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#1 dharma

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Posted 29 November 2010 - 11:03 AM

it looks like folks are getting extremely bullish on silver. the story that ted butler et al has been putting out there for years is bearing fruit. but 500 silver, is a bit of a stretch as an understatement. @some point trading silver for gold makes sense. the euro problems are being highlighted, which i see as gold bullish. there is going to be mass qe2 or monetization to pay for this. there are many ways to look @the present picture. i have been thinking that we will correct . december has crosscurrents which will resolve to the bullish side. but not being a forecaster, my strategy is to buy weakness. we are oversold on the hourly charts, w/no divergences. so i am holding off on my buying. shorter time periods are diverging, but i am not biting. andrew jackson is not walking through that door. and the rest of the hoard is not even considering cutting spending. so, the bull will continue higher over time. the saber rattling in korea will continue , but unless there is a severe miscalculation, i doubt it develops into a major confrontation. a small %of the time the market actually does something. the rest of the time is preparation. some of the juniors have been getting mojo, this is normal for this period in time. i do my homework, but which ones become the big winners is a matter of luck dharma

#2 stubaby

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Posted 29 November 2010 - 11:38 AM

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dharma:

I am a chartist first, within the context of a commodity bull. Sometimes you just have to keep positioning into those patterns that, especially during corrective periods, act contrary to the herd.

Last week on 11-22 I added to an existing position in RBY based in both it's daily action and the fact that it was approaching a trendline break. I had done the same kind of probe in early November and was stopped out for a small loss a week later.

stubaby

#3 dharma

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Posted 29 November 2010 - 11:44 AM

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dharma:

I am a chartist first, within the context of a commodity bull. Sometimes you just have to keep positioning into those patterns that, especially during corrective periods, act contrary to the herd.

Last week on 11-22 I added to an existing position in RBY based in both it's daily action and the fact that it was approaching a trendline break. I had done the same kind of probe in early November and was stopped out for a small loss a week later.

stubaby

persistence pays off, good job stubaby
looks like mcewen left a bit too soon
dharma

#4 johngeorge

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Posted 29 November 2010 - 11:48 AM

it looks like folks are getting extremely bullish on silver. the story that ted butler et al has been putting out there for years is bearing fruit. but 500 silver, is a bit of a stretch as an understatement. @some point trading silver for gold makes sense.
the euro problems are being highlighted, which i see as gold bullish. there is going to be mass qe2 or monetization to pay for this. there are many ways to look @the present picture. i have been thinking that we will correct . december has crosscurrents which will resolve to the bullish side. but not being a forecaster, my strategy is to buy weakness. we are oversold on the hourly charts, w/no divergences. so i am holding off on my buying. shorter time periods are diverging, but i am not biting. andrew jackson is not walking through that door. and the rest of the hoard is not even considering cutting spending. so, the bull will continue higher over time. the saber rattling in korea will continue , but unless there is a severe miscalculation, i doubt it develops into a major confrontation.
a small %of the time the market actually does something. the rest of the time is preparation. some of the juniors have been getting mojo, this is normal for this period in time. i do my homework, but which ones become the big winners is a matter of luck
dharma


dharma

Thanks for your thoughts. Printing money is all the CB's know to do and, of course, buy gold. :) I have a sell signal on both daily charts for slv and gld. For ~ solid support I see slv @ 24 and 22.50 with gld @ 1300 and 1288. Will know in the fulness of time.

Best to you.
Peace
johngeorge

#5 johngeorge

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Posted 29 November 2010 - 12:43 PM

Silver bumping against $27 recently and pulling back. I think we need to see silver close above $27 on good volume for it to make another run @$30 which is major overhead resistance.
Peace
johngeorge

#6 uh'sgirl

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Posted 29 November 2010 - 01:30 PM

it looks like folks are getting extremely bullish on silver. the story that ted butler et al has been putting out there for years is bearing fruit. but 500 silver, is a bit of a stretch as an understatement. @some point trading silver for gold makes sense.
the euro problems are being highlighted, which i see as gold bullish. there is going to be mass qe2 or monetization to pay for this. there are many ways to look @the present picture. i have been thinking that we will correct . december has crosscurrents which will resolve to the bullish side. but not being a forecaster, my strategy is to buy weakness. we are oversold on the hourly charts, w/no divergences. so i am holding off on my buying. shorter time periods are diverging, but i am not biting. andrew jackson is not walking through that door. and the rest of the hoard is not even considering cutting spending. so, the bull will continue higher over time. the saber rattling in korea will continue , but unless there is a severe miscalculation, i doubt it develops into a major confrontation.
a small %of the time the market actually does something. the rest of the time is preparation. some of the juniors have been getting mojo, this is normal for this period in time. i do my homework, but which ones become the big winners is a matter of luck
dharma


dharma

Thanks for your thoughts. Printing money is all the CB's know to do and, of course, buy gold. :) I have a sell signal on both daily charts for slv and gld. For ~ solid support I see slv @ 24 and 22.50 with gld @ 1300 and 1288. Will know in the fulness of time.

Best to you.

http://stockcharts.c...amp;a=104541167
I'm not sure. My simplistic chart indicates that SLV is still in the same trading range that it has been in for a couple of months. The bump up from the trendline support today looks bullish to me.

#7 johngeorge

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Posted 29 November 2010 - 01:45 PM

"http://stockcharts.c...amp;a=104541167
I'm not sure. My simplistic chart indicates that SLV is still in the same trading range that it has been in for a couple of months. The bump up from the trendline support today looks bullish to me."

uh'sgirl

Welcome! I certainly agree with your trading range observation. A close above $27 spot silver will negate my daily sell. I am not selling any trading positions today, rather, looking to add on corrections IF/WHEN THEY APPEAR. December is a so-so month seasonally for silver. January is when it really takes off.

Best to you.
Peace
johngeorge

#8 johngeorge

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Posted 30 November 2010 - 10:29 AM

Gold In Euros Breaks Out, As Inedible Metal Hits All Time Highs In Europe
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johngeorge

#9 dharma

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Posted 30 November 2010 - 10:44 AM

we have come a long ways from the psychology of 29 in this country. there are no longer statesman(few any way)there are only politicians. the expedient thing to do is qe. the western world is dancing to that tune. gold is purchased as a store of value. to protect ones purchasing power. if one takes a look @edwards and magee the examples they use for h&s patterns span months. and yet we have a painted h&s looking top in the gold market. needless to say, i have my doubts about the validity of the pattern. until new highs are made or we take out 1315 we are in a trading range. in bull markets, the expectation is for the tr to be broken to the upside. i am in that camp. december is iffy to me. meaning the range will be continued, but january is a bullish story. i am fully positioned. and patiently waiting for the bullish resolution. the gdxj/gdx ratio is favoring the more speculative miners(gdxj) so speculation is dominating. and silver is gaining more than gold, a confirmation of that fact. speculation can continue for awhile longer. if the broads have topped, and start down in earnest , will that affect gold/miners/silver. in my experience its not a good idea to bet against declining broad market. that sucking sound will bring everything along w/it. unless this time is different!? now a wise speculation! bonds are an interesting subject. they offer no to little return and the debts and deficits keep mounting. @some point in the not too distant future i expect to start the rising rate cycle. rising rates are gold bullish. its an admission by govt that inflation is higher than they are paying bond holders(the suckers in the game). i will start to buy bonds when and only when they offer juicy returns on money. in 84 i tried to buy munis into the lows and i couldnt find a dealer that had any inventory. those folks have been getting 15% on their money for almost 30years now+appreciation of the bond. not bad for doing nothing! most of the time markets do nothing. this phase should be short lived here. make no mistake, i think this pause will result in another run. i am not happy about it , but the world is printing away. the party of the deficits and the mcmansion life style will be paid to the piper. i added fvitf and ussif on weakness. and am done for now dharma the 8th has my eye as an astro date and significant market date

#10 johngeorge

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Posted 30 November 2010 - 11:10 AM

David Rosenberg summarizes his latest views on Europe, the EURUSD, risk, volatility, bond curves, gold, geopolitics, oil, a subsidized shopping season courtesy of no mortgage payments, and two years of home inventories.
Peace
johngeorge