Jump to content



Photo

Was it the Fib or the Fork?


  • Please log in to reply
39 replies to this topic

#11 Mr Dev

Mr Dev

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 11,511 posts

Posted 16 August 2010 - 06:57 PM

nice thread
then back in 09 options expired the following week or about 9 market days later. now in 2010 options expire in 3 days i think there will be a different influence.

im a little on the fence with the market and everyones timing the bottom falling out, as i see it we might not turn down tomorrow or as soon as many are expecting.

for one it's not often so many people would be right.

here's wishing the best to our trades :bowtie:

Fits with what I've got H & Z. Reminiscent of of Feb 2009 when the 6+ TRIN reading produced absolutely nothing on the upside:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRIN&p=D&st=2009-01-01&en=2009-03-15&i=p28432492138&a=206360526&r=273.pnghttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRIN&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=15&i=p63847656411&a=199263757&r=482.png


Edited by Mr Dev, 16 August 2010 - 06:59 PM.


.. .. ..
Mr Dev

......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!

#12 colion

colion

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 981 posts

Posted 16 August 2010 - 06:58 PM

Was it the Fib or the Fork which found support at 1070ish?


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p56110117106&a=206391668&r=2753.png

And how about that Hindenberg volume? :o



My pitchfork has the same anchors and yet today's action is well below the median line. Any clue as to what the difference is?

Posted Image

#13 zoropb

zoropb

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,319 posts

Posted 16 August 2010 - 06:58 PM

Glad you posted that D. I was thinking it feels like that period. Had not even looked at that time in the charts. If I remember correctly we even had a chat around that time that we were getting close to a good bounce but needed more work below. It may have been a week after but we did. I keep thinking we make a good low early Sept. maybe around the 8th like the 09 March low being the 9th. It would be nice so I can go to Europe long for next vacations. :lol: They did leave the gap like 2008 the sick bastages. :lol: At these lows if it plays out it should be a decent valuation level too. May even have to take out the free money over 1005 one of these days. :lol: It would be more of a currency intrinsic value thing than a happy days are ahead economy thing.
I run a traders Blog with high probability targeting on ES , YM, and will put up 3 others if asked. I mainly trade es and YM. http://ztradingintro.blogspot.com/ YM targeting is closed to any new members for good. Thanks for your interest. Good trades to you.

#14 hitoya

hitoya

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 494 posts

Posted 16 August 2010 - 08:08 PM

Since 10/2008, there have been 7 times with trin close >5. 5 of them rallied at least a bit. One collapsed to 666 from down 78.6% level. The current one is unknown. But my guess is "rally a little" so we have 6 of 7. ;)

I'd say put a fibork in it, but I'm expecting a wee bit more of a bounce in here. :P

:lol:

yep but after tomorrow may the force be with those on the long side cause the market may not be.

Fits with what I've got H & Z. Reminiscent of of Feb 2009 when the 6+ TRIN reading produced absolutely nothing on the upside:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRIN&p=D&st=2009-01-01&en=2009-03-15&i=p28432492138&a=206360526&r=273.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRIN&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=15&i=p63847656411&a=199263757&r=482.png




Edited by hitoya, 16 August 2010 - 08:16 PM.


#15 thespookyone

thespookyone

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,043 posts

Posted 16 August 2010 - 08:16 PM

I'm more with Mr Dev here, but with a twist. I think we pop-1087-1089 ES, then drop one more time, 1064 or so ES- followed by a fairly stiff move up. I'm afraid the "herd" this time is the short crowd-just a bit too early. I bet the drop to 1164 ropes more bears than one could dream-they are nothing but rocket fuel on the way back up.

Edited by thespookyone, 16 August 2010 - 08:18 PM.


#16 hitoya

hitoya

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 494 posts

Posted 16 August 2010 - 08:31 PM

SPY max pain 110.

I'm more with Mr Dev here, but with a twist. I think we pop-1087-1089 ES, then drop one more time, 1064 or so ES- followed by a fairly stiff move up. I'm afraid the "herd" this time is the short crowd-just a bit too early. I bet the drop to 1164 ropes more bears than one could dream-they are nothing but rocket fuel on the way back up.



#17 zoropb

zoropb

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,319 posts

Posted 16 August 2010 - 09:07 PM

Between the Bouncers to new highs and the Hindenburgers we should end up in the middle 958. Sept. 8th :lol:
I run a traders Blog with high probability targeting on ES , YM, and will put up 3 others if asked. I mainly trade es and YM. http://ztradingintro.blogspot.com/ YM targeting is closed to any new members for good. Thanks for your interest. Good trades to you.

#18 IYB

IYB

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 7,110 posts

Posted 16 August 2010 - 09:37 PM

Between the Bouncers to new highs and the Hindenburgers we should end up in the middle 958. Sept. 8th :lol:

First off Z, a hope we make a sweet little bottom by Sept 8.....

Dang! they won't let me insert the image of the "sweet thing"!

....so that you can get long and head off to Euro-land in peace and tranquility.

But it sounds like the SPX expectations for about that time are all over the map here at FF. Why don't we do some sort of a "fearless closest to the pin" contest for where SPX cash is at COB September 8.... as a kick off to your vacation?

Just a thought..... :) D
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#19 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 24,502 posts

Posted 16 August 2010 - 09:46 PM

My pitchfork has the same anchors and yet today's action is well below the median line. Any clue as to what the difference is?


Scale. Mine is LOG scale.
However the FIB scale produced the same result as the LOG scale!

Edited by Rogerdodger, 16 August 2010 - 09:50 PM.


#20 humbled

humbled

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 130 posts

Posted 16 August 2010 - 10:02 PM

I should say I am long for that wee bounce (FAS). If wee turns into whee, I'll ride it with glee. But if the lower tine gives way, I'll have to say, time to cash in for another day...

http://stockcharts.c...6263&r=6082.png
BIT #10:

Don’t focus on the money. Focus on executing trades well.

If you are getting in and out of trades rationally, the money will take care of itself.

--from 40 Bits of Trading Wisdom (posted by Capitulation years ago on FF)