29 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

Your bullish case is that the SPX tests the Flash Crash Low (1065) that Nasdaq closed under on Friday and that the price is rejected and you rally into the elections. Outside of that, the markets are split, and that isn't going to last long.

[VolPivots]

Probably a self-fulfilling prophecy. Hindernberg Omen, Prechter on CNBC and now Goldman is warning of a meaningful decline after they recommended clients selling mid-term volatility a week or two ago, which someone apparently was buying. Note that Goldman nailed the bottom with their "The Slowdown is Here" call in early July, but they did not make a market direction call...now they are.

[TechMan]

humbled – It’s your eyes vs. the math Take your pick…

antiphos – What an honor to have your #8 post since 2004 on this thread!!! I think Milbank had also posted similar charts in the past. Let’s see how it all plays out.

SemiBizz – There’s also the seasonality in the 2nd year of the presidential cycle, and the probable inside-day/inverted-hammer reversal that I had commented on Friday. We’ll take it one step at a time.

BTW, Semi, sometimes I feel as though you’re the unofficial reference book on this board. What a great asset!!!

dcengr – Did you leave your heart in San Francisco? What a city! I’m sure you’re right; the retail investors have probably turned extremely bearish after 8/10/10. Enjoy your time off...

VolPivots – Poignant…

“The self-fulfilling prophecy is, in the beginning, a false definition of the situation evoking a new behaviour which makes the original false conception come 'true'. This specious validity of the self-fulfilling prophecy perpetuates a reign of error. For the prophet will cite the actual course of events as proof that he was right from the very beginning.”

Alright, back to the NFL pre-season…

[SilentOne]

Semi,

Your bullish case is that the SPX tests the Flash Crash Low (1065) that Nasdaq closed under on Friday and that the price is rejected and you rally into the elections.

Outside of that, the markets are split, and that isn't going to last long.

An 18 month Hurst cycle low here this week (or very soon) would do a major number and trap many. Not making a directional call just yet, but I am considering your scenario above very seriously this weekend. Have a look at INTC and CSCO (volume analysis) if you have the time. The thing I note is that these two stocks are testing a 50% retracement from 2009 lows. That is significant from a Gann perspective. Combine that with these stocks making 18 month lows, and you have to start thinking about accumulating longs.

cheers,

john

[SemiBizz]

Both of those stocks can test a little lower... looking at the weeklies... INTC needs to test support of 19.00 (1/18/08) CSCO gave a negative weekly signal on the close under 21.77 (2/18/08) However, Gap support at 20.58 on that one. Both survived this same set of tests on 7/02 weeklies.

[Echo]

Hello John, The recent 4 samples of 80 wk cycles have averaged 78.5 wks if my math is correct. We have now completed 75wks off the March 09 lows. With the bullish rise since the March 09 80wk low, I might expect this 80wk cycle to shorten somewhat. Say 77.5wks in length instead. That would place the 80wk cycle low at around 2.5wks from now. Well counting off the July 1 cycle (possible 80wk cycle low based on 20wk cycles), the 5 wk low came in at 21TD on July 30. We are now roughly 10.5TD from the early morning low on July 30th, roughly what you might expect for the 2.5wk cycle. That means we should bottom here or on Monday for the 2.5wk cycle. That places the 10wk cycle as 2.5wks more from here. My belief, right or wrong, is that this 10wk cycle off the 80wk low July 1 is muted because of the negative effect of the actual 80wk cycle echoing in right here and due roughly coincident with the 10wk low off the July 1 lows. Now this 2.5wk cycle undercut the 5wk low with lower lows. That is not bullish by any means. Upside targets haven't been met and that is not bullish either. Hopefully, time will show this downswoop here to be a cycle straddle, perhaps due to the 80wk low exerting its effects and we can rally from here. Otherwise, the next 70 weeks is going to be bearish... Doc

[SilentOne]

Hello John,

The recent 4 samples of 80 wk cycles have averaged 78.5 wks if my math is correct. We have now completed 75wks off the March 09 lows. With the bullish rise since the March 09 80wk low, I might expect this 80wk cycle to shorten somewhat. Say 77.5wks in length instead. That would place the 80wk cycle low at around 2.5wks from now.
Well counting off the July 1 cycle (possible 80wk cycle low based on 20wk cycles), the 5 wk low came in at 21TD on July 30. We are now roughly 10.5TD from the early morning low on July 30th, roughly what you might expect for the 2.5wk cycle. That means we should bottom here or on Monday for the 2.5wk cycle. That places the 10wk cycle as 2.5wks more from here.

My belief, right or wrong, is that this 10wk cycle off the 80wk low July 1 is muted because of the negative effect of the actual 80wk cycle echoing in right here and due roughly coincident with the 10wk low off the July 1 lows.

Now this 2.5wk cycle undercut the 5wk low with lower lows. That is not bullish by any means. Upside targets haven't been met and that is not bullish either. Hopefully, time will show this downswoop here to be a cycle straddle, perhaps due to the 80wk low exerting its effects and we can rally from here. Otherwise, the next 70 weeks is going to be bearish...

Doc

hi Doc,

I have always counted low to low and included the weekly low bar. Thus next week will be the 77th weekly bar.

I will be watching Monday and next week very closely.



cheers,

john

P.S. Have a look at INTC and CSCO. They are at very important points.

[Mr Dev]

Among other things, major tops and the subsequent major corrections have always been preceded by the surge of at least 350, but mostly over 400, NYSE New Highs since 2007 (except for the
There is a chart at Financial Sense comparing the current market to 1938. So far, the correlation has been excellent. I it continues, a rally into Sept would be in order.

My Long Term charts for the RUT look like we are already done with SEP per your chart below,.. and now moving into October.
if anyone would like it i could post it.
FWIW i am still nervously over 50% Long as of Friday and looking to exit soon .

Edited by Mr Dev, 15 August 2010 - 06:14 PM.

[arbman]

TechMan, you cannot talk this one up anymore, this market is going down and asap.

The semis are leading down and it means is the growth leadership leading down, imho. If INTC is your pick for the bullish case and the semiconductors that we need to follow now, I'd say watch out, I won't participate in such a rally, even if it goes up a bit...

Here's my call for the week, I am bearish for the week, for the remainder of the month and for the remainder of the quarter. I just cannot wish for this sucker to bounce a little at this juncture, probably it will just dive without letting anyone get on board heavily...

Who would sell this short here heavily, answer: only the fools --and they will make the money!

[IYB]

TechMan, you cannot talk this one up anymore, this market is going down and asap.

The semis are leading down and it means is the growth leadership leading down, imho. If INTC is your pick for the bullish case and the semiconductors that we need to follow now, I'd say watch out, I won't participate in such a rally, even if it goes up a bit...

Here's my call for the week, I am bearish for the week, for the remainder of the month and for the remainder of the quarter. I just cannot wish for this sucker to bounce a little at this juncture, probably it will just dive without letting anyone get on board heavily...

Who would sell this short here heavily, answer: only the fools --and they will make the money!

With ya' all the way Arb. We will be fools together, it seems. Best regards, D