40 replies to this topic

[zoropb]

This post..."uh, QE3 is inevitable"...is getting to be as tiresome and tedious as the Zweig Market Breadth posts. Let's reiterate: Ben can't push another QE3 because that would take the long bond above 5% and ruin the "recovery." All he's done is create the ground for tremendous instability in the market. Dr. Hussman calls it balancing bricks at the top of a flagpole.

Term limits is a red herring...has nothing to do with the Fed.

I agree sloth game over after 5% with 3 years of housing inventory out there. I wrote this on my blog this morning some of it I wrote earlier on Nav's...

"btw at this point a QE3 may be a negative more than a positive for the markets as it will send coms to outer space and kill any recovery they are attempting through the stock market. Best scenario would be to interject smaller amounts of cash into the markets over the next 2.5 years at crucial points until the demographics and reduction of housing inventory help out around 2014. If so the chop for these years will drive most traders nuts or broke or both. lol
As I mentioned at the start of this year I expect an oscillator type year not a trend type and so far it has not failed to play out. It could last until the start of 2014. We'll see as we go.
April 14, 2011 7:01 AM"

[tommyt]

[quote name='SemiBizz' date='Apr 14 2011, 09:25 AM' post='572844']
The problem is that we need to be making some hard choices....

But we have these "career" politicians running this thing.

We need to trim term limits down to 1 only.

Get the citizens back in the government and these paid "professionals" OUT


amen brother

[zoropb]

This post..."uh, QE3 is inevitable"...is getting to be as tiresome and tedious as the Zweig Market Breadth posts. Let's reiterate: Ben can't push another QE3 because that would take the long bond above 5% and ruin the "recovery." All he's done is create the ground for tremendous instability in the market. Dr. Hussman calls it balancing bricks at the top of a flagpole.

Term limits is a red herring...has nothing to do with the Fed.

I agree sloth game over after 5% with 3 years of housing inventory out there. I wrote this on my blog this morning some of it I wrote earlier on Nav's...

"btw at this point a QE3 may be a negative more than a positive for the markets as it will send coms to outer space and kill any recovery they are attempting through the stock market. Best scenario would be to interject smaller amounts of cash into the markets over the next 2.5 years at crucial points until the demographics and reduction of housing inventory help out around 2014. If so the chop for these years will drive most traders nuts or broke or both. lol
As I mentioned at the start of this year I expect an oscillator type year not a trend type and so far it has not failed to play out. It could last until the start of 2014. We'll see as we go.
April 14, 2011 7:01 AM"

In addition to this a shift to NG will go a long way to leave some needed cash in the US to go to work here instead of those other countries. Converting trucks and some power generators first. Right now Oil needs to go to about $24 to compete with NG around $4.35. It is a no brainer. This is coming.

Edited by zoropb, 14 April 2011 - 01:37 PM.

[arbman]

Oh-bummer and helicopter-B have managed to let any remaining wealth of US taxpayers in Treasury to be extracted and looted by the sinking banking, so that the bankrupt banking can continue to tell us we are not credit worthy. Then, the govt spending had to be subsidized and there was not enough tax proceeds, but this didn't prevent Fed from turning US Treasury into a Ponzi scheme. Now we have the new banking above the laws that apply to common citizens and a Ponzi scheme govt that won't admit and stop its spending habits. IF you need any historical reference to this situation, it would be T minus a decade or two of the collapsing stages of major economies. The word "change" means new ways to loot the taxpayers, not really anything else...

Edited by arbman, 14 April 2011 - 01:42 PM.

[dasein]

amen brother to arb!

[salsabob]

The government is secondary and reactionary to the real problem. Any one who doesn't understand that is living in the distant past and/or caught up in the latest misdirection and hysteria. Whether its cutting taxes, deficits, helicoptering money in, these are secondary reactive supply-side solutions that don't address the underlying problem. And any government stimulus on the demand side is only going to be proven a bandaid (and in this political environment, a non-starter). What is ironic is that recognition of the real underlying problem is going to come out of China. Have you noticed the recent talk about China moving to more high tech production, i.e. more production, less workers? Have you noticed China's consumer sector as a percent of GDP has actually shrunk? Still think there's an emerging middle class in China, or for that matter India, Brazil, etc, that is going to ride to the rescue and provide sufficent aggregate demand to keep the global economy afloat? If not, do you really think there is something YOUR government can do about that? Have you notice the trickle of stories of on-shoring of production back to the US because new automated processing beats out labor, no matter how cheap, when transport, energy, customer location and stability are factored in? Before you become an ex-pat, have you considered these same factors that are starting to enter boardroom considerations? Still want to outsource yourself? Here's the little secret - the supply side, the production side, has become the easy part (sorry Randians, that sorta does away with any basis for supermen hero worshiping). And its getting easier, a lot easier and that is due to less human involvment. Think about what that means on the demand side - no jobs, no income, no demand. You think the govt cutting taxes, deficits, pushing dollars out the helicopter is going to fix that? That's all Kabuki Theater. It will take time though. In the meantime, enjoy the drama. Maybe make some money.

[NAV]

Nothing ever changes until there is blood in the streets or some real pain.

I agree. And i believe that will happen sooner rather than later. The irresponsible policies cannot go on forever.

[zman]

The government is secondary and reactionary to the real problem.

Any one who doesn't understand that is living in the distant past and/or caught up in the latest misdirection and hysteria.

Whether its cutting taxes, deficits, helicoptering money in, these are secondary reactive supply-side solutions that don't address the underlying problem. And any government stimulus on the demand side is only going to be proven a bandaid (and in this political environment, a non-starter).

What is ironic is that recognition of the real underlying problem is going to come out of China. Have you noticed the recent talk about China moving to more high tech production, i.e. more production, less workers? Have you noticed China's consumer sector as a percent of GDP has actually shrunk? Still think there's an emerging middle class in China, or for that matter India, Brazil, etc, that is going to ride to the rescue and provide sufficent aggregate demand to keep the global economy afloat? If not, do you really think there is something YOUR government can do about that?

Have you notice the trickle of stories of on-shoring of production back to the US because new automated processing beats out labor, no matter how cheap, when transport, energy, customer location and stability are factored in? Before you become an ex-pat, have you considered these same factors that are starting to enter boardroom considerations? Still want to outsource yourself?

Here's the little secret - the supply side, the production side, has become the easy part (sorry Randians, that sorta does away with any basis for supermen hero worshiping). And its getting easier, a lot easier and that is due to less human involvment. Think about what that means on the demand side - no jobs, no income, no demand. You think the govt cutting taxes, deficits, pushing dollars out the helicopter is going to fix that? That's all Kabuki Theater. It will take time though. In the meantime, enjoy the drama. Maybe make some money.

Well put mate.....very good

[zoropb]

The government is secondary and reactionary to the real problem.

Any one who doesn't understand that is living in the distant past and/or caught up in the latest misdirection and hysteria.

Whether its cutting taxes, deficits, helicoptering money in, these are secondary reactive supply-side solutions that don't address the underlying problem. And any government stimulus on the demand side is only going to be proven a bandaid (and in this political environment, a non-starter).

What is ironic is that recognition of the real underlying problem is going to come out of China. Have you noticed the recent talk about China moving to more high tech production, i.e. more production, less workers? Have you noticed China's consumer sector as a percent of GDP has actually shrunk? Still think there's an emerging middle class in China, or for that matter India, Brazil, etc, that is going to ride to the rescue and provide sufficent aggregate demand to keep the global economy afloat? If not, do you really think there is something YOUR government can do about that?

Have you notice the trickle of stories of on-shoring of production back to the US because new automated processing beats out labor, no matter how cheap, when transport, energy, customer location and stability are factored in? Before you become an ex-pat, have you considered these same factors that are starting to enter boardroom considerations? Still want to outsource yourself?

Here's the little secret - the supply side, the production side, has become the easy part (sorry Randians, that sorta does away with any basis for supermen hero worshiping). And its getting easier, a lot easier and that is due to less human involvment. Think about what that means on the demand side - no jobs, no income, no demand. You think the govt cutting taxes, deficits, pushing dollars out the helicopter is going to fix that? That's all Kabuki Theater. It will take time though. In the meantime, enjoy the drama. Maybe make some money.

Yep I agree SB robots in all manner of uses going to change the whole game from now until about 2034 then It gets very interesting as the entire game changes again. The division between the have and have nots will be eclipse by those that can afford the "singularity" (merger of man to machine a new jump in evolution). The nots will be like ants to those that can. All that we think is important now will be useless including food at one point. There is about a 25-40 year window here. Think about what I said as I have for a while and your likely to come to the same logical conclusion... we as humans in our present form will be obsolete once this takes place. How can you or anyone compete against a being with the library of congress in his head working problems in pico seconds or faster. Sprint for an hour at full speed and not break a sweat or stay underwater for 5 hours at a time or more. Lift a car no problem. Live anywhere pretty much including Mars. Powered by a personal power source not food. Dylan's song comes to mind the times they are changing. Evolve or be an Ant in that world.

Edited by zoropb, 14 April 2011 - 02:48 PM.

[CNSZ]

Nothing ever changes until there is blood in the streets or some real pain.

I agree. And i believe that will happen sooner rather than later. The irresponsible policies cannot go on forever.

Totally agree, the issue is how we can preserve our wealth? have been thinking about this for years, still have not find a best way yet.