41 replies to this topic

[Echo]

Cool Selecto. That's the other way to do it, now that the cost of a minute on the cloud is down to about the cost of two 30min commercials during the Superbowl.

Now for other ideas, I like to look at how far from the 200 ema human limits of greed have historically run before the human desire to collect profits and run for the exits before the profits evaporate overrides greed. I tie it into how long before a visit to the 50ema is undertaken. This can be established using macd (1,200,1) and (1,50,1). Now apply this to the most liquidity sensitive index, RUT and you can see that we have not gotten past the 200 ema much more than 50-75 points historically and the internet bubble peaked at 127, Jan 2004 at 100 and April 2010 at 123. We got up to 115 here in Dec 2010 and I started shorting the highs in Rut and taking profits on decent downdrafts. Will continue to do it hit and run whenever the macd get closer to 110 until the IT is clearly down and one can more confidently hold a swing short. I think that time is near mainly because the time RUT spends without checking back with the 50ema is usually no more than 5-6 months and we are getting there as seen in the bottom panel. This chart is no joke. No BS.




Note however after correcting the last week, Rut could enjoy a 25 pt 3% upday now before hitting 115 above the 200ema which is why I took profits on the TZA on the drop on Friday. Tops take time so better to reload higher up or better yet, go long at S2 pivots like Darris until the IT top is confirmed by a sell signal on the daily charts. By some measures, RUT may be there on the daily charts, but safer when SPX gets there too.

The only question is whether QE2 will redefine the limits of human greed.
Doc

[Echo]

On a shorter timeframe, I noted the evolution of this chart since the end of Dec.

[selecto]

Yea, we are there on that. "Sells" against the uptrend (17 ema) have by and large been l-a-m-e.

[tuffy88]

I think more money has been left on the table by trading called market tops while the broad market was in an uptrend, as it is now, than by any other method of trading. Far better to say that no one knows when the market will top out: just wait until it does, then trade AFTER the market has turned down. Charles

[tradesurfer]

I think more money has been left on the table by trading called market tops while the broad market was in an uptrend, as it is now, than by any other method of trading. Far better to say that no one knows when the market will top out: just wait until it does, then trade AFTER the market has turned down.

Charles

larry pesavento has picked some great tops and bottoms in the market using astro.. he nailed the march 9th, 2009 low exactly.

[Echo]

Happy New Year Charles. Couldn't agree with you more. Top/bottom picking is best left to intellectual challenges rather than hard earned cash and that could be a new years resolution for many I bet. I'll be back up to my hometown Chicago for a weekend soon. Have to unpack my Arctic parka. Cheers, Doc

[Echo]

I think more money has been left on the table by trading called market tops while the broad market was in an uptrend, as it is now, than by any other method of trading. Far better to say that no one knows when the market will top out: just wait until it does, then trade AFTER the market has turned down.

Charles

larry pesavento has picked some great tops and bottoms in the market using astro.. he nailed the march 9th, 2009 low exactly.

So did I, lol. Too bad I didn't stay long the entire time since then. http://www.traders-t...l=nya trendline

Doc

[thespookyone]

Well Doc, there is certainly a way ro pick a top here, and there is a small problem, as well. As the stock market is priced in numbers-there probably is a perfect truth there(odds wise). Inside mathematics there are many perfect truths-outside very few. My take is that with a perfect mathematical formula that includes all legitimate variables -you could come very close, if not absolutely nail, the top. The small problem is humans trade the market (although considerably less than the machines), and there is little perfect truth in humans. My thesis has been that the markets are more predictable now that machines basically controll it. That considered, the machines, however programmed to do so-have trouble reacting to things that "don't make sense"-and can create a wild swing here or there trying to do so(we blame those events on humans with fat fingers). It's the reason that computers and machines haven't taken over the planrt-we can't truly yet teach them to be "us". Humans can have an incredible reactive skill to situations that have gone wrong. Our perceptions can be incredibly multilayered and interactive. We can "invent", what is not yet here. Michelangelos' take was that the most incredible inventions came from a thought that shot through an empty mind from out of nowhere-and you then "catch it", and I fully agree. I was approached by a large horseracing software manufacturer in the late 1980's when I was betting horses for a living. I was given the horse race winner picking software program they were developing. It contained a ton of artificial intelligence features, and was self teaching-to a point. I fed it the daily racing form info every day, it picked the races, then I fed it the actual results. At the same time, before the races every day, I would give the company my selections for the same races. The computer program would see how it did, and I'd leave the computer on 12 hours a night, so the program could train and retrain itself. It was getting better, somewhat, as a couple months went by. Funny thing was, as a silly human-I was crushing it-day in, day out. The next obvious step was to provide the computer with my intel, which I tried to do. It taught me something I'll never forget-you can't fully do it-we are much too complex. And that, makes us BETTER than the machines. The largest bets I won in my racing carrer were due to minute observations, nothing complex-or even mathematical in nature. When I look back on those 2 years of my life-I wonder why I beat myself senseless with the very complex math formulas I employed daily-I suppose because I was brought up to think that was the answer. The thing that truly paid there, here in the market, and in nearly every financial endeavor is seeing something clearly,first, that others do not see-then seizing the moment. And with my pontificating done, I'll stay with the very simple formula I used a week or so ago to calculate the top-to me, it lies at 1291.33 cash, until proven otherwise

[Echo]

And with my pontificating done, I'll stay with the very simple formula I used a week or so ago to calculate the top-to me, it lies at 1291.33 cash, until proven otherwise

That will work Spooky as it within the 4% too, lol.
By the way, I hope Roger got out of this trade: http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=439720

[iloli way]

We know now how lethal 'sickle flag' can be: SIMPLY SICKO !


How about this one needs a pole? (i got it! how about : SIMPLY ECHO!)


That 'Bare-Bate Semi-automatic' gave away...after fooled for few seconds.

Great post!

Edited by iloli, 09 January 2011 - 09:06 PM.