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the trend is your friend 2


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#1 dharma

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Posted 12 October 2010 - 09:08 AM

i hesitated to start a new thread. superstitious but, why not. thursday the market confirmed w/new highs across the board. watching closely. not doing anything in here. closing above 1358 the market would tip its hand dharma

#2 tradermama

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Posted 12 October 2010 - 09:56 AM

i hesitated to start a new thread. superstitious
but, why not.
thursday the market confirmed w/new highs across the board.
watching closely. not doing anything in here.
closing above 1358 the market would tip its hand
dharma


The daily $HUI got a SARS Sell signal today..first one since it's run up in Sept..the last time this happened in August it just lasted 2 days and came right back but it is showing some weakness today and now under that resistance breakout of 520..I would think we would need to recapture that 520 area soon ...

Thanks for your new thread..I'll be watching your target close of 1358...


TM

#3 JGUITARSLIM

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Posted 12 October 2010 - 08:33 PM

Nothing fancy here. Support @56 held.
Anything overtly bearish? Looks orderly to me.

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#4 SemiBizz

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Posted 12 October 2010 - 09:06 PM

1. You can check your fibs for .61 extension.

2. The chart is similar to GLD... it's not clear that the Thursday high volume highs are a sign of strength or weakness. So if there is a weakness, it's all about that Thursday Candle Mystery. If you look at the 3 days following we have a flag on GLD. So there is some uncertainty about the direction, but the trend is always favored until proven otherwise.

3. Trend is always your friend, but those of us who have traded gold over the years know that a big retracement is ALWAYS coming at some point.


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#5 dharma

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Posted 13 October 2010 - 09:52 AM

breaking 1358 puts 1460in play. now, i am not saying 1460 is the target, i am saying it puts it in play. which means that 1460 is the death zone for this price cycle. the theory is that previous highs and lows act as the moon does on the tides, pulling and pushing the market. and based on the 253 low for gold, these #vibrations become highlighted. or act as magnets for the market. so here we are into the run! its a lesson for me, a reminder that when the market is into the run, it will do more than expected. it also suggests that the ensuing correction as semi says above, will be larger. buckle up, maybe this move will inspire another bunch of top pickers? dharma

#6 inamosa

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Posted 13 October 2010 - 10:18 AM

Just my humble opinion:
I'm guessing some people laughed when I said this in the other thread, following the big drop last week in gold:

The corrections so far in this move have been $25-40.

We hit close to $1370 overnight and now appear to be attempting at least a ST bottom at ~$1330. That coincides with the top of the channel dharma suggested we would test.

Too early to call the move off the June low over. Let's see what happens from here.


People need to understand that gold is full throttle in a secular bull market. The things that often stop a normal market from rising - such as excessive sentiment, high oscillator readings, cycles, etc. - will not necessarily have an impact on gold during this secular bull period. They may or they may not at any given time and it's up to you to step back, think carefully and figure out when to buy (remember the gold bull will fix timing mistakes on the long side so you can keep a core position regardless) and when to sell (be darn sure you know what you're doing whenever you're selling, though). You can also be smarter about it and maintain a buy and hold philosophy that simply adds or removes margin as you're comfortable doing - as few will be able to outperform such a strategy until the ultimate top of this secular bull is hit (years away). Buy-and-hold is one of the very best strategies in a secular bull market even though absurd for most or all of other types of markets.

Folks, this is how fortunes are made. Just riding one secular-bull-turned-asset-bubble from near its bottom to near its top (all you need to capture is 60-80% of the entire run, and if you capture more, power to you!) is enough to potentially make a fortune that will last you a very long time if not your entire life, if you know what you're doing - and don't forget the fact that you will see at least a few of these types of markets in your lifetime, as every generation repeats similar speculative mistakes to the previous one.

Please realize that most (by far!) of the surprises, for traders, have and will continue come to the upside during secular bull markets like the one gold is in. Secular bulls work like this: at almost any given time (throw a dart at a chart of gold anywhere from 2001 to now - and for some more years yet), odds favor further upside and price the vast majority of the time either heads either straight up or sometimes sideways and then up.

Doesn't anyone remember the tech bubble?? I remember being able to throw a dart at tech charts and being able to make a fortune, regardless of excessive sentiment, poor earnings, or anything else. And, let me say this: there's no fever like gold fever. We're talking about what could develop into the biggest asset bubble we may see in our lifetimes (yes, quite possibly bigger than the tech bubble, real estate bubble, etc.).

And, folks, I'd argue gold hasn't even entered the point where you can start calling it a bubble yet.
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#7 dharma

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Posted 13 October 2010 - 10:35 AM

alysomji-brilliant! the boring route, the one that seems to take intestinal fortitude, makes the most money. i am good trader, they paid me to trade. and every time i sold in 79, i bought back @a higher price. i came back to add 1375 is the next resistance. but alysomjis piece is brilliant. imprint it in your brains. oscillators are great, but they will get you out way to early. likewise for sentiment. this is about , like the great depression, transfer of wealth. do you think the creditors will ever be paid? dharma

#8 JGUITARSLIM

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Posted 13 October 2010 - 11:17 AM

alysomji...You've said what I believe 98%+ investors will NEVER understand. And even those who do, many will unlikely be able to fully capitilize on esp. as volatility picks up. It takes a profound understanding of how bull markets work and experience to ride them out. There maybe one or two posters in this forum who really get that. Team oscillator overbought or RSI above 70 are gonna get left behind confused. We have a tremendous opportunity, one that I am intent on being a part of. I have been 100% long for many months and plan to stay that way, as I know I am not good enough to trade this market. Things are just getting fun. Miners just broke out of a 2.5yr base...anybody notice???

#9 SemiBizz

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Posted 13 October 2010 - 11:18 AM

Isn't this the ALL TIME $XAU HIGH HERE?

I show previous high of 209.27.

B)


(From today's gold forecast)

Tuesday we were able to match Monday's high, but that was it and once again the high came in the middle of the night on very light volume. We didn't quite test the low, but the test lower came on light volume on Tuesday. Overall volume is very light, but price is being relatively maintained. We could see another gap higher per the present trend since this is still a sideways move.


Now if we do see a move higher here to a new high, then we are looking for peak resistance between 1371 -1373. A lot is going to depend on the EUR$ here, and we have given you higher targets that can be tested.


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Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#10 dharma

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Posted 13 October 2010 - 11:42 AM

a hard rains gonna fall! sung by joan baez


jig doesnt post much , but he get it!
dharma