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#1 TechMan

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Posted 22 October 2010 - 09:19 PM

Looking at this flatline intraday chart below, I'm sure we all were today. I didn't even bother to hang around. The market's been trading within a 30-point range for the past 2 weeks.

Posted Image

Many traders that I talked to had given up on trading these major indexes for now. They've instead turned to commodities, currencies, and individual stocks. Trading index options nowadays could be both extremely frustrating and hazardous to one's health and bank accounts.

One of the individual stocks I thought provided some good trading opportunities was INTEL (INTC). I entered short position on 10/13 at 19.61 and exited on 10/19, when it hit that 18.90 support area.

Here's that original post: http://www.traders-t...?...&hl=techman

Now that it's attempting to test that $20 resistance again (blue line), I'll look for the test result to make my next move. If it failed to crack that again, I'll go short once more until it hits that 18.90 support area. And, if it fell below that, with the right volume formation, I'll go very very short...

This is the updated chart of a previously posted "failed" Head & Shoulders formation.

Have a great weekend! Hopefully, both the Average True Range and the Bollinger Band Width will begin to flare up next week.

Posted Image

#2 TechMan

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Posted 22 October 2010 - 10:15 PM

The emotional roller coaster captured on Twitter can predict the ups and downs of the stock market, a new study finds. Measuring how calm the Twitterverse is on a given day can foretell the direction of changes to the Dow Jones Industrial Average three days later with an accuracy of 86.7 percent.

Click here for the story.

Why not? Somebody should try voodoo...

#3 alexthered

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 12:34 AM

Even more simple, just front-run the Fed via triple leveraged longs like TNA on POMO days. Buy the close before POMO, sell at noon the next day.

http://www.zerohedge...nt-run-fed-pomo

On the interplay between the FED and STOCKS: Since Sept 1 when QE was becoming a mainstream focus if you only owned S&P on days when the Fed conducted Open Market Operations (in US Treasuries), your cumulative return is over 11%. in addition, 6 of the 7 times when S&P rallied 1% or more, OMO was conducted that day. this compares to a YTD return of 5.8%. the point: you would have outperformed the market 2x by being long on just the 16 days when this is the important part you knew in advance that OMO was to be conducted. The market's performance on the 19 non-OMO days: +70bps.



#4 dasein

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 04:31 AM

oh dear, since GS was frontrunning POMO, do ya think this is a clue that its gonna change its strategy now?
best,
klh

#5 melonseed

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 07:46 AM

The emotional roller coaster captured on Twitter can predict the ups and downs of the stock market, a new study finds. Measuring how calm the Twitterverse is on a given day can foretell the direction of changes to the Dow Jones Industrial Average three days later with an accuracy of 86.7 percent.

Click here for the story.

Why not? Somebody should try voodoo...



I entered a wager on short @ the closing minutes on NQ 2103. As mention previously, I believe Monday would be a highly likely day for any major pullback to happen (ok I'm tempted to say crash). My opinion is based on G20 talks. Unless they report of chairs being thrown at each other during the meeting...
Trade safe.

#6 fib_1618

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 07:54 AM

I believe Monday would be a highly likely day for any major pullback to happen (ok I'm tempted to say crash)

Impossible...can't be done.

Fib

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Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it. - Benjamin Franklin

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#7 melonseed

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 08:00 AM

I believe Monday would be a highly likely day for any major pullback to happen (ok I'm tempted to say crash)

Impossible...can't be done.

Fib




Based on what? Elections? Which part of it impossible? A chance of USD to start recovering? (genuine question).
Trade safe.

#8 fib_1618

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 08:23 AM

Based on what? Elections? Which part of it impossible? A chance of USD to start recovering? (genuine question).

The current technical condition of the market(s) will not allow it...there's just too much liquidity to absorb a shock. (genuine answer)

Crash like events do not occur out of thin air...certain (vacuum) characteristics must be in place before an "accident" can happen.

Right now, any near term surprises will continue to be to the upside...it's just a matter of physics in the form of momentum.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it. - Benjamin Franklin

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#9 relax

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 08:31 AM

hi fib ;-) what about the flash crash of may - do you think this was simply an exception to what you are saying liquidity was also strong before the flash crash happened cheers ;-

#10 fib_1618

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 08:53 AM

what about the flash crash of may - do you think this was simply an exception to what you are saying

I liken May to that of flying in a plane at 30,000 feet...smooth air, some bumps, and all of a sudden, you hit a sever air pocket without any warning. No amount of analytical evidence (radar) would had predicted this, but it happened anyway.

May did present an exception in all things analytical given its cause, however, there were indications from late March through the month of April that a change in trend was possible (not probable) given the structure of the NYSI...all it took was a sever imbalance to kick it off.

Again...it's a matter of probability and outcome. And in this vein, we just don't have the conditions currently to promote a crash like event.

Fib

I'm including a chart from 4/23 to show how the "Battle Lines were Drawn" on the NYSI...and where we broke to the downside one week later exposing the market to a potential accident.

Posted Image

Edited by fib_1618, 23 October 2010 - 08:59 AM.

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