37 replies to this topic

[vitaminm]

Gary,

Which junks did you sell?
Do you like GNMA (vfiix type)funds at this level?

I posted Friday during the trading day I was lightening up in equities because the tape looked sick and then last night I definitely would not be buying any dip today because it was a bull fest on the forum over the weekend and everyone was exalting the trend is your friend. I haven't looked at the the Merrill proxy index for junk bonds tonight but looking at my account it was one of the few days junk bonds did not hit yet another all time high, albeit the decline today in junk was miniscule. I think there may be some bull complacency on this dip but otherwise haven't a clue what is next. I sold some junk bonds today to be safe and presently in a conservative mode at 7.5% in equities, 48% junk bond funds, and 44.5% cash. I may add back some equities tomorrow on a dip but nothing heavy. It has been a great run and I abhor giving back gains but still think the bull has a lot of life left. Would like though to see the bears take over again here like the past four months. Hiking season is starting and not sure I want to get back to the pedal to metal type of trading where every single dollar of my net worth is at risk.

[viccarter]

I am short via heavy TZA positions. One is in the 14.80's in little account. The other is 14.60's TZA in big account after a quarter added at $12.79 this morning. I was caught wrong-footed back in early Feb. when I sold. However, my mental confidence stayed high, since I executed my plan exactly. But wrong no doubt. Given where we are, I feel like we can go lower. I wouldn't have stubbornly leaned on this short back in Sept., Oct. Nov or early Dec of last year, but given the monthly levels in RUT in relation to what has happened in the past. I made the decision to dig into and position trade my short when then market moved against me. I never once added to the position, but hit it with a 1/4 add this morning, when I saw her break and retrace. I employed the same strategy with CMG back in Dec. for nice profits. I fully expect some replacement with the strength of today's sale, but if I were flat, I certainly wouldn't have bought today's action. Perhaps it will prove to be the most prudent course of action, however, I believe buying huge breakdowns like this is a fool's game and will eventually hurt you bad irregardless of how it works out this time. So for now, I stay short, as I must for I am underwater. Today worked off a lot of overbought conditions and this is disturbing to shorts. I will continue to watch and evaluate several factors including of course 795 area price action if it gets there, the RUT McOscillator if it moves to oversold levels (my internal levels), the RSI 5 on the RUT ISSUES ABOVE 50DMA and 200DMA. Should these move into my OS areas, I will close the positions regardless of price, profit or loss. That is the plan. Staying short for now.

[Darris]

Risk would appear to have re-entered the market place today. POMO has some competition now. The money flow intensity meter signaled a major alert today. The last reading in the bear market was Dec 1st, 2008, and then the next reading was April 27th, 2010. This is the 1st reading since August 2010. Simple interpretation. The 1st ones off the top are initiation, and the latter ones into a well defined move down are the capitulation signals. One example of a short cycle after a signal was Feb 27th, 2007. This signal also occurred on Nov 1, 2007. I say the next ES top to short will be on Thursday or early Friday around 1330 March, as now, weekend event risk will be tradeable. Free money Monday's will only start on Sunday nights as the front running is probably over now.

[viccarter]

want to note: in a 10% down move that happens rapidly, nothing works in terms of TA -- except holding short. I do not believe that indicators can predict a 10% down move. They can tell you that it is probable that it WILL COME, but shorter term charts cannot adequately time the beginning of it. Nor can typical patterns. I realize the levels we have in terms of BB on the VIX or RVX, and that usually means some type of move higher -- except when it doesn't and the volatility moves higher. Only time will tell which type this is -- but we shall know soon enough.

[Gary Smith]

Gary,

Which junks did you sell?
Do you like GNMA (vfiix type)funds at this level?

I posted Friday during the trading day I was lightening up in equities because the tape looked sick and then last night I definitely would not be buying any dip today because it was a bull fest on the forum over the weekend and everyone was exalting the trend is your friend. I haven't looked at the the Merrill proxy index for junk bonds tonight but looking at my account it was one of the few days junk bonds did not hit yet another all time high, albeit the decline today in junk was miniscule. I think there may be some bull complacency on this dip but otherwise haven't a clue what is next. I sold some junk bonds today to be safe and presently in a conservative mode at 7.5% in equities, 48% junk bond funds, and 44.5% cash. I may add back some equities tomorrow on a dip but nothing heavy. It has been a great run and I abhor giving back gains but still think the bull has a lot of life left. Would like though to see the bears take over again here like the past four months. Hiking season is starting and not sure I want to get back to the pedal to metal type of trading where every single dollar of my net worth is at risk.

V, I only trade junk and emerging markets (on rare occassions investment grade) not into munis or GNMA. My largest junk holding is STHTX (where I sold some today) which has been a good performer over this cycle because they hold a greater proportion in the lowest rated of junk bonds.

[jdjimenez]

Looking to get back long again but in no hurry. Typical for this type of event to cause a sudden drop but currently trend appears to be intact still. I went to cash just before close on Friday because of Libya issue and was long for a very short time this morning but took profits shortly before Gadhafi began to speak on TV. I believe that Gadhafi will be found to be a coward just like Hussein but will get many of his supports and innocent people killed before this is all over. Also I think this is just the start of things in the Middle East and markets are going to very tough sailing for a while. If I am wrong about Gadhafi and he gets the military involved in a big way then I'll sit in cash till this all dies down. Good day traders may be making the best money for a while and I just haven't been able to get a good handle on that type of trading. My two cents worth and worth exactly that! Good luck all, JDJ

[thespookyone]

I think the best quick "stock answer" here is that, imho, a decent trader with fair experience would wait for the retest and short it with both barrells For myself, at this point, the trend is still up. How will I trade this? Here is what I'm thinking. I'd buy a quick hard drop in the morning to the 1301 area, or so. In absense of that, I'm very keen to look at structure on the bounce/retest to guide me as to what location I want to short on the way back up. Not to frontrun it, because honestly I'm willing to trade this any way it happens-what I'm expecting is an ABC zigzag that completes around 1287-give or take 4 points or so. So far I don't care for the structure as motive here, obviously that could change. Summation is quite high, and a cave in here sems unlikely to me. Also, the 5 and 10% indexes remain above zero at this point-signaling this to be of corrective nature-so far. On the more ominous side is the NAZ, it looks a lot more rough to me-and may fortel a somewhat larger move, twt. I'm almost always on the same page as Don, the fact that he has more bullish conviction than me here truly troubles me-and in a weird way tells me a large move is in the making-one way or the other.

[diogenes227]

Done said it.

FRIDAY AND TODAY

[espresso]

External facts are responsible for market moves only in the agenda of news corporations! The market itself knows before what is doing and I'm afraid all the Ben's manipulation is just transforming this needed double dip in a crash! That's what my signal has been saying and why I have been shorting since December!!! Please be aware that the position posted here (now 1/2 LT ndx@2368 ) is my LT position, I was fully short Friday vst on spy, 3xfinbear and extra ndx, unfortunately I was too much in pain to speak with my LT position underwater for 50points! Friday and all last week the bullz were foaming and they still are I'd like support Arbman on creating a Fib posting indicator for spotting market top Please Fib know that I respect you very much for all your inputs! This LT trade of mine is off weekly and monthly and so difficult to trade and comment. But I WILL postif I think something has changed. JMVHO Espresso

Edited by espresso, 23 February 2011 - 03:28 AM.

[espresso]

Sorry. coming back on the topic! Market has reversed!!! Trade it as you should! Forget the bullz calling.... jmvho