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DANGEROUS DIVERGENCE IN PLAY


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#21 SemiBizz

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Posted 10 September 2010 - 11:53 AM

BTW, although I have a bearish view fundamentally...

I forecast higher prices on a regular basis, many of which I have shared here...

Overall the most important aspect of my work is "DYNAMICS"

The overall dynamic in play HERE is THIS...

The SEMICONDUCTORS are the weakest group.

For the moment there is a very important testing process going on...

Remember, we started September on a POWERFUL MONTHLY GAP UP.

And there is nothing bearish going on until those gaps are filled...


So we have the weakest group, can the market send it reeling or will it get over it?

The most important aspect of the weakness in the semiconductors now is whether or not the gap up on the Monthly gets filled... SOX 307.49 / SMH 24.14
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#22 fib_1618

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Posted 10 September 2010 - 12:14 PM

So we have the weakest group, can the market send it reeling or will it get over it?

Or is this sector's leadership as important as it once was in the 1990's?

Fib

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#23 SemiBizz

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Posted 10 September 2010 - 12:20 PM

So quick look at INTC...

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Not far now from filling that monthly gap 17.60

17.84 - Today's Low

I have INTC Dead Center on my chart screens here...

If that SOX/SMH gap is likely to be filled, we may see INTC fill it's gap first....
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#24 SemiBizz

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Posted 10 September 2010 - 12:23 PM

So we have the weakest group, can the market send it reeling or will it get over it?

Or is this sector's leadership as important as it once was in the 1990's?

Fib


Or how about the Banks (BKX) ?

I guess we don't need them either, eh?

:lol:
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#25 Will

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Posted 10 September 2010 - 12:28 PM

So we have the weakest group, can the market send it reeling or will it get over it?

Or is this sector's leadership as important as it once was in the 1990's?

Fib


Or how about the Banks (BKX) ?

I guess we don't need them either, eh?

:lol:


No dude, you got the logic wrong. Read this:

http://www.marketwat...03?siteid=yhoof

I have about 6-8 computers(servers/desktops/laptops) almost always at home since the last 10 years now. I constantly replace the old ones but I have not got any new ones except the ipad and new i7 laptop over the last couple of years. They all seem to work fine for now and I might not get anything new for another year or more. Add cloud computing to the mix and its going to be much later.

Edited by Will, 10 September 2010 - 12:30 PM.


#26 SemiBizz

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Posted 10 September 2010 - 02:19 PM

So we have the weakest group, can the market send it reeling or will it get over it?

Or is this sector's leadership as important as it once was in the 1990's?

Fib


Or how about the Banks (BKX) ?

I guess we don't need them either, eh?

:lol:


No dude, you got the logic wrong. Read this:

http://www.marketwat...03?siteid=yhoof

I have about 6-8 computers(servers/desktops/laptops) almost always at home since the last 10 years now. I constantly replace the old ones but I have not got any new ones except the ipad and new i7 laptop over the last couple of years. They all seem to work fine for now and I might not get anything new for another year or more. Add cloud computing to the mix and its going to be much later.


Sorry, I guess you didn't read this part of the article...

We are in the midst of a long-term and massive economic slowdown.


BTW,
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#27 SimpleTone

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Posted 11 September 2010 - 02:28 AM

I don't have a strong opinion about this market...I need to see more.. but I will note that before 2007 came 2006, 2005 and 2004 where the sox was range bound as the spx advanced.


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SOX...id=p91043109116

#28 SemiBizz

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Posted 11 September 2010 - 10:43 AM

Now what happened during those years?

Seems like we had something else driving the market...

That driver is dead now.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif
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Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

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#29 Echo

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Posted 11 September 2010 - 10:38 PM

Ok Semi, you are absolutely right to point out the divergence of Semi's with NDX, and SPX for that matter. That is reporting and still appreciated. But care to share what you are forecasting VST for Mon or Tues? Do you think that the divergence will matter and drag the NDX and rest of the market down? Do you think that INTC or SOX will close the gap? Even if you don't care to forecast, if they do close the gap and assuming that it is on the same pathetic volume that we've been having, I assume that that might be grounds for a bullish spring from your point of view? Echo

#30 SimpleTone

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Posted 12 September 2010 - 04:27 PM

""Now what happened during those years? Seems like we had something else driving the market... That driver is dead now."" Like I said, I am agnostic on the market at the moment. We may well be trading range bound. Remember, we are still well off the top from the RE bubble. I expect a slower growth economy and thus more frequent recessions at the very least. This time is different..yet everytime is the same. I can certainly open to a tumble..but my technicals should keep me from a head lopping. Right now the ad line and some other technicals aren't looking for a major bear...yet. we shall see.