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the trend is your friend


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#121 tradermama

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Posted 07 October 2010 - 10:02 AM

traderama- i would like to see a close above 1358 for the market to indicate its intentions.
sinclair is so adamant that gold is going to 1650 by jan 11.
i have to follow my work. and this cycle for time has topped or is topping . tomorrow is venus retrograde, while there are no divergences, i am not prepared to go back to all in @this point. i watching the market for clues. my gut says this thing wants higher, but maybe a pause is necessary. ?! the market speaks in a different tongue, but it does speak. for now no action by me . i did buy san gold on monday as i said above. for sure i am wearing my buy hat. but i need to see signs to buy. darn i look good in this buy hat!
dharma


Also the Euro quickly bounced off of 1.40 and is now slightly negative...Yea, I think you look dashing in your hat too!..You can put a feather in that hat cuz you'vd done good in your calls!
TM

#122 inamosa

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Posted 07 October 2010 - 10:26 AM

The corrections so far in this move have been $25-40. We hit close to $1370 overnight and now appear to be attempting at least a ST bottom at ~$1330. That coincides with the top of the channel dharma suggested we would test. Too early to call the move off the June low over. Let's see what happens from here.
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#123 dharma

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Posted 07 October 2010 - 10:32 AM

The corrections so far in this move have been $25-40.

We hit close to $1370 overnight and now appear to be attempting at least a ST bottom at ~$1330. That coincides with the top of the channel dharma suggested we would test.

Too early to call the move off the June low over. Let's see what happens from here.

yes, i agree, this sort of feels like it did on monday
i am watching 1341 and 1325
hui 508
if oversold on the hourlies and diverge i will add back . i am trading
this channel, from the july lows, is now the markets highway. it has left its footprints.
a pause that refreshes.
i will not be a deer in the headlights
dharma

#124 dougie

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Posted 07 October 2010 - 12:21 PM

too many people thinking bullishly : i think a couple week pause is in order, and it could get wild hard to beleive the UP phase is over, so after the pasue we move to SInclairs Jan targets IMO though Armstrong is good and he called for a Oct/nov top and 6-8 month correction

#125 dharma

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Posted 08 October 2010 - 09:56 AM

i will be your huckleberry! big volume on the sell side yesterday. venus retrograde today. why oh why am i not satisfied that this thing has topped. there are no divergences in the metals or miner gold indexes. when markets get into runs , reactions are short in time and in some way devastating. this will be a key point to remember when phase 3 takes place. i am buying this am in select cases and w/smaller positions and less cash exposure. if nothing else i tell you exactly what i am doing ! i am exposed not hidden in my trading. i have made about 400% since the 09 lows. and picking up nickels and dimes is part of it. breaking into on a close basis 1358 brings 1460 into play. a day or two here and maybe another shot down and i believe we will push higher. if i am wrong, yesterdays lows are a good stop. i dont use hard stops, the floor traders gobble those up. but more a range, keep losses small and not use too much brain power. silver is the leader here, which says we are in a more speculative phase. no cbs hold silver, to my knowledge. they all hold gold. these are strong hands, of course @300 gold they were sellers! doing that will get you elected prime minister! go figure, screw the populace sell their treasures @the lows and get rewarded. who wants to make sense out of politics? dharma remember the seasonals are strong , the wind is @golds back

Edited by dharma, 08 October 2010 - 09:57 AM.


#126 dharma

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Posted 11 October 2010 - 11:09 AM

on top of everything else, the seasonals are weak this time of year
http://www.seasonalc...ssics_gold.html
the dollar is falling through the floor and is way way way oversold
tenuous @best is this leg of the bull right here.
i am 10%in cash
and that is where i am likely to remain, barring another blast up.
the cycles have topped
if i stretch to a yearly cycle it could stretch to the end of november,
but it could do that and have a correction 1st.
zweig coined a phrase years ago"dont fight the fed"
well in the race to 0 for all currencies, the dollar looks like the stud!
crosscurrents to say the least.
stepping back, its all background noise. its a bull market confirmed last week.
my job is to be w/the trend and keep my hair in tact
dharma

#127 johngeorge

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Posted 11 October 2010 - 11:24 AM

on top of everything else, the seasonals are weak this time of year
http://www.seasonalc...ssics_gold.html
the dollar is falling through the floor and is way way way oversold
tenuous @best is this leg of the bull right here.
i am 10%in cash
and that is where i am likely to remain, barring another blast up.
the cycles have topped
if i stretch to a yearly cycle it could stretch to the end of november,
but it could do that and have a correction 1st.
zweig coined a phrase years ago"dont fight the fed"
well in the race to 0 for all currencies, the dollar looks like the stud!
crosscurrents to say the least.
stepping back, its all background noise. its a bull market confirmed last week.
my job is to be w/the trend and keep my hair in tact
dharma


Thanks dharma for the update. I have been looking at the dollar and, IMO, it appears to be starting to bottom. 77 on the dollar index would be short term support. Jim Rogers recently stated he would not be short the dollar now. Perhaps he is right. Will see. I will add that I have a ST sell on the EUR/USD.

This bull market has been a real winner and looks to me as well that it wants to move higher with a pause in here. Dunno, but, $1400 - $1425 sure looks doable to me by Feb 2011.

Best to you. :)

Edited by johngeorge, 11 October 2010 - 11:28 AM.

Peace
johngeorge

#128 tradermama

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Posted 11 October 2010 - 11:27 AM

i will be your huckleberry!
big volume on the sell side yesterday. venus retrograde today. why oh why am i not satisfied that this thing has topped. there are no divergences in the metals or miner gold indexes. when markets get into runs , reactions are short in time and in some way devastating. this will be a key point to remember when phase 3 takes place. i am buying this am in select cases and w/smaller positions and less cash exposure. if nothing else i tell you exactly what i am doing ! i am exposed not hidden in my trading. i have made about 400% since the 09 lows. and picking up nickels and dimes is part of it. breaking into on a close basis 1358 brings 1460 into play. a day or two here and maybe another shot down and i believe we will push higher. if i am wrong, yesterdays lows are a good stop. i dont use hard stops, the floor traders gobble those up. but more a range, keep losses small and not use too much brain power.
silver is the leader here, which says we are in a more speculative phase. no cbs hold silver, to my knowledge. they all hold gold. these are strong hands, of course @300 gold they were sellers! doing that will get you elected prime minister! go figure, screw the populace sell their treasures @the lows and get rewarded. who wants to make sense out of politics?
dharma
remember the seasonals are strong , the wind is @golds back


Thanks for the update...I was wondering what your latest thoughts were watching how gold tackled that 1141 area you were watching..but I'm seeing tiring on the Euro broke under 1.39...the $ is looking to bounce too ..the question will be how hi...not much is what I figure..i believe you said..typically gold rises up into a full moon..oct 23 is full moon..maybe this time we go down into it..and it reverses up..what I did see today on Kitco as the Euro was weakening..more buyers accumulating gold...maybe it just churns here between 1300-1350 before the next launch?...i was thinking Wednesday is the next POMO schedule..if there is not much there..that could trigger more selling in gold..nothing wrong with profit taking

Thanks again,
TM

#129 tradermama

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Posted 11 October 2010 - 12:39 PM

Oct 21-23 plus/minus 3 days is the next reversal date for gold/silver for Merriman...that's right around that full moon..interesting currencies dont have a reversal till Nov 18th...so maybe we do extend into November for a decent top on gold? TM