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Zweig Breadth Thrust Triggered Today on the S&P 500


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#1 inamosa

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Posted 30 March 2011 - 08:42 PM

Triggered today on S&P 500 (i.e. not NYSE) tape data - 10 day average of Advances / (Advances + Declines).

This signal has a good track record of indicating double digit gains 3-, 6-, and 12-months out.

According to Dr. Zweig a Breadth Thrust occurs when, during a 10-day period, the Breadth Thrust indicator rises from below 40 percent to above 61.5 percent. A “Thrust” indicates that the stock market has rapidly changed from an oversold condition to one of strength, but has not yet become overbought.

Dr. Zweig also points out that there have only been 14 Breadth Thrusts since 1945. The average gain following these 14 Thrusts was 24.6 percent in an average time frame of 11 months. Dr. Zweig also points out that most bull markets begin with a Breadth Thrust.


I'm sharing this information only out of courtesy, mainly for the small number of posters here that actually make useful posts.

I will also mention that the S&P 500 A/D line hit a new high for the year today.
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#2 Echo

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Posted 30 March 2011 - 08:46 PM

Thanks for the headsup. Doc

#3 inamosa

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Posted 30 March 2011 - 08:56 PM

I will also mention: the last two that were triggered: mid-July 2010 and mid-September 2010.
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#4 milbank

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Posted 30 March 2011 - 08:57 PM

Thanks for the headsup.

Doc


Seconded alysomji (even though I don't make useful posts).

"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
--George Bernard Shaw


"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free."
--Johann Wolfgang von Goethe


#5 Slothrop

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Posted 30 March 2011 - 09:02 PM

Actually it did NOT trigger: http://danericsellio...e-30-march.html

#6 inamosa

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Posted 30 March 2011 - 09:10 PM

Actually it did NOT trigger: http://danericsellio...e-30-march.html


Incorrect.

My calculation is based on S&P 500 tape data and I've also confirmed my observation with another colleague who collects said data.

The individual you are referring to must be using NYSE tape data (which is polluted with non-common-stock issues, which are particularly irrelevant given the current interest rate environment) for his computation.
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#7 denmo83

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Posted 30 March 2011 - 09:27 PM

Actually it did NOT trigger: http://danericsellio...e-30-march.html


Daneric has been wrong since June 2009.

#8 mogreen

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Posted 30 March 2011 - 09:52 PM

Only 14 since 1945...and 3 in the last 8months? HMMmm. Still the ones triggered last summer have produced a 25-35% gain in many indexes. I'm not on board on this last one as such...but I can still see us going higher to 2008 highs in XLE,XLB,XME etc. and then a multi year chop lower to midbands....... after a 100% gain from 2008 we slip back slowly to only 60% gains

#9 IYB

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Posted 30 March 2011 - 10:19 PM

Triggered today on S&P 500 (i.e. not NYSE) tape data - 10 day average of Advances / (Advances + Declines).

This signal has a good track record of indicating double digit gains 3-, 6-, and 12-months out.

According to Dr. Zweig a Breadth Thrust occurs when, during a 10-day period, the Breadth Thrust indicator rises from below 40 percent to above 61.5 percent. A “Thrust” indicates that the stock market has rapidly changed from an oversold condition to one of strength, but has not yet become overbought.

Dr. Zweig also points out that there have only been 14 Breadth Thrusts since 1945. The average gain following these 14 Thrusts was 24.6 percent in an average time frame of 11 months. Dr. Zweig also points out that most bull markets begin with a Breadth Thrust.


I'm sharing this information only out of courtesy, mainly for the small number of posters here that actually make useful posts.

I will also mention that the S&P 500 A/D line hit a new high for the year today.

Aly thanks very much for bringing this to our attention. Appreciated. As I'd said elsewhere tonight:

"Much of our work is based on momentum, and the Zweig Breadth Thrust is something we've observed for decades - and have found to be an excellent indication of the power behind a trend. .....And we learned decades ago that for a trader to ignore a breadth thrust is utter and complete folly."

Continued good trading to you, Don

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$RUT&p=D&st=2010-12-01&en=(today)&i=p46151977263&a=225436416&r=225.png

Edited by IYB, 30 March 2011 - 10:24 PM.

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#10 mogreen

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Posted 30 March 2011 - 10:24 PM

Porsche comes back at the bottom...he's always bearish WaveTimer posting every other second...beating his chest to buy and now sell all in the same day! I still think we work our way higher to 1360ish before a correction