart below,.. and now moving into October.
if anyone would like it i could post it.
FWIW i am still nervously over 50% Long as of Friday and looking to exit soon .

Dev,

That failed rally you show is the same potential rally we have out of a Hurst 80 week low. Once it is over THEN the markets slide into the next 18 month, 4.5 and 9 year lows.

The big question is where does it start from.

cheers,

john