Jump to content



Photo

The Ord Oracle 5/13/4


  • Please log in to reply
No replies to this topic

#1 TTHQ Staff

TTHQ Staff

    www.TTHQ.com

  • Admin
  • 8,597 posts

Posted 13 May 2004 - 12:37 PM

Posted Image
Posted Image

*Look for Tim's article in the May issue of the "Stock and Commodities Magazine".

For 30 to 90 days horizon: Flat.
Short term trades, one day to one-week horizon:Long SPX on 3/12 at 1097.26.

We have "800" phone update that cost $2.00 a min. and billed to a credit card. Call (1-970-224-3981) for sign up. We update Eastern time at 9:45; 11:30; 1:30; 3:30 and 4:00. Question? Call me (402) 486-0362.

What to expect now:
Today the S&P cash index tested the previous low set on May 10 at the 1080 area and then closed above it with volume shrinking about 16%, creating a bullish signal. We sent out a special email today announcing this buy signal setup and we did go long on the close today at 1085.50. The McClellan Oscillator closed May 10 at a -366 and a very bullish sign. The last time this reading neared this level came at the September 2001 level (the 9/11 time frame) and in July 2002 (Major bottom in the Market). Therefore, It appears something significant may be going on here. Option expiration week is next week and that time frame has a bullish bias. We don’t like to take trades the Wednesday, Thursday and Friday before expiration week but things appear line well. There could be some backing and filling before the trend starts up. Our first upside target will be the previous swing high near the 1125 level.

Nasdaq Composite:
A "Three Gap Play" may have developed on the Nasdaq starting from the 5/5 high near the 1968 level down to the may 10 low near the 1900 level, with the exhaustion gap appearing on May 10. This pattern suggests the Nasdaq may go back and fill the first gap near the 1968 level. The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator closed below -204 on May 10 and in an oversold level. The May 10 low tested the previous low set on March 22 with volume shrinking only 5% and only a neutral condition. The Nasdaq re-test of previous lows only came in neutral and for the moment we will stay flat the Nasdaq.

Posted Image

GOLD Market:
Patience will be needed in the Gold market. Whispernumbers.com came out with a bullish reading of 4.3% bulls on their last report dated May 5and in extreme bullish reading for gold. We will cover each gold stock we hold this week and today's report is on CBJ with the summary below. For the XAU the "Price Momentum Oscillator" is just starting to bend up on the Daily charts and therefore, the worst is probably over. The monthly pattern on the XAU remains bullish.

We added CBJ (3/31/04) at 3.13 and a position on (4/21/04) at 2.65 for an average of 2.89. CBJ is holding strong. Long NXG (3/22/04) at 2.53 and (4/14/04) at 2.09 for average 2.26. NXG could test the low of 12/11/03 at the 1.58 level before heading higher. Long BGO at 3.75 and (4/14/04) at 2.97 for average at 3.36. Long GSS 1/2 position at 6.40 on 3/18. Long (4/7/04) PMU at 1.19 and (4/14/04) at 1.05 for average 1.12. PMU should hold the next "ICE" level at the .60 range. PMU hit there May 3 and left a gap. PMU may fill the gap first before heading higher.

The McClellan Oscillator closed at -366 on May 10 and in an area where previous intermediate term lows have occurred.

Posted Image


The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed today at .35. This indicator is also bullish for the short term.

Posted Image


“Five day ARMS” indicator is at 4.39. This indicator is back to neutral territory.

Posted Image

Conclusion: Long SPX (5/12/04) at 1097.26Longer Term Trend: Starting to look more bullish.