37 replies to this topic

[NAV]

There were postings over the last couple of weeks by many, on the obvious "The trend is up", when we were trading close to the top tick. So what's the read on the trendo-meter now? Is it still up ? If so, would you buy the dip here ? If not here, where would you ? Is it down ? If so, are you already short ? If not, where would you short ? Or if you are a one sided bull-only trader, would you go to cash ? If you dynamically need to determine a entry point for long or short, would you let us know in real-time ? Or if you belong to the group, which says "I have no clue", then the honesty is appreciated !. My hourly is on a sell, but the daily missed the sell by a few ticks. I will update here, if my daily goes to a sell. Let's see how many will stick their necks out and answer a honest trading question.

[rkd80]

The VIX is very telling here IMO and the statistical probability of a rally is here. Only twice in the past 2 years does the vix continue to push up on it's BB extremes and that lead to prolonged corrections, every other time (I count 6) the market rallied. So right now it seems that going long is the right move, if today is a continuation day then a correction is on. I am not brave enough to go long tomorrow, but I will not short.

[SemiBizz]

One day does not make a new trend. Show me a gap down and another 40 SPX pts down to support on stronger volume. Then we can begin to talk about trend change.

[IYB]

Nothing's changed. External negative event clobbered a market in uptrend and market pulled back - big pullback because the event was/is big. Meantime the trend remains up. Was a buyer today, and will buy more tomorrow. That what you're askin' NAV? Regards, D

[NAV]

Nothing's changed. External negative event clobbered a market in uptrend and market pulled back - big pullback because the event was/is big. Meantime the trend remains up. Was a buyer today, and will buy more tomorrow. That what you're askin' NAV? Regards, D

IYB,

Yes. Thanks for answering.

You are one of the few on this board who candidly posts what you think and what you do in response to your thinking. I for one have always appreciated that trait of yours. Good trading to you !

[vitaminm]

spx.projects...1302 partially oversold......may bounce to 1318........1324+...........S@1312 es...up

[Gary Smith]

I posted Friday during the trading day I was lightening up in equities because the tape looked sick and then last night I definitely would not be buying any dip today because it was a bull fest on the forum over the weekend and everyone was exalting the trend is your friend. I haven't looked at the the Merrill proxy index for junk bonds tonight but looking at my account it was one of the few days junk bonds did not hit yet another all time high, albeit the decline today in junk was miniscule. I think there may be some bull complacency on this dip but otherwise haven't a clue what is next. I sold some junk bonds today to be safe and presently in a conservative mode at 7.5% in equities, 48% junk bond funds, and 44.5% cash. I may add back some equities tomorrow on a dip but nothing heavy. It has been a great run and I abhor giving back gains but still think the bull has a lot of life left. Would like though to see the bears take over again here like the past four months. Hiking season is starting and not sure I want to get back to the pedal to metal type of trading where every single dollar of my net worth is at risk.

[redwraith]

There were postings over the last couple of weeks by many, on the obvious "The trend is up", when we were trading close to the top tick. So what's the read on the trendo-meter now?

Is it still up ? If so, would you buy the dip here ? If not here, where would you ?

Is it down ? If so, are you already short ? If not, where would you short ? Or if you are a one sided bull-only trader, would you go to cash ?

If you dynamically need to determine a entry point for long or short, would you let us know in real-time ?

Or if you belong to the group, which says "I have no clue", then the honesty is appreciated !.

My hourly is on a sell, but the daily missed the sell by a few ticks. I will update here, if my daily goes to a sell.


Let's see how many will stick their necks out and answer a honest trading question.

My trendo-o-meter gave a sell... so I shorted the close and I'm scared to death. My only comfort is that the difference between today and the last big sell-off on Jan 28 is that we blew threw a couple lines of support which should act as resistance now.

[NAV]

I posted Friday during the trading day I was lightening up in equities because the tape looked sick and then last night I definitely would not be buying any dip today because it was a bull fest on the forum over the weekend and everyone was exalting the trend is your friend. I haven't looked at the the Merrill proxy index for junk bonds tonight but looking at my account it was one of the few days junk bonds did not hit yet another all time high, albeit the decline today in junk was miniscule. I think there may be some bull complacency on this dip but otherwise haven't a clue what is next. I sold some junk bonds today to be safe and presently in a conservative mode at 7.5% in equities, 48% junk bond funds, and 44.5% cash. I may add back some equities tomorrow on a dip but nothing heavy. It has been a great run and I abhor giving back gains but still think the bull has a lot of life left. Would like though to see the bears take over again here like the past four months. Hiking season is starting and not sure I want to get back to the pedal to metal type of trading where every single dollar of my net worth is at risk.

Thanks Gary.

[tommyt]

Let's see how many will stick their necks out and answer a honest trading question. First pullback off of fresh highs = nothing so far. We have/have had a number of divergent situations set up on the bear side in the last few months, with little result. We have the same again, MOsc, MACD, are ripe...but need more. POMO, the invisible hand, is responsible. Markets are forward looking, and will top before POMO ever ends. The market will start building its top now, too early to be big short. Nailed this drop with a short on expo Friday, but cut it down with nice $$$ today. Bull still gets the nod, SPX 1300 and 1335-43 for now.