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#11 vitaminm

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Posted 03 September 2010 - 01:00 PM

Most viewers are too busy chasing SPX and can't see a beauty of junk bond/mutual funds yielding 8-10%.



http://finance.yahoo...=...l&c=HYG,SPY

performance as of today...........................................................................
..........................++yield!!

Symbol Today 5 Days 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Year

JNK 0.1 1.32 0.09 8.27 3.95 21.54
HYG 0.15 1.54 -0.03 8.01 4.32 18.49
SPY 0.93 3.4 -2.09 5.24 -2.85 11.42

http://finance.yahoo...SPY prhyx vwehx

Edited by vitaminm, 03 September 2010 - 01:07 PM.

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#12 Gary Smith

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Posted 03 September 2010 - 01:13 PM

Most viewers are too busy chasing SPX and can't see a beauty of junk bond/mutual funds yielding 8-10%.



http://finance.yahoo...=...l&c=HYG,SPY

performance as of today...........................................................................
..........................++yield!!

Symbol Today 5 Days 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Year

JNK 0.1 1.32 0.09 8.27 3.95 21.54
HYG 0.15 1.54 -0.03 8.01 4.32 18.49
SPY 0.93 3.4 -2.09 5.24 -2.85 11.42



So true and your data are total return numbers unlike what you see with the charts of JNK and HYG or even the open end junk funds which don't tell the real picture. If you want to see what is actually occurring in junk bond land pictorially look at a chart of the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index. It's a thing of real beauty and I wish someone had the means to post it here as I don't. Emerging market bond funds are just as trendy.

#13 ds

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Posted 03 September 2010 - 01:30 PM

http://online.wsj.co...ondbnchmrk.html

Not a graph, but it makes the point.
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#14 vitaminm

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Posted 03 September 2010 - 02:00 PM

Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index..h0a0... TFCIX which correlates closely with the H0A0 index





http://quantinvestor...nd-persistence/
http://finance.yahoo...FCIX&...&q=l&c=







Most viewers are too busy chasing SPX and can't see a beauty of junk bond/mutual funds yielding 8-10%.



http://finance.yahoo...=...l&c=HYG,SPY

performance as of today...........................................................................
..........................++yield!!

Symbol Today 5 Days 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths 1 Year

JNK 0.1 1.32 0.09 8.27 3.95 21.54
HYG 0.15 1.54 -0.03 8.01 4.32 18.49
SPY 0.93 3.4 -2.09 5.24 -2.85 11.42



So true and your data are total return numbers unlike what you see with the charts of JNK and HYG or even the open end junk funds which don't tell the real picture. If you want to see what is actually occurring in junk bond land pictorially look at a chart of the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index. It's a thing of real beauty and I wish someone had the means to post it here as I don't. Emerging market bond funds are just as trendy.


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#15 TradeXTC

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Posted 03 September 2010 - 02:11 PM

Thanks to Gary's recommended open end bond funds to watch daily, I was able to recognize the divergence...buy when the sentiment was hitting extreme and the VIX was up...and ride this rally. Went to 25% long end of day yesterday. Waiting on next go round of easy money. Thanks Gary
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#16 Gary Smith

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Posted 03 September 2010 - 02:18 PM

[quote name='vitaminm' date='Sep 3 2010, 02:00 PM' post='541351']
Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index..h0a0... TFCIX which correlates closely with the H0A0 index





http://quantinvestor...nd-persistence/
http://finance.yahoo...FCIX&...&q=l&c=


I hate to be a nitpicker here, but no, not really for TFCVX. Its chart, a price only chart, shows a high in May when in reality H0A0, a total return index chart, made a series of all time highs during the late July/early August period (something like 14 consecutive days or so) And anyone holding a basket of open end junk bond funds also saw all time equity highs in their accounts. H0a0 (that the letters h and a but the numeral 0) is available here


http://www.mlindex.m...lic/Default.asp

#17 Gary Smith

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Posted 03 September 2010 - 02:36 PM

Thanks to Gary's recommended open end bond funds to watch daily, I was able to recognize the divergence...buy when the sentiment was hitting extreme and the VIX was up...and ride this rally. Went to 25% long end of day yesterday. Waiting on next go round of easy money.

Thanks Gary



Thanks, but again, if you watch the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II index you would see a much clearer and earlier picture for the divergence. Also, I combine junk with Zweig's 9 to 1 up days, another indicator that isn't very appreciated here. Except I use it for adding in junk bond funds and not equities. You are right about recent sentiment especially the daily timers tracked by Hulbert which I believe were at a 50% net short a week or so ago. I am not making any prediction whatsoever and wish I had remained in my cave as I could care less about stocks and equities. All I have been primarily trading since mid December 2008 are bond funds, primarily junk because of its trend persistency and because its lack of volatility allows you to trade with with 100% of your liquid net worth if necessary. Hopefully I can go back to stocks when the trend flattens or changes for bonds.

#18 vitaminm

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Posted 03 September 2010 - 03:04 PM

http://www.distresse...hm-tlt-lqd.html


vwehx...bear trend since 1998

http://charts.barcha...v...KIC&org=stk

Edited by vitaminm, 03 September 2010 - 03:13 PM.

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#19 Gary Smith

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Posted 03 September 2010 - 03:09 PM

http://www.distresse...hm-tlt-lqd.html



Thank you!! I think that's the first time I have ever seen an h0a0 chart on this site.

#20 Gary Smith

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Posted 03 September 2010 - 03:33 PM

vwehx...bear trend since 1998

http://charts.barcha...v...KIC&org=stk
[/quote]


Thanks and reason why charts are completely worthless when it comes to bond funds, especially junk bond funds. VWEHX in a bear trend since 1998?? In fact, anyone who bought at the top tick on that chart is now sitting right at all time equity highs in their accounts.

Edited by Gary Smith, 03 September 2010 - 03:34 PM.