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2011 is here


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#1 dharma

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Posted 03 January 2011 - 10:51 AM

well . 2010 ended w/my accounts hitting new highs. thank you. and some of you emailed me and told me of your gains in 2010. i suspect 2011 sees a parabolic for the metals and then a consolidation. dont take your eye off the ball. because the consolidation will end w/another run. picking up spare change in front of the bull makes one feel great, but the big money is riding the bull to its conclusion. i will not waver there. my motto is the old market expression"dont mistake genius for a bull market" it keeps me humble. and hungry. i dont want to miss the ride. today is an astro turn day+-3days. i look for 2011 to provide the bonds w/the completion of their topping process and a rise in rates. the sheep were again herded into the safety of bonds, just in time for them to top. the rumors around municipality failures will cause some investors to panic out of the bonds. its the same script over and over again. bonds have been in a 30year bull. long in the tooth to be buying. but, they welcomed the public gave them a lounge chair and said welcome aboard. hey, i didnt make the game, i only study the charts. start w/a monthly and work your way to a daily and there it is loud and clear.!@the bottom in 81 bonds were going to zero, dont touch em! @the top they are a safe haven. natural gas again working from a monthly to a daily . is in a bottoming pattern. will 2011 be the year for the completion of that process. could very well be. i am going to be patient there as i have 1/3 of what i want. the metals will continue to be my focus until their emotional conclusion. i am always scouring for miners that i want to own after their being brought behind the woodshed. i am comfortably positioned here. waiting for the next leg. silver looks like 35-38 is calling . there is time left in this harmonic. and as long as that is the case i will remain fully invested. dharma the broads appear to be in a broad tr. and are of little/no interest to me. i am just not that smart .

#2 tradermama

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Posted 03 January 2011 - 11:12 AM

well . 2010 ended w/my accounts hitting new highs. thank you. and some of you emailed me and told me of your gains in 2010. i suspect 2011 sees a parabolic for the metals and then a consolidation. dont take your eye off the ball. because the consolidation will end w/another run. picking up spare change in front of the bull makes one feel great, but the big money is riding the bull to its conclusion. i will not waver there. my motto is the old market expression"dont mistake genius for a bull market" it keeps me humble. and hungry. i dont want to miss the ride. today is an astro turn day+-3days.
i look for 2011 to provide the bonds w/the completion of their topping process and a rise in rates. the sheep were again herded into the safety of bonds, just in time for them to top. the rumors around municipality failures will cause some investors to panic out of the bonds. its the same script over and over again. bonds have been in a 30year bull. long in the tooth to be buying. but, they welcomed the public gave them a lounge chair and said welcome aboard.
hey, i didnt make the game, i only study the charts. start w/a monthly and work your way to a daily and there it is loud and clear.!@the bottom in 81 bonds were going to zero, dont touch em! @the top they are a safe haven.
natural gas again working from a monthly to a daily . is in a bottoming pattern. will 2011 be the year for the completion of that process. could very well be. i am going to be patient there as i have 1/3 of what i want.
the metals will continue to be my focus until their emotional conclusion. i am always scouring for miners that i want to own after their being brought behind the woodshed. i am comfortably positioned here. waiting for the next leg. silver looks like 35-38 is calling . there is time left in this harmonic. and as long as that is the case i will remain fully invested.
dharma
the broads appear to be in a broad tr. and are of little/no interest to me. i am just not that smart .

Happy New Year Dharma,
I just got back to my home in ORlando after being at my home in the mountains in GA for 3 weeks..and just read Merriman's forecast book for 2011. What did you think about his outlook for metals this year?...seems like whenever the correction does come for gold and silver..it will be an ugly one...I was just curious on how his astro look lines up with yours. Silver monthly chart appears to be riding the upper resistance. But he does have some high targets on gold that can line up with yours...a big surge expected between jan 25-feb 5 when Mercury transits Saggi...

Thanks

TM

#3 tradermama

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Posted 03 January 2011 - 11:21 AM

well . 2010 ended w/my accounts hitting new highs. thank you. and some of you emailed me and told me of your gains in 2010. i suspect 2011 sees a parabolic for the metals and then a consolidation. dont take your eye off the ball. because the consolidation will end w/another run. picking up spare change in front of the bull makes one feel great, but the big money is riding the bull to its conclusion. i will not waver there. my motto is the old market expression"dont mistake genius for a bull market" it keeps me humble. and hungry. i dont want to miss the ride. today is an astro turn day+-3days.
i look for 2011 to provide the bonds w/the completion of their topping process and a rise in rates. the sheep were again herded into the safety of bonds, just in time for them to top. the rumors around municipality failures will cause some investors to panic out of the bonds. its the same script over and over again. bonds have been in a 30year bull. long in the tooth to be buying. but, they welcomed the public gave them a lounge chair and said welcome aboard.
hey, i didnt make the game, i only study the charts. start w/a monthly and work your way to a daily and there it is loud and clear.!@the bottom in 81 bonds were going to zero, dont touch em! @the top they are a safe haven.
natural gas again working from a monthly to a daily . is in a bottoming pattern. will 2011 be the year for the completion of that process. could very well be. i am going to be patient there as i have 1/3 of what i want.
the metals will continue to be my focus until their emotional conclusion. i am always scouring for miners that i want to own after their being brought behind the woodshed. i am comfortably positioned here. waiting for the next leg. silver looks like 35-38 is calling . there is time left in this harmonic. and as long as that is the case i will remain fully invested.
dharma
the broads appear to be in a broad tr. and are of little/no interest to me. i am just not that smart .


New Moon tomorrow..but the effects can be today or Wedneday for reversals..equities (which just happened) and metals..lines up with Merriman's turn too..I have noticed the moon phases when lining up with Merriman narrows the guess down...so from today to Wednesday could be the reversal we are waiting for
TM

#4 dharma

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Posted 04 January 2011 - 11:09 AM

well here we are in correction mode. today has several astro factors that i thought would lead to upside acceleration. obviously it has not. so where does this lead me. the harmonic that i watch indicates a high late jan/mid feb. i am going w/that. my #s may not be reached on this cycle. although i have not canned the idea completely. one thing that looks apparent to me, and its where i differ from merriman, is 11 is not going to be as easy as 10 was. the powers that be are going to put a damper on the metals and commodities in general. how can they do that? simple change margin requirements for example, raise margins. they actually have many tools @their disposal and i suspect we see them put to use. for the long term the bull market has not been fully expressed, so nothing has changed there. for 11 this will be a year of picking your spots. i do see the potential for oct-year end being bullish. and periods during the year for bullish waves, however the vertical extended move since july will be very difficult to repeat. it will be more of a traders market. my accounts finished the year @new highs. i hate to throw some back. so, i will sit until this cycle ends. and then formulate a strategy based on what the cycle produces. it should produce new highs if not, then i will reevaluate. markets are alive . and always changing. and i have to be prepared to do the same. there are times to be fully exposed and times to have cash to look for opportunities. lets see how this hand plays out. miners are oversold on the hourly charts now. i watching for clues. this move can cause some margin calls. dharma

#5 stubaby

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Posted 04 January 2011 - 11:50 AM

dharma:

I have trendline support here at 1,380 - then much stronger at 1,310-1,320. NAV from the FF board has 1,354 as his "key" level for generating a weekly sell (on hourly sell now and likley daily sell at EOD).

My opinion as always:

I hate corrections: My accounts draw down, some posotions are reduced (via stop-losses) and one's resolve is tested as "fear of failure" tries to take hold.

I love corrections: Individual stocks take "much needed" pauses to refresh their uptrends, future winners (and losers) oftentimes show their hands, weak players and late entries leave the BULL.

'Tis the nature of BULL - to me this feels just like the early December "shakeout" so far. Watching closely, as always.


Cheers,

stubaby

#6 johngeorge

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Posted 04 January 2011 - 12:06 PM

dharma

"this move can cause some margin calls"

Margin debt article below. If the sell off continues it looks to me like those calls could be coming soon.

Best to you

http://pragcap.com/e...orrowing-surges

<<snip>>

"Margin debt climbed by $38.2 billion in September through November, according to data from the NYSE. The increase was the biggest in a three-month period since May-July 2007. November’s $274 billion total, released last week, was the highest since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed more than two years ago.

<<snip>>
Peace
johngeorge

#7 inamosa

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Posted 04 January 2011 - 12:09 PM

Just my opinion: A break below $1360 would confirm that the correction off the Dec. high hasn't ended. That's where I would look to cut some positions, therefore. But, if $1360 does break, I think downside is limited to $1285-1305. As long as the ascending triangle support at ~$1379-81 holds, though, the view that the correction off the Dec. high is over (rather than ongoing) seems to be significantly more likely to me.
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#8 dharma

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Posted 04 January 2011 - 12:14 PM

dharma:

I have trendline support here at 1,380 - then much stronger at 1,310-1,320. NAV from the FF board has 1,354 as his "key" level for generating a weekly sell (on hourly sell now and likley daily sell at EOD).

My opinion as always:

I hate corrections: My accounts draw down, some posotions are reduced (via stop-losses) and one's resolve is tested as "fear of failure" tries to take hold.

I love corrections: Individual stocks take "much needed" pauses to refresh their uptrends, future winners (and losers) oftentimes show their hands, weak players and late entries leave the BULL.

'Tis the nature of BULL - to me this feels just like the early December "shakeout" so far. Watching closely, as always.


Cheers,

stubaby

1358 is the beginning of this price cycle 1341puts us into the last price cycle . confidence is a reflection of market sentiment. when i am feeling bold/too bold, i am about to be shown to the woodshed. i monitor my feelings it is the best reflection of the market sentiment. so far volume is heavy , but its the 1st day of full trading in a while . i will reserve judgement until more time passes. on my 15 min volume chart . the last lows produced heavier volume. but we will need a lower low on less volume to indicate bottoming action.

jg- yes, and the powers that be know that,its what i am referring to . and to produce a double whammy , they can raise margins

#9 dougie

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Posted 04 January 2011 - 01:58 PM

hadik has a 3-6 month top in this time range

#10 tradermama

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Posted 04 January 2011 - 03:48 PM

well here we are in correction mode. today has several astro factors that i thought would lead to upside acceleration. obviously it has not. so where does this lead me. the harmonic that i watch indicates a high late jan/mid feb. i am going w/that. my #s may not be reached on this cycle. although i have not canned the idea completely. one thing that looks apparent to me, and its where i differ from merriman, is 11 is not going to be as easy as 10 was. the powers that be are going to put a damper on the metals and commodities in general. how can they do that? simple change margin requirements for example, raise margins. they actually have many tools @their disposal and i suspect we see them put to use. for the long term the bull market has not been fully expressed, so nothing has changed there. for 11 this will be a year of picking your spots. i do see the potential for oct-year end being bullish. and periods during the year for bullish waves, however the vertical extended move since july will be very difficult to repeat. it will be more of a traders market.
my accounts finished the year @new highs. i hate to throw some back. so, i will sit until this cycle ends. and then formulate a strategy based on what the cycle produces. it should produce new highs if not, then i will reevaluate. markets are alive . and always changing. and i have to be prepared to do the same. there are times to be fully exposed and times to have cash to look for opportunities. lets see how this hand plays out.
miners are oversold on the hourly charts now. i watching for clues. this move can cause some margin calls.
dharma


Dharma...from Kitco News why the selling:

Kitco News) -- Much of the selling pressure in gold Tuesday appeared to largely come from those who had recently entered the market, says John Howlett, division vice president with Mitsubishi International Corp. He described a “mass exodus” from commodities generally, with most showing weakness for the day. “The biggest gainers of recent trading were the biggest losers today,” he says. “That indicates the selling wasn’t from the core bull constituency, but the recent longs. There was supposedly one big order from Europe that got the ball rolling – a big buyer of January 1250 gold puts in substantial amounts. But the same entity was also buying gold outright near the lows.”
http://www.kitco.com...ts20110104.html

TM