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Any brave sword catchers here....


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#11 orange

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Posted 12 April 2011 - 09:57 AM

who still think the trend is up ?

The trend remains up on the daily, weekly, and monthly time periods - what time frame are you looking at...15 minute?


Hi Fib, how do you usually define a trend on the daily (excuse me if I don't remember from the weekly chats!)?

Edited by orange, 12 April 2011 - 09:57 AM.

"When your position is underwater, average down" - Trader Bob

#12 NAV

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Posted 12 April 2011 - 10:08 AM

but I don't see a top beneath a top on the daily.

Fib


That's one way of defining a trend. If your style of trading involves taking 100 point drawdowns that's not a bad definition. Trends can be defined with moving averages, with volume pivots, or pure price based rules.

My definition involves a combination of moving averages and price rules/pivots.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

“I have heard many men talk intelligently, even brilliantly, about something – only to see them proven powerless when it comes to acting on what they believe” - Bernard Baruch

 


#13 Islander

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Posted 12 April 2011 - 10:09 AM

Ultimately the trend is still up, in the next few weeks and into May consolidation and realignment are taking place. The driver is the end of QE2.My guess is crude goes back to 95, more there, and short bonds still and doing well.

Positions in oil and puts on bonds and PM are proving profitable, more to come.

Best, Islander

#14 IndexTrader

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Posted 12 April 2011 - 10:15 AM

but I don't see a top beneath a top on the daily.

Fib


That's one way of defining a trend. If your style of trading involves taking 100 point drawdowns that's not a bad definition. Trends can be defined with moving averages, with volume pivots, or pure price based rules.

My definition involves a combination of moving averages and price rules/pivots.


I would just point out that so far on the ES, we have not closed under either a 20-day or a 50-day moving average (SMA). So whatever averages you're looking at I would assume are fairly short. That must cause considerable whipiness in your daily signals, without of course knowing what other rules you're using.

IT

#15 NAV

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Posted 12 April 2011 - 10:24 AM

So whatever averages you're looking at I would assume are fairly short. That must cause considerable whipiness in your daily signals, without of course knowing what other rules you're using.

IT


Yes, i use shorter MAs. Using MAs alone will not solve the problem. I will leave it at that.

I posted a daily sell on 2/23. I posted a daily buy on 3/24. I posted a sell yesterday. None of the signals have whipsawed. The current signal is still young and in progress. That does not mean i will not get whipsawed. That's part of the game, whether you use faster MAs or slower MAs. But i will post all the signal failures if and when they occur.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

“I have heard many men talk intelligently, even brilliantly, about something – only to see them proven powerless when it comes to acting on what they believe” - Bernard Baruch

 


#16 diogenes227

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Posted 12 April 2011 - 10:37 AM

Bears better not go to lunch today. ;)
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted, W.C. Fields.

#17 IndexTrader

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Posted 12 April 2011 - 10:40 AM

So whatever averages you're looking at I would assume are fairly short. That must cause considerable whipiness in your daily signals, without of course knowing what other rules you're using.

IT


Yes, i use shorter MAs. Using MAs alone will not solve the problem. I will leave it at that.

I posted a daily sell on 2/23. I posted a daily buy on 3/24. I posted a sell yesterday. None of the signals have whipsawed. The current signal is still young and in progress. That does not mean i will not get whipsawed. That's part of the game, whether you use faster MAs or slower MAs. But i will post all the signal failures if and when they occur.


Right, I agree, almost any MA of any setting will whipsaw. To me, that's an argument for using longer averages since they have "less" opportunity to whipsaw. In fact, personally I don't like MAs very much, I was just making the observation. BTW, not criticizing your calls, so far they've worked well. I'm hoping this one doesn't though, for obvious reasons. :D

IT

#18 arbman

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Posted 12 April 2011 - 10:43 AM

NAV, this is the first decent sell off, it will be bought back up, it is like the law of the land. :D Edit: although we may still see 5-6 points lower from here by the close. (ES=1309)

Edited by arbman, 12 April 2011 - 10:44 AM.


#19 vitaminm

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Posted 12 April 2011 - 10:49 AM

I posted a daily sell on 2/23. I posted a daily buy on 3/24..........................


02/22/11 Sold 1315.44
03/21/11 Bought 1298.38

skilled trader's secret?

http://barchart.com/performance.php?sym=$INX&sig=10

Edited by vitaminm, 12 April 2011 - 10:49 AM.

vitaminm

#20 NAV

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Posted 12 April 2011 - 11:07 AM

I'm hoping this one doesn't though, for obvious reasons.


:lol:


NAV, this is the first decent sell off, it will be bought back up, it is like the law of the land


Arb,

I don't disagree. But i am holding this one for larger gains. So i will have to take some heat. Last time i tried to get cute on 3/9 and missed the big decline. That hurts.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

“I have heard many men talk intelligently, even brilliantly, about something – only to see them proven powerless when it comes to acting on what they believe” - Bernard Baruch