59 replies to this topic

[dharma]

stubaby- to me too. and hui will go to @least 850 soon. but i have to play what the market gives. my core which is @this point 85% of my position will remain untouched. i have many issues that are up 2-300% and that is so becuase i havent touched them for years. its the margin and the other 15% that i play w/. everything in my work points higher. but here is the market dharma

[stubaby]

Recapture 1,380 - then 1,385 and "game on"!



stubaby

[bbones]

breaking the 1358 would be the sign that we are going into a larger correction and a break of 1341 would confirm that.

Apologies for the Newbie question but just starting to learn tech. analysis.

Last night gold broke thru 1358 but bounced back. I would assume closing below 1358 would be more significant than dipping below.

Is there a difference....or is a break considered a break? Probably not a set answer and I would assume much depends on the strength of the change.
How do you factor in market manipulation....which again I would assume can throw a curve ball to ones analysis.

Been lurking here for quite some time......much of it still goes way over my head.....but ......slowly there may be a light at the end of the tunnel

bbones

[dharma]

personally i dont do anything on dips, closes is a truer tell in my opinion. this morning the market came into a low risk buy zone. i trade based on the market not based on forecasting. can we come out of our bunkers now, is the low in? damned if i know. it very well could be. the declines structure from the highs, looks corrective. the 17th is the 1st date i have for a turn. the lows yesterday were w/higher rsi readings. it is not certain. the traders graveyards are full of folks who tried to call tops and bottoms and put their money where there mouth was. its a tough biz. in bull markets the protocol is to buy weakness and sell strength. the only time that changes is when in a parabolic. since 1913 w/the inception of the fed the dollar has slowly , but steadily lost pp. its not where i want to hold my money as a store of value. gold, the enemy of fiat, has had bull and long bear markets , but from fdrs $20 gold price , then confiscating the publics gold raising the price to $35 overall it has appreciated. until todays price. bernake and geithner are shills for the banksters and they seem bent on destroying the buck. be very careful out there. we are still in treacherous waters. trying to pick up some change here dharma

[stubaby]

breaking the 1358 would be the sign that we are going into a larger correction and a break of 1341 would confirm that.

Apologies for the Newbie question but just starting to learn tech. analysis.

Last night gold broke thru 1358 but bounced back. I would assume closing below 1358 would be more significant than dipping below.

Is there a difference....or is a break considered a break? Probably not a set answer and I would assume much depends on the strength of the change.
How do you factor in market manipulation....which again I would assume can throw a curve ball to ones analysis.

Been lurking here for quite some time......much of it still goes way over my head.....but ......slowly there may be a light at the end of the tunnel

bbones

bbones:

I'll give your questions a shot - (questions and learning are part of all of our lives and if you don't ask ... well you know the answer to that)

For me it's a matter of weighting and of course the time-frame you are trading in - a 'dip" below or above a trendline or key price level carries less weight than a daily close below or above, which carries less weight than a weekly close below or above, which carries less weight than a monthly close below or above.

Market manipulation is part of the "game" - anticipating when and where it will occur is about a 50/50 proposition, but "you know it when you see it"


GoodLuck,

stubaby

[inamosa]

Just my opinion: I for one believe we will be lower 3-6 weeks from now. I'm looking for $1285-1305 and potentially as low as $1260 if the selling pressure gets really bad. On silver, probably $21-24, and I would think at least $25. Maybe I'm wrong but, sentiment aside, I see quite a bit of evidence to support my case and that's the best I can do. My core position is always there in case I'm wrong, of course. For any of you that have been reading my posts, you know I've been expecting a gold correction since around mid-December (I had mentioned that I had freed up some cash by selling at ~$1400 back then) - hoping for a move of gold back to near its 200-day or 150-day SMA. When the Dollar started breaking down recently, I assumed that the gold correction would be cut unusually short (this commonly happens before parabolic moves, but not always) and so I started accumulating again. However, since then, gold has broken the pivotal $1360 level and the Dollar has broken up rather than down from its descending triangle - meaning it looks like the advance was a fakeout. I've been freeing up some more cash into the strength this morning (gold is at $1376 as I write, after having hit $1352.70 overnight) because I want to make sure I have at least some cash to buy the low I'm expecting 3-6 weeks from now.

Edited by alysomji, 07 January 2011 - 11:00 AM.

[tradermama]

personally i dont do anything on dips, closes is a truer tell in my opinion.
this morning the market came into a low risk buy zone. i trade based on the market not based on forecasting. can we come out of our bunkers now, is the low in? damned if i know. it very well could be. the declines structure from the highs, looks corrective. the 17th is the 1st date i have for a turn. the lows yesterday were w/higher rsi readings. it is not certain. the traders graveyards are full of folks who tried to call tops and bottoms and put their money where there mouth was. its a tough biz. in bull markets the protocol is to buy weakness and sell strength. the only time that changes is when in a parabolic. since 1913 w/the inception of the fed the dollar has slowly , but steadily lost pp. its not where i want to hold my money as a store of value. gold, the enemy of fiat, has had bull and long bear markets , but from fdrs $20 gold price , then confiscating the publics gold raising the price to $35 overall it has appreciated. until todays price. bernake and geithner are shills for the banksters and they seem bent on destroying the buck. be very careful out there. we are still in treacherous waters. trying to pick up some change here
dharma

Full moon the 19th too!...Unless we get over 1380 and stay there..I think we will chop around here to find a bottom..but so far..so good...as 1350 held...Does your cycle change to the old cycle due to us falling under 1358 or must it close under 1358 for that to change? We do have weekly sars sells on gold and silver that that hasn't happen since this august run...I would expect next week to be consolidating which lines up to your turn...I read a couple of cycle people calling this week or next week a low...like a 13 month low? I'm not a cycle person but will note things like that.

Thanks Dharma.
TM
P.S..seems like there was rotating out of the equities back to metals at the same time..so maybe there is a bottom here.

[dharma]

first off, it is good to be associated w/you guys/gals. people who think for themselves survive. followers get taken to the cleaners. i rely on my feelings to gauge market sentiment. w/yesterdays drubbing i was feeling low. which put a smile on my face. the job #s were more bs. the labor market is going to remain tough for years to come. and qe3,4,5 etc will not turn it around. traderama- i follow price cycles , as gann did. and time cycles , as he did. and the astro influences. , as he did too. the #s i give are price cycles they are based solely on price. his theory was/is the lows and highs (using an analogy)are like the moon pulling on the tides. so in bulls i use the lows and in bears i use the highs. those marks(lows/highs are significant) its why they were made. those #s have power and exert pressure pulling /and pushing the market. as the moon does on the tides. so price cycles are significant. having used them since i took my 1st gann course w/phyllis kahn and billy jones i studied the technique and having watched it for almost 30years, i am convinced of its significance. now the #s are not brick walls, momo can carry a little ways through them, but their influence will exert a snap back. as i wrote 1341 ends the last cycle and 1325 is a death zone. can the market break below 1325 , absolutely, but there will be #s there to exert their influence. i work on probabilities . the market inspite of its manipulations is responding to past influences. the trend has the final say, the manipulators get overrun-sooner or later. in 80 the banksters got overrun. then they changed the rules(fact)only selling of silver allowed on the exchanges , no buying allowed. well after the parabolic , it was a one way ticket -down out of gas here. back to work i hope that helps dharma

[dougie]

sure flet like we needed a blow off move to cap this run, which we never got. chart looks to me like this could all be a 4rth wave correction still. Hadki has a pretty good cycle record fro gold to my recollection and he thinks we may have turned down for up to 6 months here sure would be in the interests of the banksters to have a whiff of deflation

[inamosa]

sure flet like we needed a blow off move to cap this run, which we never got.

Dougie, after the low I expect in gold at the numbers I gave in my post above (which we probably won't see for another 3-6 weeks), I expect gold will see a parabolic move.

This is partly because we should see a crisis in the dollar within the next 6 months and probably within the next 3 months, if the past is any guide.