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#41 IndexTrader

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Posted 10 February 2011 - 02:43 PM

O.K. going strictly on the close of the 3rd candlesticks after 2 consecutive closes above 21 EMA, I still don't see how it'd turn out to be flat or profitable. I got a nearly 7-point loss still.


Long 10:35 = 1,323.17 (------)
Short 11:20 = 1,318.04 (-5.13)
Long 12:45 = 1,319.68 (-1.64)
Short 14:00 = 1,318.68 (-1.00)
Long 15:15 = 1,317.86 (+0.82)

Total loss = 6.95

In my original post, I didn't consider that the trader would close this trade at the end of the session. Now, let's do that.

Closed all positions at end of session @ 1,320.88

Total loss = 3.93

And, I still have a loss of nearly 4 points.


I guess you're not reading my posts. The trades are as of the 2nd bar, not the third bar. 5 seconds before the 2nd bar closes you send in a market order. There is no reason at all to wait an additional bar, and in fact, your losses that you calculate all come from this waiting.

Here they are again:

L at 1323 just before 10:30.
S at 1319.80 about 11:15
B at 1319.50 about 12:40
S at 1320 about 1:50
B at 1318 about 3:15
S at 1321 at the close (he is daytrading he said)

Trade 1= -3.20
Trade 2= +.30
Trade 3= +.50
Trade 4= +2.00
Trade 5= +3.00

Total= +2.60


IT

Edited by IndexTrader, 10 February 2011 - 02:52 PM.


#42 TechMan

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Posted 10 February 2011 - 03:25 PM

I guess you're not reading my posts. The trades are as of the 2nd bar, not the third bar. 5 seconds before the 2nd bar closes you send in a market order. There is no reason at all to wait an additional bar, and in fact, your losses that you calculate all come from this waiting.


Now I see what you're saying.

But, there's reason to wait for an additional stick. Technically, we just don't know until it's settled below or above the EMA. Even just a few seconds of volatility could nullify the buy or sell signal.

All right, I think I'm more than done with this, aren't you?

Back to the closing, and not a second sooner… :-)

#43 IndexTrader

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Posted 10 February 2011 - 03:58 PM

I guess you're not reading my posts. The trades are as of the 2nd bar, not the third bar. 5 seconds before the 2nd bar closes you send in a market order. There is no reason at all to wait an additional bar, and in fact, your losses that you calculate all come from this waiting.


Now I see what you're saying.

But, there's reason to wait for an additional stick. Technically, we just don't know until it's settled below or above the EMA. Even just a few seconds of volatility could nullify the buy or sell signal.

All right, I think I'm more than done with this, aren't you?

Back to the closing, and not a second sooner… :-)


One last point: the way the signal is generated according to how Fib laid out the rules, is that it requires two closes above or below the EMA. So for instance, if it gives the signal, and then in the next few seconds fluctuated back below the EMA, that doesn't nullify the signal. The only thing that nullifies a signal is 2 closes below the EMA.

The only reason to wait would be if the price is exactly on the line and the signal is not clear. Mostly I doubt that is going to happen two bars in a row, and it didn't happen yesterday.

Now, I'm done too. :lol:

BTW, I would never use a system like this personally. I'm just interpreting fibs system.

IT

#44 fib_1618

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Posted 10 February 2011 - 04:17 PM

The only thing that nullifies a signal is 2 closes below the EMA.

That would be correct...above or below the EMA would constitute a stop and reverse.

I would never use a system like this personally.

Simplistic as it is, it allows the scalper to let the market come to him instead of chasing it.

Everyone has their own plan and their own level of tolerance. Mine is just one.

Thanks for the discussion.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it. - Benjamin Franklin

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#45 TechMan

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Posted 10 February 2011 - 04:18 PM

BTW, I would never use a system like this personally.


Nor I.

....that it requires two closes above or below the EMA. So for instance, if it gives the signal, and then in the next few seconds fluctuated back below the EMA, that doesn't nullify the signal.


Yes, but only after the 2 closes are settled. If you had pulled the trigger a few seconds prior to the settlement of that 2nd 5-min period (as you said), then the volatility could nullify the signal.

And, that's really it for me.