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MARKET THOGHTS RUT TRADE


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#1 Mr Dev

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Posted 08 September 2010 - 03:02 PM

since entering this trade 100% short thursday at 628. i have had two targets areas for the RUT and i would really like to hit them ..both. one is lower thus the reason for the counter trend trade..... the other is higher ... thus the will to flip long again ... but at the right time. this is the tricky part. so far things are still in place to achieve this tricky counter trend trade flip strategy and profit from both .... after achieving this i will get short again at the top. trade beyond your best.... your account will thank you for it. :bowtie:

Edited by Mr Dev, 08 September 2010 - 03:04 PM.


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Mr Dev

......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!

#2 CallMeIshmael

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Posted 08 September 2010 - 03:51 PM

since entering this trade 100% short thursday at 628. i have had two targets areas for the RUT and i would really like to hit them ..both.

one is lower thus the reason for the counter trend trade..... the other is higher ... thus the will to flip long again ... but at the right time.

this is the tricky part.

so far things are still in place to achieve this tricky counter trend trade flip strategy and profit from both .... after achieving this i will get short again at the top.

trade beyond your best....

your account will thank you for it. :bowtie:

Dev, you're a great trader. That's obvious. But even great traders can get trapped. Bernamke's a great trader too, so is George Soros and they've both got a whole lot more money than you and I have. And they're trying to trap you (us), Bernanke because as a central banker he instinctively hates speculators, they screw up his schemes, Soros because he is a greedy, power mad narcissist who's out to rule the world.

Like you, I once thought I could play the markets like a violin hitting on every swing. For a while I did and made quite a lot of money doing it. Then I got caught on the wrong side of a swing and foolishly, I had bet the farm. I went broke and spent many years trying to recover. During that time I learned to distrust everything I had learned about the market, all the TA, all the rumors and all the fundamentals. I learned that this is a giant poker game and some of the biggest players can stack the deck and bluff, paint the tape, etc., not forever but long enough to break the little guys and the fools. Now I no longer swing for the fences. And I run for the hills when I find I've made a mistake. Yes, I'm a scaredie cat now. I no longer try to scalp every little swing. Now I lie in wait. I wait for the market to come to me. If it doesn't, I don't trade. A good friend of mine, another great trader like you once told me, "There's always time to lose money." I should have listened.

#3 pramood

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Posted 08 September 2010 - 03:51 PM

since entering this trade 100% short thursday at 628. i have had two targets areas for the RUT and i would really like to hit them ..both.

one is lower thus the reason for the counter trend trade..... the other is higher ... thus the will to flip long again ... but at the right time.

this is the tricky part.

so far things are still in place to achieve this tricky counter trend trade flip strategy and profit from both .... after achieving this i will get short again at the top.

trade beyond your best....

your account will thank you for it. :bowtie:



Dear Dev,

I have been following you for a while and would like to thank you for all your input. I just received privileges to post here and am excited! Another guy whom I follow and who has been pretty spot on like you has different thoughts. He thinks we go to 1130 first-

http://stockcharts.c...t...95&cmd=show[s195685213]&disp=O

Thank you once again.

#4 Mr Dev

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Posted 08 September 2010 - 04:17 PM

CMI do you hear yourself ?

first great traders do not get trapped.

that would be average traders,.. or a newer trader.

great traders don't loose control ... and that's exactly why they are great.

there are many differences between us.... you've obviously been thru the ringer once, struggled and maybe more than others but unfortunately it sounds like
it has put you at a psychologically disadvantage for positioning ahead of the next big move or big win.

as you said you are working against a stacked deck that will not allow you to ever be a bigger winner...(very negative thought process).
but my belief is,.winning is not only for the big boys ... its for the skilled too and maybe that's why i am a winner.

you should think about working beyond your negative gut feelings and develop a stronger traders mind set and self esteem to trade well in the future.
you've said this negative stuff to me before,. ... like you can't win forever ... frankly i don't need to .. i just want to make money instead of lose money..

now are you going to change your negative attitude .... today? or should i just put you on ignore because i'm not going to let your bad luck and bad attitude rub off on me.
your choice my man.
;)


Dev, you're a great trader. That's obvious. But even great traders can get trapped. Bernamke's a great trader too, so is George Soros and they've both got a whole lot more money than you and I have. And they're trying to trap you (us), Bernanke because as a central banker he instinctively hates speculators, they screw up his schemes, Soros because he is a greedy, power mad narcissist who's out to rule the world.

Like you, I once thought I could play the markets like a violin hitting on every swing. For a while I did and made quite a lot of money doing it. Then I got caught on the wrong side of a swing and foolishly, I had bet the farm. I went broke and spent many years trying to recover. During that time I learned to distrust everything I had learned about the market, all the TA, all the rumors and all the fundamentals. I learned that this is a giant poker game and some of the biggest players can stack the deck and bluff, paint the tape, etc., not forever but long enough to break the little guys and the fools. Now I no longer swing for the fences. And I run for the hills when I find I've made a mistake. Yes, I'm a scaredie cat now. I no longer try to scalp every little swing. Now I lie in wait. I wait for the market to come to me. If it doesn't, I don't trade. A good friend of mine, another great trader like you once told me, "There's always time to lose money." I should have listened.


Edited by Mr Dev, 08 September 2010 - 04:19 PM.


.. .. ..
Mr Dev

......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!

#5 Mr Dev

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Posted 08 September 2010 - 04:37 PM

hi pramood,

you are most welcome and glad to see you posting on the board,.. thanks for your question.

please do not draw such a general comparison in opinions because i have not and do not post anything on the SPX targets.
compare apples to apples and tell me where he thinks we go on the RUT and when then you can better compare.

it was late JULY early AUG when one of the other traders here also private messaged me to acknowledge that while all the EW boys were predicting 1130 on the spx to move higher .,,, i was negative and
thus positioned for a down turn to test the JULY 2 lows late August. so i've been on the other side of people.....professional people before.

he is a professional right.?

As far as the RUT i feel we have a 10-13 point drop still likely and then we will bounce .... up to and possibly above 650. however if you get stuck on target practice i call it.
it will mean that a more nimble flexible and more open minded trader will be a more winning trader come year end as he or she positions with the market.

sometimes you can let the market come to you but some folks have to wait longer then others for a pay day. meanwhile the nimble traders cash in and flip and
compound their earnings while the traders that wait wins once,, the nimble trades wins twice,...and sometime more.

so know i don't have to be right,... it is just a technical expectation that is still in play... but again please talk to me about the RUT as i do not follow things i do not ever trade like the SPX.



since entering this trade 100% short thursday at 628. i have had two targets areas for the RUT and i would really like to hit them ..both.

one is lower thus the reason for the counter trend trade..... the other is higher ... thus the will to flip long again ... but at the right time.

this is the tricky part.

so far things are still in place to achieve this tricky counter trend trade flip strategy and profit from both .... after achieving this i will get short again at the top.

trade beyond your best....

your account will thank you for it. :bowtie:



Dear Dev,

I have been following you for a while and would like to thank you for all your input. I just received privileges to post here and am excited! Another guy whom I follow and who has been pretty spot on like you has different thoughts. He thinks we go to 1130 first-

http://stockcharts.c...t...95&cmd=show[s195685213]&disp=O

Thank you once again.


Edited by Mr Dev, 08 September 2010 - 04:41 PM.


.. .. ..
Mr Dev

......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!

#6 SemiBizz

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Posted 08 September 2010 - 04:43 PM

I don't trade or rate $RUT, primarily because I can't get any accurate volume readings to assess it using my primary methodology... been playing around here with IWM as a proxy though, just for testing purposes...

Just out of curiosity, what is your perspective on the chances of a gap fill from 8/10?

I get a mixed signal looking at IWM, with the only reason for that gap to be tested as...maybe... Because they can. :D The rally off the 8/24 low on IWM is like the rest of the equity market for the most part - a bearish upthrust moving higher on progressively lighter volume...

:lol:

Generally I don't trust a derivative signal coming from the likes of IWM when an index volume is available... I'm going to track this data for awhile however and see if I can find some other ways to triangulate.
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#7 alexthered

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Posted 08 September 2010 - 04:43 PM

Thanks for the update Mr Dev.

#8 CallMeIshmael

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Posted 08 September 2010 - 04:50 PM

CMI do you hear yourself ?

first great traders do not get trapped.

that would be average traders,.. or a newer trader.

great traders don't loose control ... and that's exactly why they are great.

there are many differences between us.... you've obviously been thru the ringer once, struggled and maybe more than others but unfortunately it sounds like
it has put you at a psychologically disadvantage for positioning ahead of the next big move or big win.

as you said you are working against a stacked deck that will not allow you to ever be a bigger winner...(very negative thought process).
but my belief is,.winning is not only for the big boys ... its for the skilled too and maybe that's why i am a winner.

you should think about working beyond your negative gut feelings and develop a stronger traders mind set and self esteem to trade well in the future.
you've said this negative stuff to me before,. ... like you can't win forever ... frankly i don't need to .. i just want to make money instead of lose money..

now are you going to change your negative attitude .... today? or should i just put you on ignore because i'm not going to let your bad luck and bad attitude rub off on me.
your choice my man.
;)


Dev, you're a great trader. That's obvious. But even great traders can get trapped. Bernamke's a great trader too, so is George Soros and they've both got a whole lot more money than you and I have. And they're trying to trap you (us), Bernanke because as a central banker he instinctively hates speculators, they screw up his schemes, Soros because he is a greedy, power mad narcissist who's out to rule the world.

Like you, I once thought I could play the markets like a violin hitting on every swing. For a while I did and made quite a lot of money doing it. Then I got caught on the wrong side of a swing and foolishly, I had bet the farm. I went broke and spent many years trying to recover. During that time I learned to distrust everything I had learned about the market, all the TA, all the rumors and all the fundamentals. I learned that this is a giant poker game and some of the biggest players can stack the deck and bluff, paint the tape, etc., not forever but long enough to break the little guys and the fools. Now I no longer swing for the fences. And I run for the hills when I find I've made a mistake. Yes, I'm a scaredie cat now. I no longer try to scalp every little swing. Now I lie in wait. I wait for the market to come to me. If it doesn't, I don't trade. A good friend of mine, another great trader like you once told me, "There's always time to lose money." I should have listened.

Perhaps I put it a little too negatively. I just wanted to illustrate what I believe the market to be, a poker game. And I'm not saying you (or I) can't win. I wouldn't be playing if I thought that. What I am saying is there is a lot of game playing going on here and staying too long in a losing trade may be called brave if you win but if you don't the losses can be hard to make up. That's why I get out quickly when I find myself in a losing trade. I don't have the confidence to wait out a steep draw down. Once burned, twice shy I guess. Yet I wouldn't have lasted this long if I was a perennial loser. I just play it differently than you. I don't try to call every swing. I don't know how to do that. Maybe you do. I just try to have an overall plan and wait for the market to come into my sights. When it does I shoot, sometimes using "Kentucky Windage." Until it does I lie by quietly, trying not to spook the prey. As for the card sharps with the green eyeshades and sleeve garters, I always try to live by the gambler's rule, "If you sit down at the table and don't know who the sucker is, it's you." I just try not to be the sucker.

#9 Mr Dev

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Posted 08 September 2010 - 04:58 PM

well hello from cold and cloudy so cal... feeling alot like nor cal today.

well my thoughts on the RUT which has already attempted to fill at what looks like better than 50% so far with the last gap up high,... day before yesterday are ..
can it close completely ... well yes... will it ... probably ... will it soon probably . just thoughts that echo my trend indicators on all indexes .
however my short term indicators are in conflict. if that helps both your long term and short term work

as you know our Styles in Technical Analysis couldn't be further apart, as i never look at volume.

fwiw i do look at one IWM daily chart with one oscillator on it and it works very well.

:bowtie:




I don't trade or rate $RUT, primarily because I can't get any accurate volume readings to assess it using my primary methodology... been playing around here with IWM as a proxy though, just for testing purposes...

Just out of curiosity, what is your perspective on the chances of a gap fill from 8/10?

I get a mixed signal looking at IWM, with the only reason for that gap to be tested as...maybe... Because they can. :D The rally off the 8/24 low on IWM is like the rest of the equity market for the most part - a bearish upthrust moving higher on progressively lighter volume...

:lol:

Generally I don't trust a derivative signal coming from the likes of IWM when an index volume is available... I'm going to track this data for awhile however and see if I can find some other ways to triangulate.


Edited by Mr Dev, 08 September 2010 - 04:59 PM.


.. .. ..
Mr Dev

......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!

#10 Mr Dev

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Posted 08 September 2010 - 05:04 PM

you got it... not always a guarantee.... just sayin

:bowtie:

Thanks for the update Mr Dev.



.. .. ..
Mr Dev

......trading is basically a simple operation, but you have to be a genius to understand the simplicity.
.....timing,..... is ....everything !
... remember no guessing visit MrDev!