37 replies to this topic

[xtrader]

want to note: in a 10% down move that happens rapidly, nothing works in terms of TA -- except holding short. I do not believe that indicators can predict a 10% down move. They can tell you that it is probable that it WILL COME, but shorter term charts cannot adequately time the beginning of it. Nor can typical patterns.

I realize the levels we have in terms of BB on the VIX or RVX, and that usually means some type of move higher -- except when it doesn't and the volatility moves higher. Only time will tell which type this is -- but we shall know soon enough.

have you tried pitchforks and parallel channels???

[qqqqtrdr]

Xtrader.... I agree... You cannot predict a crash either... However, usually a crash happens after a few days after the market tops.... I'm looking to short, but I do need the 5-day breaking the 10-day... will likely get today even on a bounce... Barry

[xtrader]

but what if there are certain conditions and patterns that always happen just before a 2-3x expanding range (crash is relative) which we might be unaware of? Wudnt that be similar to TA, finding patterns?

[zoropb]

I think the best quick "stock answer" here is that, imho, a decent trader with fair experience would wait for the retest and short it with both barrells

For myself, at this point, the trend is still up.

How will I trade this? Here is what I'm thinking. I'd buy a quick hard drop in the morning to the 1301 area, or so. In absense of that, I'm very keen to look at structure on the bounce/retest to guide me as to what location I want to short on the way back up. Not to frontrun it, because honestly I'm willing to trade this any way it happens-what I'm expecting is an ABC zigzag that completes around 1287-give or take 4 points or so.

So far I don't care for the structure as motive here, obviously that could change. Summation is quite high, and a cave in here sems unlikely to me. Also, the 5 and 10% indexes remain above zero at this point-signaling this to be of corrective nature-so far. On the more ominous side is the NAZ, it looks a lot more rough to me-and may fortel a somewhat larger move, twt.

I'm almost always on the same page as Don, the fact that he has more bullish conviction than me here truly troubles me-and in a weird way tells me a large move is in the making-one way or the other.

I agree with lots of what spooky said. Go figure.

I can see this playing out 2 ways (speaking es) either a move to mid 1320's or one to 1330-1340 both will end with a lower low than yesterday's 1310.25 print. My targets depending on which way it goes is from 1303 to 1275 and should be bought.

[rotrot]

http://s1213.photobu...KLY02222011.png

...yesterday signaled a sell on the attached NDX weekly 'trend trading chart'...since July 2007 the 'trend indicator' has only generated 13 signals...since March 2009 a total of 8 signals...we will soon know the significance of yesterday's sell signal...just a temporary drop or the beginning of a meaningful 'correction'...below is the link to a CNBC clip dated February 22, 2011 at 3:13 PM ET...Thomas DeMark of Market Studies tells CNBC why he sees the S&P 500 falling even further...

rotrot

http://www.cnbc.com/...00006535&play=1

[zoropb]

I think the best quick "stock answer" here is that, imho, a decent trader with fair experience would wait for the retest and short it with both barrells

For myself, at this point, the trend is still up.

How will I trade this? Here is what I'm thinking. I'd buy a quick hard drop in the morning to the 1301 area, or so. In absense of that, I'm very keen to look at structure on the bounce/retest to guide me as to what location I want to short on the way back up. Not to frontrun it, because honestly I'm willing to trade this any way it happens-what I'm expecting is an ABC zigzag that completes around 1287-give or take 4 points or so.

So far I don't care for the structure as motive here, obviously that could change. Summation is quite high, and a cave in here sems unlikely to me. Also, the 5 and 10% indexes remain above zero at this point-signaling this to be of corrective nature-so far. On the more ominous side is the NAZ, it looks a lot more rough to me-and may fortel a somewhat larger move, twt.

I'm almost always on the same page as Don, the fact that he has more bullish conviction than me here truly troubles me-and in a weird way tells me a large move is in the making-one way or the other.

I agree with lots of what spooky said. Go figure.

I can see this playing out 2 ways (speaking es) either a move to mid 1320's or one to 1330-1340 both will end with a lower low than yesterday's 1310.25 print. My targets depending on which way it goes is from 1303 to 1275 and should be bought.

One spot around 1307-08.75 could be a potential low too. I am favoring the 1303-1275 zone as of now and give it an 80% probability.

[NAV]

Thanks for all the responses guys. I am with Spooky here. Unless SPX 1339 is taken out, shorting the bounce sounds like a good bet.

Edited by NAV, 23 February 2011 - 08:57 AM.

[qqqqtrdr]

but what if there are certain conditions and patterns that always happen just before a 2-3x expanding range (crash is relative) which we might be unaware of?

Wudnt that be similar to TA, finding patterns?

Finding patterns is a good way to go about...... But crashes never happen the same way... Big continuous drop over time in $BDI has always preluded market weakness and thus a sell-off. Commodities track $BDI also, but commodities continued to go higher, so $BDI failed this time around........

TA patterns that are signifying the market could crash are in place...

Rydex Ratio is around .40 - This signifies that not enough bears are available to cover to prevent a crash
OEX Put/Call Ratio is high - Institutions are betting on a down trend
Mutual Funds Cash Reserve is lowest it has been in decades.

Please note that I'm not saying we will have a crash.... Chances are a crash will not happen, but we need to manage risk.... I do think Upside is limited here.....

I would not be surprised is we fall back down to at least the 200-day or 200-week MA on the indexes before it is worthwhile to jump back into the market for a medium term trader like myself....

[IndexTrader]

There were postings over the last couple of weeks by many, on the obvious "The trend is up", when we were trading close to the top tick. So what's the read on the trendo-meter now?

Is it still up ? If so, would you buy the dip here ? If not here, where would you ?

Is it down ? If so, are you already short ? If not, where would you short ? Or if you are a one sided bull-only trader, would you go to cash ?

If you dynamically need to determine a entry point for long or short, would you let us know in real-time ?

Or if you belong to the group, which says "I have no clue", then the honesty is appreciated !.

My hourly is on a sell, but the daily missed the sell by a few ticks. I will update here, if my daily goes to a sell.


Let's see how many will stick their necks out and answer a honest trading question.

What does elliot wave say? Is it all over now?

Since your hourly has now gone to a sell, what do you do now? Sell on a rally? Wait for the daily to go to a sell, and then wait for a rally?

As for me, I think the trend is still up regarding the daily. However, I have not bought yet, I'd like to see something that looks like a bottom down here.

IT

[NAV]

There were postings over the last couple of weeks by many, on the obvious "The trend is up", when we were trading close to the top tick. So what's the read on the trendo-meter now?

Is it still up ? If so, would you buy the dip here ? If not here, where would you ?

Is it down ? If so, are you already short ? If not, where would you short ? Or if you are a one sided bull-only trader, would you go to cash ?

If you dynamically need to determine a entry point for long or short, would you let us know in real-time ?

Or if you belong to the group, which says "I have no clue", then the honesty is appreciated !.

My hourly is on a sell, but the daily missed the sell by a few ticks. I will update here, if my daily goes to a sell.


Let's see how many will stick their necks out and answer a honest trading question.

What does elliot wave say? Is it all over now?

Since your hourly has now gone to a sell, what do you do now? Sell on a rally? Wait for the daily to go to a sell, and then wait for a rally?

As for me, I think the trend is still up regarding the daily. However, I have not bought yet, I'd like to see something that looks like a bottom down here.

IT

Firstly, i don't trade on e-wave. Daily is still on a buy and so the e-wave has not yet confirmed a turn.

As for trading, my hourly is on a sell. So i will short the bounce.